knapplc
Active member
Remember the ecstasy back in 2007 when Bo was announced as our new head coach? We got the guy we wanted, the guy who would fix the defensive woes inflicted upon us by the worst Defensive Coordinator ever, Kevin Cosgrove. No more embarrassing losses, the return of the real Blackshirts, the defense would once again be something to be proud of. That's the bill of goods we were sold back then.
Early on, it looked like that may actually be the case. We lost four games in 2008, but it was a transition year, and we only had one blowout loss (for the purposes of this post, "blowout loss" is defined as any loss by double digits). The next year, the Year of Suh, we only had one blowout loss. If we'd have had an offense, any offense, we may have won the conference, and with a good offense we likely could have been a national title contender.
But recruiting mishaps and attrition (grades, injuries, etc) decimated those first few classes, and the coaching wasn't able to fill in the talent gap as those classes came to comprise more and more of the starting two-deep.
In fact, the longer we've been in the Pelini Era, the worse the defense has gotten. We may owe Kevin Cosgrove a hefty apology.
Since 2008, Pelini's first year, Nebraska has been blown out 14 times.
Blowout Losses by Season
2008 - 2
2009 - 1
2010 - 1
2011 - 3
2012 - 3
2013 - 4
Perhaps the most alarming thing about our blowouts isn't the increasing regularity, it's the diversity of teams doing the thrashing. If it was just one or two teams that had our number, that would be (a bit) more understandable. But it's not; 13 different teams are responsible for those 14 blowouts:
The 13 teams that have beaten us by 10+ in the Pelini Era
Year - Opponent
2008 - Missouri
2008 - Oklahoma
2009 - Texas Tech
2010 - Washington
2011 - Wisconsin *
2011 - Michigan
2011 - South Carolina
2012 - Ohio State
2012 - Wisconsin *
2012 - Georgia
2013 - UCLA
2013 - Minnesota
2013 - Michigan State
2013 - Iowa
Wisconsin (2011, 2012) is the only repeat offender. It's not as if Bo's defense has been trounced by one or two teams or coaches. Whatever the reason, whether it's skill or scheme or coaching or whatever, team after team has been able to figure this defense out, and score on it with alarming frequency.
And it's not like the losses all happen on the road. Five times Nebraska has been blasted in Lincoln:
Blowouts by location
Year - Location
2008 - Lincoln
2008 - Norman
2009 - Lincoln
2010 - San Diego
2011 - Madison
2011 - Ann Arbor
2011 - Orlando
2012 - Columbus
2012 - Indianapolis
2012 - Orlando
2013 - Lincoln
2013 - Minneapolis
2013 - Lincoln
2013 - Lincoln
Three of those blowout home losses happened last season. Four were at neutral sites (three straight bowl losses, and the 2012 Big Ten Championship) and five were true road games.
Nor is it that Bo's teams are being beaten by great quality opponents. Shockingly, only five (about 1/3) of these blowout losses are coming at the hands of top-ten teams.
Opponent rank by blowout
Year - Rank
2008 - 4
2008 - 4
2009 -
2010 -
2011 - 7
2011 - 20
2011 - 10
2012 - 12
2012 -
2012 - 6
2013 - 16
2013 -
2013 - 14
2013 -
Nine of our opponents, including the last four straight, have blown out a Bo Pelini team when that opponent has been ranked outside of the top ten. An astounding five of those opponents were unranked when they blew out a Bo Pelini team.
The records of these opponents doesn't paint a much better picture. We're not losing to top-tier teams, we're losing to teams that have mediocre records.
Opponent Win/Loss Records
Year - ( W - L )
2008 - ( 10 - 4 )
2008 - ( 12 - 2 )
2009 - ( 9 - 4 )
2010 - ( 7 - 6 )
2011 - ( 11 - 3 )
2011 - ( 11 - 2 )
2011 - ( 11 - 2 )
2012 - ( 12 - 0 )
2012 - ( 8 - 6 )
2012 - ( 12 - 2 )
2013 - ( 10 - 3 )
2013 - ( 8 - 5 )
2013 - ( 13 - 1 )
2013 - ( 8 - 5 )
Three of the last six opponents to blow us out by ten or more points have finished their season with five or more losses. Six of our opponents have had four losses or more, while only one opponent (2012 Ohio State) went undefeated, and only one more (2013 Sparty) had one loss.
