Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
The Puffaloes beat Arizona State.  That helps the other bubble teams as well.

AZ State has some great non con wins, but they were pretty bad in conference.
Arizona State is the exact opposite compared to Nebraska.  ASU had some big non-conference wins (including over Kansas, Xavier, and Kansas State), but as you mentioned they finished 9th in the PAC-12, which is just ahead of the Big Ten in RPI conference rankings.

 
So I know ESPN will use this to try to say the big 12 should get nine teams in the tournament.

What I'm not sure of is how they're going to push for Iowa State to get in as well.

 
I think most of us realize Nebraska's chances are basically gone.  However, it's still interesting to see how the conference tournaments are going, so here's a quick rundown of where they stand:

Tournament Championship

EARNED AUTOMATIC BID (13)  -  19 Conference Tournaments Remain To Be Completed

Should Earn At-Large Bid (31)

On the Bubble (29)

POWER 6

ACC: Saturday (Virginia, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida StateLouisvilleSyracuse, Notre Dame)

Big 12: Saturday (Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas StateOklahomaBaylorOklahoma StateTexas)

Big East: Saturday (Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, ButlerProvidenceMarquette)

Big Ten: MICHIGAN (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, NebraskaPenn State)

Pac-12: Saturday (ArizonaUSCUCLAUtahWashingtonArizona State)

SEC: Sunday (Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, AlabamaMississippi State)

Other conferences with possible At-Large teams:

America East: Saturday (Vermont)

American: Sunday (Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston)

Atlantic 10: Sunday (Rhode IslandSt. Bonaventure)

Conference USA: Saturday (Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky)

Missouri Valley: LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Mountain West: Saturday (Nevada, Boise State)

Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Sun Belt: Sunday (Louisiana)

West Coast: GONZAGA (St. Mary's)

WAC: Saturday (New Mexico State)

Conferences with only 1 bid no matter what:

Atlantic Sun: LIPSCOMB

Big Sky: Saturday

Big South: RADFORD

Big West: Saturday

Colonial: CHARLESTON

Horizon: WRIGHT STATE

Ivy: Sunday

Metro Atlantic: IONA

MAC: Saturday

MEAC: Saturday

Northeast: LIU BROOKLYN

Ohio Valley: MURRAY STATE

Patriot: BUCKNELL

Southern: UNC GREENSBORO

Southland: Saturday

Southwestern: Saturday

Best Case Scenario for Bubble Teams: All Conferences with an At-Large Lock win the tournament

That would mean 32 auto-bids + 22 At-Large Locks = 54 Spots taken in the field

Assuming teams on the bubble win conferences that don't have any locks, that leaves 26 Bubble Teams

That would leave 14 At-Large Spots for the 26 Remaining Bubble Teams

The Pecking Order for the remaining Bubble Teams is probably something like this:

1. Butler

2. St. Bonaventure

3. Florida State

4. Kansas State

5. St. Mary's

6. NC State

7. Baylor

8. Providence

9. USC

10. Texas

11. Oklahoma

12. UCLA

13. Louisville                                 

14. Alabama                           

15. Marquette

16. Oklahoma State

17. Arizona State

18. Notre Dame

19. Nebraska

20. Syracuse

21. Mississippi State

22. Utah

23. Penn State

24. Boise State

25. Western Kentucky

26. Washington

Updated after Wednesday's games

 
The trouble for Nebraska is most of the other teams close to the bubble are winning.  The teams losing are the ones farther from the bubble cut line that are generally considered safely in the tournament.  The Notre Dame, Texas, and Marquette wins hurt.  Louisville to a lesser extent.  All of those games could have easily gone the other way.  I'm not sure the Oklahoma State win does anything more than move another team in front of Nebraska.  It will be interesting to see on Sunday.

