A Statistical Analysis of Husker QBs, or: Who Should We Blame For Our Disappointment?

[alexhortdog95]

The difference in offenses in the last 10 years is not that great; not particularly when comparing Frost's offense to, say, Osborne's. The largest statistical variance is in attempts, and even then, you could use the lowest (196) and the highest (428) as outliers. 

The further away we get, the more I believe in the Frank Solich curse. 

I responded to a friend via email with this:

Look, I don’t believe in voodoo, or witch craft…but man, they gotta do something right now.  Frank Solich was escorted out of here in such a horrible fashion, and this was Solich on his way out the door:








“Until you do right by me, everything you do is gonna fail!”

Time to go to the chicken coop….ignore Old Mister……”SURE IS NICE….SEEING YOU TWO….TOGETHER AGAIN….”

 

[Landlord]

This is true.  I mean, how much sense would it be to compare Tommie Frazier's stat lines to a QB running Frost's (current) offense.  Frazier only threw enough to keep defenses somewhat honest and not stack everyone in the box.  Tommie never had a season where he threw 100 passes.  Shoot, in 1994 he only threw the ball 44 times all year.    

Comparing certain stats always makes sense. Stats related to efficiency moreso than quantity. 

 

[Undone]

My conclusion is that while, yes, it was most certainly a disappointing year and a regression, he's statistically well within the mean of what production we've gotten from the QB position over the last 10 years. In fact, it's kind of scary how much it looks like Taylor's freshman season (minus rushing production). So yes, it's a disappointment, but it's also mostly what we've gotten from the position in recent history. 

Agreed. +1.

As far as the relationship of the quarterback's performance to the fan base's perception of the final win/loss outcome of any given season, we have to go back and remember how much better Bo was as far as:

1. Offensive line play (both pass blocking and run blocking).

2. Quality running back starters and running back room depth.

Frost is going to get there (and probably fairly soon) in both of those categories. Imagine plugging in Rex or Ameer and some of those offensive lines into this year...we for sure win 7 and probably win 8. We would have blown out Purdue, probably wouldn't have lost to Iowa, and probably score 40 + against Colorado. I really believe that.

The power running game is very likely to be a staple here again as soon as next season and it will change things for the better.

**Edit: Hopefully this isn't taken as a "Bo is/was better than Frost post." Not the point at all.

 

[Cdog923]

Sam Keller.

Keller's 2007 looked like this: 205/325, 63.1%, 2,422 yds, 7.5 YPA, 14 TDs, 10 INTs, 133.7 QBR. 

To go further down the rabbit hole: 

2006 - Zac Taylor: 233/391, 59.6%, 3,197 yds, 8.2 YPA, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 146.1 QBR

2001 - Eric Crouch: 105/189, 55.6%, 1,510 yds, 8.0 YPA, 7 TDs, 10 INTs, 124.3 QBR

1997 - Scott Frost: 88/159, 55.3%, 1,237 yds, 7.8 YPA, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, 126.0 QBR

1995 - Tommie Frazier: 92/163, 56.4%, 1,362 yds, 8.4 YPA, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 156.1 QBR

1994 - Brook Berringer: 94/151, 62.3%, 1,295 yds, 8.6 YPA, 10 TDs, 5 INTs, 149.5 QBR

1983 - Turner Gill: 94/170, 55.3%, 1,516 yds, 8.9 YPA, 14 TDs, 4 INTs, 152.7 QBR

1971 - Jerry Tagge: 154/258, 59.7%, 2,178 yds, 8.4 YPA, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 149.2 QBR

 

[NUance]

Comparing certain stats always makes sense. Stats related to efficiency moreso than quantity. 

Well, sometimes not.  The reason I mentioned Tommie Frazier was because he was a terrible passer.  But he did have pretty fair passing stats (on the few times he threw) because he was among the best running QBs in college football history.  If his 156.1 QBR rating was real he would have been drafted fairly high in the 1996 NFL draft.  But he wasn't.   

 

[Cdog923]

So, Frost runs the Watson/Beck offense? 

This is true.  I mean, how much sense would it be to compare Tommie Frazier's stat lines to a QB running Frost's (current) offense.  Frazier only threw enough to keep defenses somewhat honest and not stack everyone in the box.  Tommie never had a season where he threw 100 passes.  Shoot, in 1994 he only threw the ball 44 times all year.    

No, it means that there isn't enough of a statistical variance to need to differentiate between the offenses; which is why I didn't provide anything past 2009 (until the S&G post above). 

 

[knapplc]

Nope, it's Joe Ganz.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-ganz-1.html

You know I knew that. 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Agreed. +1.

As far as the relation to the quarterback's performance to the fan base's perception of the final win/loss outcome of any given season, we have to go back and remember how much better Bo was as far as:

1. Offensive line play (both pass blocking and run blocking).

2. Quality running back starters and running back room depth.

Frost is going to get there (and probably fairly soon) in both of those categories. Imagine plugging in Rex or Ameer and some of those offensive lines into this year...we for sure win 7 and probably win 8. We would have blown out Purdue, probably wouldn't have lost to Iowa, and probably score 40 + against Colorado. I really believe that.