So, how does Nebraska compare to our opponents' opponents in those years? Not all that well, and the longer we go the less impressive those losses are. Only three of these opponents had a top-ten Strength of Schedule, and only one of the last ten opponents to blow us out had a top 25 SoS.
Opponent Strength of Schedule
Year - SOS
2008 - 10
2008 - 2
2009 - 56
2010 - 2
2011 - 53
2011 - 33
2011 - 29
2012 - 54
2012 - 39
2012 - 31
2013 - 13 (UCLA)
2013 - 60
2013 - 62
2013 - 49
The average SoS of the last ten opponents to blow out Nebraska: 42.3
The average margin of defeat in these 14 games is more than three touchdowns (22.9pts).
Increasingly it's the defense at the forefront of the breakdown. Nebraska has scored on average 21 points in these losses. Over the last ten blowout losses that average climbs to 24 points per game. That's more than enough to win most every game, or at the very least to be competitive.
The problem is that we're giving up more and more points as the Bo Pelini Era goes on. In those 14 blowout losses the defense averages 44 points allowed. Over the last ten games that jumps to 46 points allowed. In those last ten blowout losses, the fewest points allowed was 30. The "Blackshirts" gave up 35 or more points eight times in the last ten blowout losses alone. Over all 14 games they've given up 40 or more points nine times.
Nine times? I don't remember them giving up that many points nine times.
Well, wake up and smell the coffee, Husker fans! It's a fool's paradise. We're being led down the primrose path!
Yet another dagger to the heart of Husker Fan - we're in increasingly rarefied air when it comes to points given up against these teams. With the exception of a few opponents, Nebraska gave up as many points as the dregs of college football these years.
Nebraska's Points-Allowed Peers
Year - Opponent - Who did they score this many points against?
2008 - Missouri - Scored 52+ on Illinois, SE MO St., Nevada, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State
2008 - Oklahoma - Scored 62+ on Texas A&M, Texas Tech, & Missouri
2009 - Texas Tech - Scored 31+ on North Dakota, Rice, New Mexico, Kansas State, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan State
2010 - Washington - Scored 19+ on Syracuse, Nebraska, USC, Oregon St, UCLA, Washington St, Nebraska
2011 - Wisconsin - Scored 48+ on UNLV, N. Illinois, SoDak, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue
2011 - Michigan - Scored 45+ on Minnesota, Nebraska
2011 - South Carolina - Scored 30+ on E Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska
2012 - Ohio State - Scored 63+ on Nebraska
2012 - Wisconsin - Scored 70+ on Nebraska
2012 - Georgia - Scored 45+ on Buffalo, FLA Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, GA Southern, Nebraska
2013 - UCLA - Scored 41+ on Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico St, Colorado, Washington, Virginia Tech
2013 - Minnesota - Scored 34+ on UNLV, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Nebraska, Indiana
2013 - Michigan State - Scored 41+ on Youngstown St, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
2013 - Iowa - Scored 38+ on Western Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska
For those of you scoring along at home, we were the victim of the most points scored by Wisconsin and Ohio State in 2012. In 2013, we were among such company as Nevada, New Mexico State and Colorado in being victimized by UCLA. We ranked right up there with UNLV, New Mexico State and San Jose State in giving up a boatload of points to Minnesota. We were among a few elite in giving up 41 or more points against Sparty, joining the ranks of Youngstown State, Indiana and Illinois. And most gloriously, we gave up more points to Iowa (that's 8-5 Iowa, mind you) than all their other opponents except for Western Michigan and Purdue.
But lest you think that defense is the only side of the ball with problems, here's who scored around about the same points as we did against these juggernauts in those years...
Nebraska's Points-Scored Peers
Year - Opponent - Who scored this many points against them?
2008 - Missouri - Allowed 17 to Illinois, Nevada, Buffalo, Nebraska, OK State, Texas, Baylor, KSU, ISU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Northwestern
2008 - Oklahoma - Allowed 28+ to Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M & Oklahoma State
2009 - Texas Tech - Allowed 10+ to every opponent.
