Best/Worst Case for 2016 Huskers

[Enhance]

Talent alone is not a big advantage when said talent wasn't directly recruited for the current system in place. Talent helps overcome some obstacles, but that is still the big one in our way.

Overrated excuse, imo. It makes a lot of difference at QB. It makes almost no difference at most other spots. Running backs and receivers can play in any system. You might have linemen that are better run blockers or pass blockers but they still have to do both. Defensive linemen still rush the passer. Linebackers still have to tackle. DBs still have to cover.

The techniques may change. And they may be asked to do different things. But other than QB, you're really not recruiting a different type of player for any other position. You're after the best talent and teaching them how you want to do things.

This is mostly true, yet my point stands based off the following:
QB play is where your chance of winning games centers around. Our current QB struggled in the his 1st year in this system. The WR targets he has make up fo a lot of his shortcomings, but he is still a square peg in a round hole. It's not his fault either and I expect him to make the most of his final year but a square peg can only do so much to fill a circular hole.

That and, ya know our line play is a bit of a mystery heading into the season. Not that that's specifically a talent issue though, on defense talent is huge but experience is thinner.

I pretty much agree with this.

But it's quite a ways from what you posted the first time. We still have a talent advantage on basically everyone we play. Doesn't matter what system they were recruited for, they're still better than the guy across from them. Plus, how may of the guys on other teams are playing with guys their coaches didn't recruit? It didn't seem to hurt Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue against us last year.

I can't really speak for Illinois/Purdue, but one thing Wisconsin seems to do pretty well is stick with a team identity from coach to coach. You know what you're going to get with Wisconsin and that's strong linemen, a heavy focus on the running game and opportunistic passing. Nebraska hasn't had that identity luxury from coach to coach which, in my opinion, can make it difficult to maintain consistency.
I think best case scenario is 10 wins this year. I don't know think we have the right formula for anything more. I think six or less wins would certainly be a disappointment and an unacceptable season. This team is capable of winning at least 8 games even with talent losses they've sustained.

I think we will see a change in offense to a more passing oriented scheme at Wisconsin, and that will benefit NU greatly during the next few years.

I think you may be right about Wisconsin and IMO it would be a big mistake. I think Cryst does like to sling the ball around though. Wisconsin's identity is what makes them successful. They arn't flashy on the surface, but winning 10 games most years is alwyas flashy.

Some seem to forget that Paul Chryst is as familiar with the foundation of Wisconsin football as anyone not named Barry Alvarez. He was an Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin for several seasons before taking the head job at Pitt. He orchestrated tremendous rushing attacks with the likes of Brian Calhoun, PJ Hill, John Clay, James White, and Montee Ball.

Not sure what makes your fan base think Wisconsin becomes a pass-oriented scheme...? Paul Chryst has always adapted to the talent available. In 2015, with Corey Clement sidelined and a converted defensive back and Freshman (RS) at running back, we saw more usage (single-season school record in pass attempts and completions) out of a competent, though below-average Joel Stave. In 2010, with a game-manager in Scott Tolzien, Chryst had two RB's that rushed for 1,000+ yards and another that was four yards short of. In 2011, with a generational-talent like Russell Wilson at QB, Wisconsin still only passed about 38% of the time.

Again, with a head coach that has a better understanding of how Wisconsin football was built than just about anyone not named Barry Alvarez, I highly doubt you'll see a fundamental change in offensive philosophy.

Careful with the generalizations there, friend.

I agree with you, though. I don't see any real evidence to suggest Wisconsin is going to "change" their offense to a more pass oriented scheme, particularly since Chryst used to be the OC and was hired by Barry Alvarez. As long as BA's in charge, I don't foresee Wisconsin doing anything to change the identity of their football team.

 

[huKSer]

Worst case - 0-12

Best case - 15-0

While this is true. I always hate these comments. It's like running away from confrontation.
However, 0-12 is more likely than 15-0.

But we all know that NEITHER of those are going to happen. 6-6 to 9-3 is the appropriate range given the issues NU has with new personnel and lets set the record straight and realize that the offense NU put out in the UCLA game is not going to be the staple offense of the 2016 season.