The power running game is very likely to be a staple here again as soon as next season and it will change things for the better.

**Edit: Hopefully this isn't taken as a "Bo is/was better than Frost post." Not the point at all.

I am interested in seeing where Frost's offense evolves going forward.  I know the QB is the heartbeat of his offense, but I think Frost would prefer is less stress were placed on the QB.  Martinez has been asked to do so much the past 2 years, and it has worn on him physically and mentally.  Frost has also stated that he doesn't want the QB to run as much in the Big Ten, as the QB's have fought injuries, especially this year.

Frost is recruiting all types of skills players at RB, WR, and TE, so I think he would rather have the QB be the "point guard" of the offense, rather than the "scoring guard" which Martinez has been asked to do the past 2 years.

 

[NUance]

No, it means that there isn't enough of a statistical variance to need to differentiate between the offenses; which is why I didn't provide anything past 2009 (until the S&G post above). 

It's more than just sample size.  Our mid 90s offenses were run first offenses.  We only threw the occasional pass to keep defenses honest and take advantage of blatant mismatches when they stacked too many guys on the line.  Like I said in the post above, Tommie had a 156.1 QB rating his senior year.  His rating was inflated because defenses concentrated on stopping the run, not on Tommie's passing.  The next year Brian Griese was rated 138.2 for the #2 ranked 1997 Michigan Vulvarines.  Was Tommie a better passer than Griese?

 

[Cdog923]

It's more than just sample size.  Our mid 90s offenses were run first offenses.  We only threw the occasional pass to keep defenses honest and take advantage of blatant mismatches when they stacked too many guys on the line.  Like I said in the post above, Tommie had a 156.1 QB rating his senior year.  His rating was inflated because defenses concentrated on stopping the run, not on Tommie's passing.  The next year Brian Griese was rated 138.2 for the #2 ranked 1997 Michigan Vulvarines.  Was Tommie a better passer than Griese?

Precisely why I didn't include them in the initial post, and why that I provided more info than just QBR. 

 

[NUance]

Precisely why I didn't include them in the initial post, and why that I provided more info than just QBR. 

Ha ha!  That's why offseason threads about stats are great.  There will always be arguments debates.  

 

[Undone]

I am interested in seeing where Frost's offense evolves going forward.  I know the QB is the heartbeat of his offense, but I think Frost would prefer is less stress were placed on the QB.  Martinez has been asked to do so much the past 2 years, and it has worn on him physically and mentally.  Frost has also stated that he doesn't want the QB to run as much in the Big Ten, as the QB's have fought injuries, especially this year.

Frost is recruiting all types of skills players at RB, WR, and TE, so I think he would rather have the QB be the "point guard" of the offense, rather than the "scoring guard" which Martinez has been asked to do the past 2 years.

Yep. This is just my opinion but I think to your point, it's probably time for us to pretty much throw out what this staff did at UCF as any guaranteed expectation of what we'll do in year 3, 4, 5, etc.

Frost has already showed this evolution. We saw it begin in the first half against Ohio State, and Mills running those wide stretch handoffs against Wisconsin was probably the culmination of that change-up. I expect Mills and Johnson to be the heartbeat of this offense next season. And that's not what I want to happen, as if I'm "Run The Damn Ball 1995 Guy." It's a genuine prediction.

 

[Cdog923]

Ha ha!  That's why offseason threads about stats are great.  There will always be arguments debates.  

Agreed! And this discussion is far better than the inane arguments that have plagued the football forum the past few weeks, IMO. 

It is rather interesting to look back and see with some of those older players and how, not only, their stats match up to present day, but how the game has evolved. For example, Jerry Tagged was 2ND in the country in completion % in '71, and 9th in passing yards. 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Yep. This is just my opinion but I think to your point, it's probably time for us to pretty much throw out what this staff did at UCF as any guaranteed expectation of what we'll do in year 3, 4, 5, etc.

Frost has already showed this evolution. We saw it begin in the first half against Ohio State, and Mills running those wide stretch handoffs against Wisconsin was probably the culmination of that change-up. I expect Mills and Johnson to be the heartbeat of this offense next season. And that's not what I want to happen, as if I'm "Run The Damn Ball 1995 Guy." It's a genuine prediction.

I agree with you.  The coaches had 1/2 a year to figure out what Mills does best (and Mills figuredout how to be a 1 cut runner), so he and Johnson should be bigger weapons in the offense.  Throw in using Wandale a more effective number of touches, and the offense could evolve into a more RB-centric offense.  I think Frost would have liked to have done that this year but Mo threw that off course.

 

[BIG ERN]

Frost had to be punished for his two years at Stanford. He can now breathe in year 3