2010 - Washington - Allowed 7+ to every opponent
2011 - Wisconsin - Allowed 17+ to UNLV, Nebraska, Michigan St., Ohio St, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Oregon
2011 - Michigan - Allowed 17+ to Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio St, Virginia Tech
2011 - South Carolina - Allowed 13+ to E Carolina, Georgia, Navy, Auburn, Arkansas, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska
2012 - Ohio State - Allowed 38+ to Nebraska, Indiana
2012 - Wisconsin - Allowed 31+ to Nebraska
2012 - Georgia - Allowed 31+ to Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska
2013 - UCLA - Allowed 21+ to Nebraska, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Washington, Arizona St
2013 - Minnesota - Allowed 23+ to UNLV, San Jose St, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana
2013 - Michigan State - Allowed 28+ to Indiana, Nebraska
2013 - Iowa - Allowed 17+ to Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, LSU
These numbers show us that, early on in the Bo Pelini Era when the offense was lacking, the majority of teams scored the same or more points against our blowout opponents as Nebraska did, meaning the defenses would have had to play superlative football to avoid those blowouts - and clearly they didn't. But as Bo's tenure wore on, fewer teams were scoring as much as we were, and when they did, for the most part they were pretty decent teams (with a few exceptions, of course).
In 2012 the Huskers scored more points against against Wisconsin than any other team (31), and the funny thing is, the #2 scoring team on Wiscy that year? Nebraska (30) in the conference opener. Also in 2012, no team scored more points against undefeated Ohio State than the Huskers (38). And only three other teams, all SEC teams, scored as many points against Georgia that year as Nebraska.
And yet, we lost those games. And four more blowout losses in 2013. Granted, those scoring deficiencies in 2013 can largely be attributed to the loss of Taylor Martinez, but that's small comfort in the overall picture here.
So there's a bunch of stats thrown against the wall. What sticks?
To me, it's this: That despite the excuses (valid or not is up for you to judge) of conference change, injuries to key positions, youth or whatever, it's a head coach's responsibility to field a competent team.
Blowout losses are never acceptable. They are even less acceptable at a place like Nebraska, and they are nigh on unforgivable when the culprit is mostly the defense, and the head coach's area of expertise is stingy defense.
I'd like to end this with some rah-rah "we're going to do it this year!" closer, but the bottom line is, if it isn't fixed by now, why would it be fixed next season?
EDIT - Bye Bye Big XII has done a breakdown of turnovers in these games that makes a perfect addendum to this post. Scroll down in this thread or click HERE for his further analysis.
Early on, it looked like that may actually be the case. We lost four games in 2008, but it was a transition year, and we only had one blowout loss (for the purposes of this post, "blowout loss" is defined as any loss by double digits). The next year, the Year of Suh, we only had one blowout loss. If we'd have had an offense, any offense, we may have won the conference, and with a good offense we likely could have been a national title contender.
But recruiting mishaps and attrition (grades, injuries, etc) decimated those first few classes, and the coaching wasn't able to fill in the talent gap as those classes came to comprise more and more of the starting two-deep.
In fact, the longer we've been in the Pelini Era, the worse the defense has gotten. We may owe Kevin Cosgrove a hefty apology.
Since 2008, Pelini's first year, Nebraska has been blown out 14 times.
Blowout Losses by Season
2008 - 2
2009 - 1
2010 - 1
2011 - 3
2012 - 3
2013 - 4
Perhaps the most alarming thing about our blowouts isn't the increasing regularity, it's the diversity of teams doing the thrashing. If it was just one or two teams that had our number, that would be (a bit) more understandable. But it's not; 13 different teams are responsible for those 14 blowouts:
The 13 teams that have beaten us by 10+ in the Pelini Era
Year - Opponent
2008 - Missouri
2008 - Oklahoma
2009 - Texas Tech
2010 - Washington
2011 - Wisconsin *
2011 - Michigan
2011 - South Carolina
2012 - Ohio State
2012 - Wisconsin *
2012 - Georgia
2013 - UCLA
2013 - Minnesota
2013 - Michigan State
2013 - Iowa
Wisconsin (2011, 2012) is the only repeat offender. It's not as if Bo's defense has been trounced by one or two teams or coaches. Whatever the reason, whether it's skill or scheme or coaching or whatever, team after team has been able to figure this defense out, and score on it with alarming frequency.
