Bo's Blowouts - analyzing the worst of the losses

knapplc said:
For the 1,487,243,546,928th time, nobody gives a rat's a$$ what fans of other teams say about Nebraska or Bo.

We could have the love child of Pope Francis and Jennifer Lawrence as our head coach and fans of other teams would hate him and want his a$$ fired.
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I would actually be disturbed with the Pope violating the chastity vow! The return of the Dark Age popes is not something that I welcome!

 
I took a look at turnover margin per game vs. win total for all teams in 2013.

As a linear trend, with turnover margin per game being the independent variable and games won the dependent variable, I found that a best fit line shows an equation of y = 3.6 * x + 6.5 and a correlation of 0.43 (not good enough).

This means that a team that finished the year even would be expected to win 6.5 games. A team finishing the year with and average of -1 turnovers a game would be expected to win 2 games. A team finishing the year an average of +1 turnovers a game would be expected to win 10 games.

Based on this formula I found the most over achieving teams and under achieving teams.

Top 10 Most Under Achieving Teams (Actual Wins minus Expected)

1. Miami Ohio (-5.92)

2. Houston (-5.44)

3. Purdue (-4.92)

4. Nevada (-4.62)

5. Kentucky (-4.53)

6. Georgia State (-4.45)

7. Kansas (-3.82)

8. South Florida (-3.63)

T9. Army (-3.53)

T9. North Carolina State (-3.53)

Top 10 Most Over Achieving Teams (Actual Wins minus Expected)

1. Nebraska (5.53)

2. Auburn (5.47)

3. Texas Tech (5.35)

4. San Diego State (4.53)

5. Stanford (4.47)

6. Western Kentucky (4.45)

7. Cincinnati (4.41)

8. Fresno State (4.18)

9. Ohio State (4.17)

10. Central Florida (4.10)

I figured Nebraska would end up being an over achiever, but I didn't realize that we finished last year tied for 119 in turnovers per game. I should also note that a linear trend line for the model does NOT correlate well, but I already put the time in so $&)# it.

 
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Hooked on Huskers said:
saunders45 said:
Hooked on Huskers said:
Outside HuskerNation, 95% of true CFB fans said Bo is a foul X-rated mouth and big time ill tempered. And head coach, Bo was worst than Lane Kiffin (falsely accused, I hope). Again, outside HuskerNation, majority of fans stuck on T-Mart poking, Leakgate, cap weapon, postgame rant pressers, etc. ....... In contrary, Jake Hoffman's thing, team meeting pranks, kindness, etc., faded memories or erase completely.
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Made up facts are swell.
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Nope, real facts. OU Nation checking in.

Flood said: (HB member)

Tampa, Florida checking in. I also know tons of CFB fans, mostly SEC and of course all the Florida teams.
I have seen nothing but respect for NU as a team and program, and historic power. I still run into Gator fans that squirm with bad memories of a particular Fiesta Bowl, but even they have respect for the program.

There ARE some head-scratching questions about why we have put up with Bo's antics, and about how soon, if ever, we will either get over the hump, or get a championship of some sort, or if we let Bo go first. They are also understanding of the great record, always 9-10 win seasons, but as stumped as anyone as to why we can't quite get a couple more here and there.
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uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.............................................

 
The beauty of this is none of it will matter if this season is a big success. In the world of "what have you done for me lately" we can always point to next year as THE year and hope for the best. Look at Auburn, National Championship, practically winless SEC season, NC runner up.

Should Nebraska only drop a couple games by 2 or 3 points and play for a conference title the nasty stats and old blowups will be put on the backburner.

 
This was well done research. My only argument is that I don't agree that a 10-19 point loss is a blowout. But this does put some perspective on things.

 
This is pretty solid. Good analysis on the turnovers too. It's not quantifiable, but the turnovers are momentum killing, mentally deflating events that have triggered a few of these blowouts. Wisconsin (first time), Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State. Those games swung in an almost unbelievable fashion following turnovers. Some of that falls on Beck and his ability to steady the ship, grind out an 8 play, 40 yard drive and move on. Instead they often snowball. The 3 and outs following turnovers is something I'd like to see analyzed. They try to get the score back, go 3 and out and we end up quickly scored on again. That's a killer mentally.