How about most likely best case and most likely worst case?
Luck and injuries play so much into the equation. Royals are a case in point - last year very few injuries, this year EVERYBODY is hurt. Bo's last year had plenty of miracle wins, Reilly had plenty of miracle losses.

It's Riley.

Not Reilly

Thanks

 

[cm husker]

I'm referring to a reported bottom 1/3 of total signees during the past few years. I'll confirm the numbers but signing so few players will have an impact

There are quite a few factors that go into each signing class. Wisconsin suffers little attrition, is well-known for awarding scholarships to walk-ons, a larger number of freshmen take a redshirt year, and the program never over-signs. This skews those senior numbers quite a bit, and it can result in smaller class sizes --- take this recruiting cycle, for example.

The "total signees during the past few years" has not resulted in a diluted on-field product.

I guess we'll all need to wait and see where Wisconsin goes under Cryst

Some may say the same about Riley at Nebraska

Yep.

Just sad for NU to be in "wait and see" mode when it's self-inflicted, unlike what happened at Wisky.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I think Wisconsin will take a hit because (a) they recruited poorly starting in around 2013, at least from a pure numbers perspective, and (b) they don't have Alvarez to keep the reins pulled in on Chryst.

If you look at his years at Pitt, he was very "pro style" oriented, with QBs throwing almost 400 passes during each of his first two seasons (more than 30 attempts per game). And this past year he threw it more than 30 times a game.

Wisconsin recruiting is fine. They consistently rank outside the Top-30, if not Top-40. It is what it always has been, and has seen an uptick under Paul Chryst.

Tom Savage threw nearly 400 passes in 2013 with a very talented Tyler Boyd at WR. Why not take advantage of that? In 2014, with a much-improved James Conner (RB) and OL, Pittsburgh ran the ball over 60% of the time. Again, Paul Chryst adapts to the talent around him. He has done it his entire coaching career, from Oregon State, to Wisconsin, to Pittsburgh.

Joel Stave set school records in pass attempts/completions in 2015 because Corey Clement was sidelined. His backups? A converted defensive back, a converted linebacker, and a freshman (RS). It's no wonder why Wisconsin threw the ball so much!

Many teams, including most of the best teams, are able to feature quarterbacks who throw 30 or more attempts a game while still maintaining a robust rushing attack.

As I recall, Melvin Gordon ran wild in a season where Stave and McEvoy still passed plenty.

You're thinking of 2014, when Gordon had 2500 yards?

That Wisky team averaged 23 attempts and 150 passing yards per game that season (and more than double that number of attempts and yards in the running game).

Yes, that's the season I was thinking about.

Pro style passing is not merely the number of attempts, but the skillset of the QB, the types of passes attempted and the willingness to run heavy if that's what's working.

Joel Stave was a classic pro-style quarterback. He threw 30 times in the win against Purdue. The next week he threw 11 times in the win against Nebraska. When Ohio State shut Gordon down cold, they had Stave throw 43 times.

They ran better than they passed, but Wisconsin was never afraid to pass.

 

[cm husker]

If you're for for a 2-1 rathio of run to pass, I'm right there with you.

I'd just prefer it run by a mobile QB with option incorporated. I find that to be a much more dynamic and interesting offense to watch. Just a personal opinion.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I'm totally for a 2:1 run pass ratio.

I've just observed that the better defenses use a Stop The Run First strategy.

So it's nice having a good passing quarterback when the ratio needs adjusting.

It would be great if he could run fast and takes hits, too, but now we're just being selfish.

 

[Scratchtown]

I'm totally for a 2:1 run pass ratio.

I've just observed that the better defenses use a Stop The Run First strategy.

So it's nice having a good passing quarterback when the ratio needs adjusting.

It would be great if he could run fast and takes hits, too, but now we're just being selfish.

Yea. It would be nice to have Vince Young or Cam Newton

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

best case is probably 8 wins with all the holes we left from last year and worst case is another 5 win season

 

[MichiganDad3]

Best case

10 wins

This requires

TA to have no more interceptions than TDs

A healthy DPE

Someone to play above average at DT

Worst case

5 wins

Some possible causes

TA injury

Injuries on OL

Coaching staff continues to lose in the last seconds of the game

Poor IB play

 

[Scratchtown]

There is absolutely no factual information about TA that should lead us to believe he's going to all of a sudden become a competent passing QB in year 4 as a starter.