And it's not like the losses all happen on the road. Five times Nebraska has been blasted in Lincoln:
Blowouts by location
Year - Location
2008 - Lincoln
2008 - Norman
2009 - Lincoln
2010 - San Diego
2011 - Madison
2011 - Ann Arbor
2011 - Orlando
2012 - Columbus
2012 - Indianapolis
2012 - Orlando
2013 - Lincoln
2013 - Minneapolis
2013 - Lincoln
2013 - Lincoln
Three of those blowout home losses happened last season. Four were at neutral sites (three straight bowl losses, and the 2012 Big Ten Championship) and five were true road games.
Nor is it that Bo's teams are being beaten by great quality opponents. Shockingly, only five (about 1/3) of these blowout losses are coming at the hands of top-ten teams.
Opponent rank by blowout
Year - Rank
2008 - 4
2008 - 4
2009 -
2010 -
2011 - 7
2011 - 20
2011 - 10
2012 - 12
2012 -
2012 - 6
2013 - 16
2013 -
2013 - 14
2013 -
Nine of our opponents, including the last four straight, have blown out a Bo Pelini team when that opponent has been ranked outside of the top ten. An astounding five of those opponents were unranked when they blew out a Bo Pelini team.
The records of these opponents doesn't paint a much better picture. We're not losing to top-tier teams, we're losing to teams that have mediocre records.
Opponent Win/Loss Records
Year - ( W - L )
2008 - ( 10 - 4 )
2008 - ( 12 - 2 )
2009 - ( 9 - 4 )
2010 - ( 7 - 6 )
2011 - ( 11 - 3 )
2011 - ( 11 - 2 )
2011 - ( 11 - 2 )
2012 - ( 12 - 0 )
2012 - ( 8 - 6 )
2012 - ( 12 - 2 )
2013 - ( 10 - 3 )
2013 - ( 8 - 5 )
2013 - ( 13 - 1 )
2013 - ( 8 - 5 )
Three of the last six opponents to blow us out by ten or more points have finished their season with five or more losses. Six of our opponents have had four losses or more, while only one opponent (2012 Ohio State) went undefeated, and only one more (2013 Sparty) had one loss.
So, how does Nebraska compare to our opponents' opponents in those years? Not all that well, and the longer we go the less impressive those losses are. Only three of these opponents had a top-ten Strength of Schedule, and only one of the last ten opponents to blow us out had a top 25 SoS.
Opponent Strength of Schedule
Year - SOS
2008 - 10
2008 - 2
2009 - 56
2010 - 2
2011 - 53
2011 - 33
2011 - 29
2012 - 54
2012 - 39
2012 - 31
2013 - 13 (UCLA)
2013 - 60
2013 - 62
2013 - 49
The average SoS of the last ten opponents to blow out Nebraska: 42.3
The average margin of defeat in these 14 games is more than three touchdowns (22.9pts).
Increasingly it's the defense at the forefront of the breakdown. Nebraska has scored on average 21 points in these losses. Over the last ten blowout losses that average climbs to 24 points per game. That's more than enough to win most every game, or at the very least to be competitive.
The problem is that we're giving up more and more points as the Bo Pelini Era goes on. In those 14 blowout losses the defense averages 44 points allowed. Over the last ten games that jumps to 46 points allowed. In those last ten blowout losses, the fewest points allowed was 30. The "Blackshirts" gave up 35 or more points eight times in the last ten blowout losses alone. Over all 14 games they've given up 40 or more points nine times.
Nine times? I don't remember them giving up that many points nine times.
Well, wake up and smell the coffee, Husker fans! It's a fool's paradise. We're being led down the primrose path!
Yet another dagger to the heart of Husker Fan - we're in increasingly rarefied air when it comes to points given up against these teams. With the exception of a few opponents, Nebraska gave up as many points as the dregs of college football these years.
Nebraska's Points-Allowed Peers
Year - Opponent - Who did they score this many points against?