 
NON CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN FOR ALL POWER 6 CONFERENCES

I wanted to look at the non conference performance for all Power 6 conferences and see how much difference there really was.  This is what I decided to look at:

GOOD WIN (RPI) - These are wins over top 50 RPI teams

AVERAGE WIN (RPI) - These are wins over teams with an RPI between 51 and 100

AVERAGE LOSS (RPI) - These are losses to teams with an RPI between 51 and 100

BAD LOSS (RPI) - These are losses to teams with an RPI over 100

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = (+2 for GOOD WIN, +1 for AVERAGE WIN, -1 for AVERAGE LOSS, -2 for BAD LOSS)

I did not factor in "Good Losses" or "Bad Wins" because in my opinion those show very little about a team.  I also realize a win against Virginia (RPI = 1) is better than a win against South Dakota State (RPI = 46), but this is a fairly easy and very defined way to sort everything.

ACC

Virginia - RHODE ISLAND (16), UNC GREENSBORO (72), DAVIDSON (80), +4

Duke - MICHIGAN STATE (15), TEXAS (45), FLORIDA (36), UTAH VALLEY (75), FURMAN (98), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), ST. JOHN'S (85), +8

Clemson - OHIO STATE (21), FLORIDA (36), SOUTH CAROLINA (74), LOUISIANA (57), +6

Miami - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), +2

North Carolina - ARKANSAS (30), MICHIGAN (13), TENNESSEE (9), OHIO STATE (21), BUCKNELL (87), STANFORD (81), DAVIDSON (80), WOFFORD (124), +9

NC State - ARIZONA (18), PENN STATE (84), UNC GREENSBORO (72), NORTHERN IOWA (138), +0

Virginia Tech - WASHINGTON (66), SAINT LOUIS (146), -1

Florida State - FLORIDA (36), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), +1

Louisville - +0

Notre Dame - WICHITA STATE (12), LSU (89), BALL STATE (106), INDIANA (118), -1

Syracuse - BUFFALO (32), TOLEDO (86), MARYLAND (73), +4

Boston College - NEBRASKA (56), -1

Georgia Tech - GEORGIA (79), WOFFORD (124), WRIGHT STATE (102), GRAMBLING (252), -7

Wake Forest - UNC GREENSBORO (72), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (142), LIBERTY (212), DRAKE (169), -5

Pittsburgh - MONTANA (95), PENN STATE (84), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), NAVY (202), -5

GOOD WINS - 15

AVERAGE WINS - 16

AVERAGE LOSSES - 8

BAD LOSSES - 12

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +14

BIG 12

Kansas - KENTUCKY (17), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (46), SYRACUSE (41), TEXAS A&M (22), TOLEDO (86), NEBRASKA (56), STANFORD (81), WASHINGTON (66), ARIZONA STATE (62), +9

Texas Tech - NEVADA (14), BOSTON COLLEGE (90), SOUTH CAROLINA (74), +4

West Virginia - MISSOURI (33), VIRGINIA (1), UCF (77), +5

Kansas State - GEORGIA (79), ARIZONA STATE (62), TULSA (69), -1

TCU - ST. BONAVENTURE (23), NEVADA (14), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), BELMONT (82), WILLIAM & MARY (93), VANDERBILT (120), +5

Oklahoma State - FLORIDA STATE (50), TULSA (69), +3

Texas - BUTLER (43), ALABAMA (54), +3

Baylor - CREIGHTON (34), +2

Oklahoma - USC (35), WICHITA STATE (12), OREGON (67), ALABAMA (54), +4

Iowa State - BOISE STATE (39), TULSA (69), MILWAUKEE (230), +1

GOOD WINS - 15

AVERAGE WINS - 14

AVERAGE LOSSES - 5

BAD LOSSES - 2

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +35

BIG EAST

Xavier - CINCINNATI (7), RIDER (70), BAYLOR (55), COLORADO (78), EAST TENNESSEE ST. (96), MARSHALL (99), ARIZONA STATE (62), +6

Villanova - TENNESSEE (9), GONZAGA (27), TEMPLE (48), WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), +7

