Big 10 West Race

This game could have been like 2009 Mizzou with Suh and the team taking that step forward on the road. But instead team did not rise up. A couple somebodies have got to rise up and make a play. Do it not and second best you will be.

Also though the team D surprised me how physical in stopping Clement. Surprised Wisc too. Overall physicality was a step up tonight

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Your boys looked tough last night. Frankly I was surprised that they didn't win it.

In any case, the Nebraska-Minnesota game in two weeks is looking pretty big right now. Not that you guys can look past Ohio State, and my Gophers can't even overlook lowly Purdue. But that upcoming game looks to have serious implications.

 
I have to say I think it is more likely that UW loses to Northwestern than Nebraska beats OSU. Nebraska D really struggled containing the edge and got some gifts from UW's QBs that kept the game close. I see OSU's speed on the edge giving Nebraska fits and TA looked like he was running on fumes by the end of the game yesterday and looked pretty poor throughout (12-31 159 0-2 isn't going to get it done unless the other team plays like crap). Nebraska is on the right track and showed much improved mental toughness but I think they still have a ways to go to really compete for league titles. Giving up 10 yards per carry to a backup RB, many of which came late in the game after your D wore down, while your QB completes less than 40% of his passes with two terrible picks sounds disturbingly familiar.

Evanston has been UW's bugaboo forever (lost the last 4 games there) and I wouldn't be shocked to see a bit of a mental lapse from UW now that the ridiculous part of the schedule is over. Badgers could very well lose next week opening up the West for NU, but I think OSU is going to be a rude awakening for the Huskers.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Both teams have decent if not good chances of dropping at least one more game.

Wisconsin at Northwestern next week is gonna be a battle. They also end against Minnesota in a big rivalry game. We've obviously got OSU, but Minnesota and Iowa are both going to be really tough games as well.

To say that it comes down to UW/NW and NU/OSU is way too premature. There's three huge games after that.

 
The reality is, we're a healthy OL (or a PI call) from winning that game. I think we've got a shot next weekend at OSU, and if we somehow pull it off, we can get to Indy.

 
Here (again) are statistical profiles of Nebraska's schedule based on the F/+ rankings:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-nebraska-advanced-statistical-profile

And the FPI rankings:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2016

Chances of a Husker victory in it's remaining games:

Ohio State: 19% / 14% (Ave: 16.5%)

Minnesota: 65% / 76% (Ave: 70.5%)

Maryland: 82% / 83% (Ave: 82.5%)

Iowa: 56% / 50% (Ave: 53%)

odds of winning out (one conference loss) = 5.0%

odds of finishing with two conference losses = 33.4%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chances of a Badger victory in it's remaining games:

Northwestern: 76%/66% (Ave: 71%)

Illinois: 95%/93% (Ave: 94%)

Purdue: 97%/93% (Ave: 95%)

Minnesota 79%/82% (Ave: 80.5%)

Odds of winning out (two conf. losses) = 51.0%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chances of a Wildcat victory in its remaining games:

Wisconsin: 24/34 (Ave: 29%)

Purdue: 84/83 (Ave: 83.5%)

Minnesota: 38/47 (Ave: 42.5%)

Illinois: 96/84 (Ave: 90%)

Odds of winning out (two conf losses) = 9.3%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chances of a Gopher victory in its remaining games:

Purdue 93/88 (90.5%)

Nebraska 35/24 (29.5%)

Northwestern 62/53 (57.5%)

Wisconsin 21/18 (19.5%)

Odds of winning out (two conf. losses) = 3.0%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chances of an Iowa victory in it's remaining games:

Penn State: 24/34 (29%)

Michigan: 7/12 (9.5%)

Illinois 75/77 (76%)

Nebraska 44/50 (47%)

Odds of winning out (2 conf. losses) = 1.0%

 
Total odds for conference winners (I think)

One-conf-loss Nebraska champions = 5.0%

Two-conf-loss Wisconsin champions = 51%(Wisc wins out) x 95%(Nebraska loses at least one more) = 48.5%

Two-conf-loss Nebraska champions = 33.4%(NU 2 loss) x 49% (Wisc loses at least one more) = 16.4%

Two-conf-loss Northwestern champs = 9.3% (NW 2 loss) x 61.6% (Nebraska loses at least two more) x 99% (Iowa loses at least one more) = 5.7%

Two-conf-loss Minnesota champs = 3.0% (MN 2 loss) x 99% (Iowa loses at least one more) = 3.0%

Chance of a Three-conference-loss champion = 21.4%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I have no idea how to calculate out all the possibilities for a 3-loss champ, so I'll just assume it would be proportional to the odds of a 1 or 2-loss champ. Adding it all together..........

Possible odds of winning the division:

Wisconsin: 62%

Nebraska: 27%

Northwestern: 7%

Minnesota: 4%

Iowa: <1%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I would not be the least bit surprised if NW beats Wisky this weekend. The game is a 11am kick in Evanston, therefore there will be no atmosphere. NW seems to be playing good ball lately (beat Iowa, whooped MSU, took OSU to the end). And Wisconsin is beat up and has to be mentally spent after playing 4 dog fights in a row (Mich, OSU, Iowa, NU).

 
Back
Top