2008 - Missouri - Scored 52+ on Illinois, SE MO St., Nevada, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State
2008 - Oklahoma - Scored 62+ on Texas A&M, Texas Tech, & Missouri
2009 - Texas Tech - Scored 31+ on North Dakota, Rice, New Mexico, Kansas State, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan State
2010 - Washington - Scored 19+ on Syracuse, Nebraska, USC, Oregon St, UCLA, Washington St, Nebraska
2011 - Wisconsin - Scored 48+ on UNLV, N. Illinois, SoDak, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue
2011 - Michigan - Scored 45+ on Minnesota, Nebraska
2011 - South Carolina - Scored 30+ on E Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska
2012 - Ohio State - Scored 63+ on Nebraska
2012 - Wisconsin - Scored 70+ on Nebraska
2012 - Georgia - Scored 45+ on Buffalo, FLA Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, GA Southern, Nebraska
2013 - UCLA - Scored 41+ on Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico St, Colorado, Washington, Virginia Tech
2013 - Minnesota - Scored 34+ on UNLV, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Nebraska, Indiana
2013 - Michigan State - Scored 41+ on Youngstown St, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
2013 - Iowa - Scored 38+ on Western Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska
For those of you scoring along at home, we were the victim of the most points scored by Wisconsin and Ohio State in 2012. In 2013, we were among such company as Nevada, New Mexico State and Colorado in being victimized by UCLA. We ranked right up there with UNLV, New Mexico State and San Jose State in giving up a boatload of points to Minnesota. We were among a few elite in giving up 41 or more points against Sparty, joining the ranks of Youngstown State, Indiana and Illinois. And most gloriously, we gave up more points to Iowa (that's 8-5 Iowa, mind you) than all their other opponents except for Western Michigan and Purdue.
But lest you think that defense is the only side of the ball with problems, here's who scored around about the same points as we did against these juggernauts in those years...
Nebraska's Points-Scored Peers
Year - Opponent - Who scored this many points against them?
2008 - Missouri - Allowed 17 to Illinois, Nevada, Buffalo, Nebraska, OK State, Texas, Baylor, KSU, ISU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Northwestern
2008 - Oklahoma - Allowed 28+ to Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M & Oklahoma State
2009 - Texas Tech - Allowed 10+ to every opponent.
2010 - Washington - Allowed 7+ to every opponent
2011 - Wisconsin - Allowed 17+ to UNLV, Nebraska, Michigan St., Ohio St, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Oregon
2011 - Michigan - Allowed 17+ to Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio St, Virginia Tech
2011 - South Carolina - Allowed 13+ to E Carolina, Georgia, Navy, Auburn, Arkansas, Citadel, Clemson, Nebraska
2012 - Ohio State - Allowed 38+ to Nebraska, Indiana
2012 - Wisconsin - Allowed 31+ to Nebraska
2012 - Georgia - Allowed 31+ to Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska
2013 - UCLA - Allowed 21+ to Nebraska, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Washington, Arizona St
2013 - Minnesota - Allowed 23+ to UNLV, San Jose St, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana
2013 - Michigan State - Allowed 28+ to Indiana, Nebraska
2013 - Iowa - Allowed 17+ to Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, LSU
These numbers show us that, early on in the Bo Pelini Era when the offense was lacking, the majority of teams scored the same or more points against our blowout opponents as Nebraska did, meaning the defenses would have had to play superlative football to avoid those blowouts - and clearly they didn't. But as Bo's tenure wore on, fewer teams were scoring as much as we were, and when they did, for the most part they were pretty decent teams (with a few exceptions, of course).
In 2012 the Huskers scored more points against against Wisconsin than any other team (31), and the funny thing is, the #2 scoring team on Wiscy that year? Nebraska (30) in the conference opener. Also in 2012, no team scored more points against undefeated Ohio State than the Huskers (38). And only three other teams, all SEC teams, scored as many points against Georgia that year as Nebraska.
And yet, we lost those games. And four more blowout losses in 2013. Granted, those scoring deficiencies in 2013 can largely be attributed to the loss of Taylor Martinez, but that's small comfort in the overall picture here.
So there's a bunch of stats thrown against the wall. What sticks?
To me, it's this: That despite the excuses (valid or not is up for you to judge) of conference change, injuries to key positions, youth or whatever, it's a head coach's responsibility to field a competent team.
Blowout losses are never acceptable. They are even less acceptable at a place like Nebraska, and they are nigh on unforgivable when the culprit is mostly the defense, and the head coach's area of expertise is stingy defense.
I'd like to end this with some rah-rah "we're going to do it this year!" closer, but the bottom line is, if it isn't fixed by now, why would it be fixed next season?
EDIT - Bye Bye Big XII has done a breakdown of turnovers in these games that makes a perfect addendum to this post. Scroll down in this thread or click HERE for his further analysis.
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