Creighton - UCLA (37), NEBRASKA (56), BAYLOR (55), +2

Seton Hall - TEXAS TECH (24), LOUISVILLE (38), RUTGERS (199), +2

Providence - WASHINGTON (66), BELMONT (82), BOSTON COLLEGE (90), RIDER (70), MINNESOTA (166), UMASS (234), +0

Butler - OHIO STATE (21), UTAH (49), FURMAN (98), MARYLAND (73), +4

Marquette - LSU (89), VERMONT (59), GEORGIA (79), +1

Georgetown - +0

St. John's - DUKE (4), VILLANOVA (2), NEBRASKA (56), UCF (77), ARIZONA STATE (62), +5

DePaul - NOTRE DAME (64), OREGON (67), ILLINOIS (181), NORTHWESTERN (167), -6

GOOD WINS - 11

AVERAGE WINS - 16

AVERAGE LOSSES - 7

BAD LOSSES - 5

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +21

BIG TEN

Michigan State - NORTH CAROLINA (5), NOTRE DAME (64), +3

Purdue - ARIZONA (18), LOUISVILLE (38), BUTLER (43), MARQUETTE (53), WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), +6

Ohio State - NORTHEASTERN (61), STANFORD (81), WILLIAM & MARY (93), +3

Michigan - UCLA (37), TEXAS (45), LSU (89), +3

Nebraska - BOSTON COLLEGE (90), ST. JOHN'S (85), UCF (77), -1

Penn State - MONTANA (95), NC STATE (63), RIDER (70), -1

Indiana - NOTRE DAME (64), INDIANA STATE (183), FORT WAYNE (210), -3

Maryland - BUTLER (43), BUCKNELL (87), +3

Wisconsin - WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), BAYLOR (55), MARQUETTE (53), -1

Northwestern - GEORGIA TECH (155), -2

Minnesota - PROVIDENCE (40), ALABAMA (54), +3

Illinois - MISSOURI (33), MARSHALL (99), UNLV (122), WAKE FOREST (156), -1

Iowa - COLORADO (78), LOUISIANA (57), VIRGINIA TECH (58), IOWA STATE (130), -3

Rutgers - SETON HALL (26), STONY BROOK (207), HARTFORD (201), -2

GOOD WINS - 10

AVERAGE WINS - 13

AVERAGE LOSSES - 10

BAD LOSSES - 8

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +7

PAC 12

Arizona - TEXAS A&M (22), ALABAMA (54), NC STATE (63), SMU (111), +0

USC - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), NEW MEXICO STATE (42), SMU (111), PRINCETON (222), +0

UCLA - KENTUCKY (17), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), +3

Utah - MISSOURI (33), BYU (68), UNLV (122), -1

Stanford - NORTHEASTERN (61), MONTANA (95), EASTERN WASHINGTON (126), PORTLAND ST. (154), LONG BEACH ST. (189), -4

Oregon - FRESNO ST. (100), UCONN (105), -1

Washington - KANSAS (6), BELMONT (82), UC DAVIS (97), MONTANA (95), VIRGINIA TECH (58), +4

Arizona State - XAVIER (3), KANSAS (6), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), KANSAS STATE (60), ST. JOHN'S (85), +7

Colorado - SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (46), SAN DIEGO (144), COLORADO STATE (229), IOWA (153), -4

Oregon State - WYOMING (92), ST. JOHN'S (85), LONG BEACH ST. (189), KENT STATE (165), -6

Washington State - SAINT MARY'S (47), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), UC DAVIS (97), KANSAS STATE (60), IDAHO (109), UTEP (289), -3

California - SAN DIEGO ST. (91), VCU (137), UC RIVERSIDE (299), CENTRAL ARKANSAS (226), PORTLAND ST. (154), -7

GOOD WINS - 10

AVERAGE WINS - 13

AVERAGE LOSSES - 7

BAD LOSSES - 19

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = -12

SEC

Auburn - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), MURRAY STATE (51), +3

