Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

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The NU loss to KU in the final seconds is going to hurt badly when it comes to Selection Sunday (assuming NU keeps performing well enough to get on the bubble).

KU has now righted the ship, and will probably win the Big 12 for the umpteenth time in a row, and will get at least a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  That win would have been a nice feather in NU's cap.

 
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ColoradoHusk said:
The NU loss to KU in the final seconds is going to hurt badly when it comes to Selection Sunday (assuming NU keeps performing well enough to get on the buzzer).

KU has now righted the ship, and will probably win the Big 12 for the umpteenth time in a row, and will get at least a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  That win would have been a nice feather in NU's cap.
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The buzzer!  I love it!

 
this is exactly what I've been preaching when I've been talking about why last night's game was so important. Everyone seems to think getting to 21 wins somehow is just "fine" but the reality is Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not even remotely CLOSE to a NCAA tournament caliber team. Nebraska not only has to win out in order to make the conversation interesting (would put them at 23-8) but would probably need another quality win in the B1G tournament to have a legit argument. If Nebraska wins out they will be 0-3 RPI top 25, 1-5 RPI top 50, 6-7 RPI top 100. And that is assuming Minnesota doesn't continue to tank and fall out of the top 100 RPI which would move Nebraska to 4-7 vs the top 100 if they win the next one vs the Gophers too. That just isn't going to cut it, especially with a SOS of 90

 
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seaofred92 said:
this is exactly what I've been preaching when I've been talking about why last night's game was so important. Everyone seems to think getting to 21 wins somehow is just "fine" but the reality is Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not even remotely CLOSE to a NCAA tournament caliber team. Nebraska not only has to win out in order to make the conversation interesting (would put them at 23-8) but would probably need another quality win in the B1G tournament to have a legit argument. If Nebraska wins out they will be 0-3 RPI top 25, 1-5 RPI top 50, 6-7 RPI top 100. And that is assuming Minnesota doesn't continue to tank and fall out of the top 100 RPI which would move Nebraska to 4-7 vs the top 100 if they win the next one vs the Gophers too. That just isn't going to cut it, especially with a SOS of 90
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I get what you are saying and while I dont think you are wrong, lets also look at it this way. 

If the Huskers win out(I dont think they will), that puts them at 14-4 in the B1G. 

I think they would finish in the top 4. While they dont have a great schedule, I still think if you finish in the top 4 of the BIG and have 23 wins, you are in. 

Indiana has to play Purdue, OSU(twice) and Michigan State. They are currently at 5-3 in the Big Ten but if we win out, we will for sure pass them. 

Michigan is a game ahead of us but we have the tiebreaker and they still have Purdue and OSU on the road.

Now, my theory goes out the window a bit because Michigan is going to get in most likely even if we finish above them but I think finishing in the top 4 makes it hard for us to be passed on.

I really wish we just would have beat stupid Kansas.

 
seaofred92 said:
this is exactly what I've been preaching when I've been talking about why last night's game was so important. Everyone seems to think getting to 21 wins somehow is just "fine" but the reality is Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not even remotely CLOSE to a NCAA tournament caliber team. Nebraska not only has to win out in order to make the conversation interesting (would put them at 23-8) but would probably need another quality win in the B1G tournament to have a legit argument. If Nebraska wins out they will be 0-3 RPI top 25, 1-5 RPI top 50, 6-7 RPI top 100. And that is assuming Minnesota doesn't continue to tank and fall out of the top 100 RPI which would move Nebraska to 4-7 vs the top 100 if they win the next one vs the Gophers too. That just isn't going to cut it, especially with a SOS of 90
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If we win out we'll be B1G champions and automatically get in.   :koolaid2:

:sarcasm

 
seaofred92 said:
this is exactly what I've been preaching when I've been talking about why last night's game was so important. Everyone seems to think getting to 21 wins somehow is just "fine" but the reality is Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not even remotely CLOSE to a NCAA tournament caliber team. Nebraska not only has to win out in order to make the conversation interesting (would put them at 23-8) but would probably need another quality win in the B1G tournament to have a legit argument. If Nebraska wins out they will be 0-3 RPI top 25, 1-5 RPI top 50, 6-7 RPI top 100. And that is assuming Minnesota doesn't continue to tank and fall out of the top 100 RPI which would move Nebraska to 4-7 vs the top 100 if they win the next one vs the Gophers too. That just isn't going to cut it, especially with a SOS of 90
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While I don't disagree with your analysis, when was the last power conference team with 23 wins to not make the dance?  I think 21 wins puts them in the conversation, 22 probably gets them in and 23 would be a lock.  If you look at the "last 4 in" teams the last several years, most of them don't look like NCAA tournament teams.

 
If Nebraska loses one, they need to replace it with a win in the B1G tournament. If they lose two, then replace it with two. 

If they lose three, they have to win the whole thing to get in. 

 
All this thinking honestly is being based on no Cinderella teams stealing automatic bids from other conferences.  

There is A TON of ground needed to make up to get on the bubble.  Michigan needs to keep winning, need to beat Maryland while having them continue to win otherwise, and that still leaves no room for “bad” loses.  

 
There have been 4 power 5 teams ever left out of the tournament with 23 wins. Though, with Nebraska's resume I think they would/could be #5 "IF" they won out (which seems highly unlikely).

Related: No Power 5 school with 24 wins has ever been left out of the tourney.

 
I'm coming more and more around to the idea that they'll have to win out, plus at least one in the B1G tournament, to get in. They really only have one quality win, and while they played Purdue and Ohio State tough (for stretches), the fact that they couldn't close the deal against Kansas, Creighton, Penn State or Ohio State is going to implode their chances on Selection Sunday. 

 
https://theathletic.com/213366/2018/01/23/big-ten-power-rankings-warning-bells-for-michigans-offense-bad-news-for-nebraska-ridiculous-rutgers-stat/

Nebraska's Big Ten schedule isn't doing it any favors. The Cornhuskers took a tough loss in Columbus last night to kick off a stretch of four games in just eight days — with three of the four away from home. Nebraska is one of only three teams in the league that has to play a similar four-game stretch of league schedule and it could shape its season for better or worse.

But Nebraska's biggest scheduling problem is that it plays only one game against each of the Big Ten's four best teams. Only one of those four games (last week against Michigan) took place in Lincoln and all four games are already in the books.

A tier 1 quality win is defined by the NCAA as a home win over a team ranked in the top 30, a neutral-site win over a team in the top 50, or a road win over a team in the top 75. It is possible, if not likely, that Nebraska won't play a tier 1 game in the back half of its conference schedule and that could be crushing to its slim at-large hopes.
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