Lets remember....

Tommy was #2 in the nation in interceptions last season with 16.

We are replacing starters from an OL that wasn't particularly good to begin with in 2015.

Virtually no consistent production in the rushing game last year as a whole.

Replacing 2 NFL drafted DT's. (Not upgraded yet)

Still young or average DE's. (Parrella could be enough to make up for lack of talent)

Secondary that was 7th worst in the nation in yards given up 290 yards per game. Company with Kansas, Indiana, Oregon, and Kansas State.

Play calling that was cause for remotes being thrown into tv's, windows, walls, significant others, and pets.

We have no factual information to believe NU is in contention to win 10-11 games yet. It can happen but the facts are holding against it.

Best case

10 wins

This requires

TA to have no more interceptions than TDs

A healthy DPE

Someone to play above average at DT

Worst case

5 wins

Some possible causes

TA injury

Injuries on OL

Coaching staff continues to lose in the last seconds of the game

Poor IB play

TA didn't have more INT's than TD's last year. Still went 5-7

 

[MichiganDad3]

There is absolutely no factual information about TA that should lead us to believe he's going to all of a sudden become a competent passing QB in year 4 as a starter.

Lets remember....

Tommy was #2 in the nation in interceptions last season with 16.

We are replacing starters from an OL that wasn't particularly good to begin with in 2015.

Virtually no consistent production in the rushing game last year as a whole.

Replacing 2 NFL drafted DT's. (Not upgraded yet)

Still young or average DE's. (Parrella could be enough to make up for lack of talent)

Secondary that was 7th worst in the nation in yards given up 290 yards per game. Company with Kansas, Indiana, Oregon, and Kansas State.

Play calling that was cause for remotes being thrown into tv's, windows, walls, significant others, and pets.

We have no factual information to believe NU is in contention to win 10-11 games yet. It can happen but the facts are holding against it.

Best case

10 wins

This requires

TA to have no more interceptions than TDs

A healthy DPE

Someone to play above average at DT

Worst case

5 wins

Some possible causes

TA injury

Injuries on OL

Coaching staff continues to lose in the last seconds of the game

Poor IB play

TA didn't have more INT's than TD's last year. Still went 5-7

Did someone kick your dog today?

I agree with all your points, and I never said TA had more ints than TDs last year, but if he has more ints than TDs this year we are doomed. It is sad to me that the best case for the great Husker machine is no longer the MNC.

 

[Redux]

Best case TA: 62% passing comp.

Worst case TA: 53% passing comp.

Because science

 

[Scratchtown]

There is absolutely no factual information about TA that should lead us to believe he's going to all of a sudden become a competent passing QB in year 4 as a starter.

Lets remember....

Tommy was #2 in the nation in interceptions last season with 16.

We are replacing starters from an OL that wasn't particularly good to begin with in 2015.

Virtually no consistent production in the rushing game last year as a whole.

Replacing 2 NFL drafted DT's. (Not upgraded yet)

Still young or average DE's. (Parrella could be enough to make up for lack of talent)

Secondary that was 7th worst in the nation in yards given up 290 yards per game. Company with Kansas, Indiana, Oregon, and Kansas State.

Play calling that was cause for remotes being thrown into tv's, windows, walls, significant others, and pets.

We have no factual information to believe NU is in contention to win 10-11 games yet. It can happen but the facts are holding against it.

Best case

10 wins

This requires

TA to have no more interceptions than TDs

A healthy DPE

Someone to play above average at DT

Worst case

5 wins

Some possible causes

TA injury

Injuries on OL

Coaching staff continues to lose in the last seconds of the game

Poor IB play

TA didn't have more INT's than TD's last year. Still went 5-7

Did someone kick your dog today?

I agree with all your points, and I never said TA had more ints than TDs last year, but if he has more ints than TDs this year we are doomed. It is sad to me that the best case for the great Husker machine is no longer the MNC.

I wasn't intentionally targeting you with that TA bit. I was making an observation that while he had more TD's than INT's last year.

Basically I think if he can widen the gap between TD's to INT's then we're on to something. Each one of those INT's is a potential TD drive.