 
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kchusker_chris said:
This is pretty solid. Good analysis on the turnovers too. It's not quantifiable, but the turnovers are momentum killing, mentally deflating events that have triggered a few of these blowouts. Wisconsin (first time), Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State. Those games swung in an almost unbelievable fashion following turnovers. Some of that falls on Beck and his ability to steady the ship, grind out an 8 play, 40 yard drive and move on. Instead they often snowball. The 3 and outs following turnovers is something I'd like to see analyzed. They try to get the score back, go 3 and out and we end up quickly scored on again. That's a killer mentally.
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Outcome of drive after turnover:

Wisconsin:

  • Interception (5 straight passes)
  • Missed FG at halftime
  • 3-and-out (2 rushes and one pass)

Ohio State:

  • TD (7 plays, 92 yards) (7 rushes)
  • TD (4 plays, 75 yards) (3 rushes and one pass)
  • 3-and-out (2 rush and one pass) (11 play, 67 yard TD drive on next possession)
  • One rush to end the game

Michigan State:

  • Interception (10 yard rush, 8 yard completion, INT)
  • 3-and-out (3 AA rushes)
  • One rush to end the half
  • TD (11 plays, 79 yards) (5 rushes and 6 passes)
  • Can't find last one

I'd say this theory only holds weight on the first Wisconsin occurrence.

 
QMany said:
kchusker_chris said:
This is pretty solid. Good analysis on the turnovers too. It's not quantifiable, but the turnovers are momentum killing, mentally deflating events that have triggered a few of these blowouts. Wisconsin (first time), Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State. Those games swung in an almost unbelievable fashion following turnovers. Some of that falls on Beck and his ability to steady the ship, grind out an 8 play, 40 yard drive and move on. Instead they often snowball. The 3 and outs following turnovers is something I'd like to see analyzed. They try to get the score back, go 3 and out and we end up quickly scored on again. That's a killer mentally.
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Outcome of drive after turnover:

Wisconsin:

  • Interception (5 straight passes)
  • Missed FG at halftime
  • 3-and-out (2 rushes and one pass)

Ohio State:

  • TD (7 plays, 92 yards) (7 rushes)
  • TD (4 plays, 75 yards) (3 rushes and one pass)
  • 3-and-out (2 rush and one pass) (11 play, 67 yard TD drive on next possession)
  • One rush to end the game

Michigan State:

  • Interception (10 yard rush, 8 yard completion, INT)
  • 3-and-out (3 AA rushes)
  • One rush to end the half
  • TD (11 plays, 79 yards) (5 rushes and 6 passes)
  • Can't find last one

I'd say this theory only holds weight on the first Wisconsin occurrence.
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Correct,

I'd almost say that after a turnover, there is an extreme urge to "keep it safe". Well the problem with that is that probably makes it incredibly easy for the opposing defense defense to key in.

It'd make incredible waves here and on the game thread, but I'd almost wish Beck (or Bo) would just write off the turnover, and go back to the plan.

Of course as I type this I think about Callahan and Texas Tech, so who knows.

 
So, the complaint is that after an interception, we go too conservative?

I always thought the cool argument was that we get too cute and try to do too much. I thought all we had to do is line up and run it straight ahead and we would be world champions.

 
BigRedBuster said:
So, the complaint is that after an interception, we go too conservative?

I always thought the cool argument was that we get too cute and try to do too much. I thought all we had to do is line up and run it straight ahead and we would be world champions.
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I don't think either argument holds much weight. I think they are just that, complaints.

I don't necessarily agree with five straight passes after an interception, but on the other 10 turnovers I have noted:

  • 3 75+ yard TD drives
  • 3 drives cut short by halftime/game
  • 3 3-and-outs (7 rushes, 2 passes)
  • Interception (after 10 yard rush and 8 yard completion) Kenny is open for first down, turrrrible pass by TA3

Whether we choose to blame these outcomes on risky/conservative coach reactions, player mistakes, or other is up to you(r agenda).

 
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BigRedBuster said:
So, the complaint is that after an interception, we go too conservative?
I always thought the cool argument was that we get too cute and try to do too much. I thought all we had to do is line up and run it straight ahead and we would be world champions.
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I've never agreed with that. Got a gameplan, do the gameplan. They run it plenty.

 
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