cheekygeek
New member
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Seriously, I learned to read weather models and Forecast Discussions when I was actively chasing storms. Here is what the latest Forecast Discussion says about Saturday night:
So, the feature you want to be looking at is the cold front location on Saturday, which is like a bulldozer pushing the less dense air ahead of it and causing lift that becomes convective storms. Models can only guess at the location, but the day of the event you need to watch the real conditions. I like to use the SPC Composite Map and click the box on the left showing the Fronts (it updates once an hour). The problem with the language is that they don't know if it is going to stall or sink south.
Here is what where one model shows the cold front at game time.
The models are showing a TON of gunpowder in the area and more SW of Lincoln (which could be bad because the storms will be moving SW to NE that day). The (possibly) good news is that the storms should be supercells. Forecast language will be for "isolated storms" which means territory between the cells. If you are in the path of a supercell, not so good with hail and high wind being the main threat tomorrow unless you are in the Grand Island to York areas. But if you are not in the direct path of a cell you may not see anything until later in the evening when the discreet supercells merge and become a big MCS (widespread storms/rain over a large area).
There are lots of model runs to go between now and gametime. And there will be differences between models. Gametime is JUST becoming available on the HRRR shortrange model, which goes out 36 hrs on the twelves (Zulu time). I'll update this post with the simulated reflectivity of that model run when it gets to hour 36. The last run it was showing the convective line being well south of Lincoln. Let's hope that trend continues.
So, the feature you want to be looking at is the cold front location on Saturday, which is like a bulldozer pushing the less dense air ahead of it and causing lift that becomes convective storms. Models can only guess at the location, but the day of the event you need to watch the real conditions. I like to use the SPC Composite Map and click the box on the left showing the Fronts (it updates once an hour). The problem with the language is that they don't know if it is going to stall or sink south.
Here is what where one model shows the cold front at game time.
The models are showing a TON of gunpowder in the area and more SW of Lincoln (which could be bad because the storms will be moving SW to NE that day). The (possibly) good news is that the storms should be supercells. Forecast language will be for "isolated storms" which means territory between the cells. If you are in the path of a supercell, not so good with hail and high wind being the main threat tomorrow unless you are in the Grand Island to York areas. But if you are not in the direct path of a cell you may not see anything until later in the evening when the discreet supercells merge and become a big MCS (widespread storms/rain over a large area).
There are lots of model runs to go between now and gametime. And there will be differences between models. Gametime is JUST becoming available on the HRRR shortrange model, which goes out 36 hrs on the twelves (Zulu time). I'll update this post with the simulated reflectivity of that model run when it gets to hour 36. The last run it was showing the convective line being well south of Lincoln. Let's hope that trend continues.
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