Tennessee - PURDUE (10), NC STATE (63), FURMAN (98), +4

Florida - GONZAGA (27), CINCINNATI (7), STANFORD (81), BAYLOR (55), +6

Arkansas - OKLAHOMA (44), BUCKNELL (87), FRESNO STATE (100), OKLAHOMA ST. (83), +5

Kentucky - LOUISVILLE (38), WEST VIRGINIA (31), UTAH VALLEY (75), VERMONT (59), EAST TENNESSEE ST. (96), VIRGINIA TECH (58), +8

Missouri - ST. JOHN'S (85), UCF (77), ILLINOIS (181), +0

Mississippi State - +0

Texas A&M - WEST VIRGINIA (31), USC (35), BUFFALO (32), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), PENN STATE (84), +8

LSU - MICHIGAN (13), HOUSTON (19), NOTRE DAME (64), MARQUETTE (53), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (125), +0

Alabama - RHODE ISLAND (16), OKLAHOMA (44), BYU (68), UCF (77), MINNESOTA (166), +2

Georgia - SAINT MARY'S (47), TEMPLE (48), MARQUETTE (53), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), KANSAS STATE (60), UMASS (234), +1

South Carolina - WYOMING (92), ILLINOIS STATE (88), +0

Vanderbilt - TCU (20), BELMONT (82), KANSAS STATE (60), ARIZONA STATE (62), -1

Ole Miss - LOUISIANA (57), VIRGINIA TECH (58), ILLINOIS STATE (88), -1

GOOD WINS - 17

AVERAGE WINS - 20

AVERAGE LOSSES - 11

BAD LOSSES - 4

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +35

SEC = +35

BIG 12 = +35

BIG EAST = +21

ACC = +14

BIG TEN = +7

PAC 12 = -12

 
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NON CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN FOR ALL POWER 6 CONFERENCES

I wanted to look at the non conference performance for all Power 6 conferences and see how much difference there really was.  This is what I decided to look at:

GOOD WIN (RPI) - These are wins over top 50 RPI teams

AVERAGE WIN (RPI) - These are wins over teams with an RPI between 51 and 100

AVERAGE LOSS (RPI) - These are losses to teams with an RPI between 51 and 100

BAD LOSS (RPI) - These are losses to teams with an RPI over 100

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = (+2 for GOOD WIN, +1 for AVERAGE WIN, -1 for AVERAGE LOSS, -2 for BAD LOSS)

I did not factor in "Good Losses" or "Bad Wins" because in my opinion those show very little about a team.  I also realize a win against Virginia (RPI = 1) is better than a win against South Dakota State (RPI = 46), but this is a fairly easy and very defined way to sort everything.

ACC

Virginia - RHODE ISLAND (16), UNC GREENSBORO (72), DAVIDSON (80), +4

Duke - MICHIGAN STATE (15), TEXAS (45), FLORIDA (36), UTAH VALLEY (75), FURMAN (98), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), ST. JOHN'S (85), +8

Clemson - OHIO STATE (21), FLORIDA (36), SOUTH CAROLINA (74), LOUISIANA (57), +6

Miami - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), +2

North Carolina - ARKANSAS (30), MICHIGAN (13), TENNESSEE (9), OHIO STATE (21), BUCKNELL (87), STANFORD (81), DAVIDSON (80), WOFFORD (124), +9

NC State - ARIZONA (18), PENN STATE (84), UNC GREENSBORO (72), NORTHERN IOWA (138), +0

Virginia Tech - WASHINGTON (66), SAINT LOUIS (146), -1

Florida State - FLORIDA (36), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), +1

Louisville - +0

Notre Dame - WICHITA STATE (12), LSU (89), BALL STATE (106), INDIANA (118), -1

Syracuse - BUFFALO (32), TOLEDO (86), MARYLAND (73), +4

Boston College - NEBRASKA (56), -1

Georgia Tech - GEORGIA (79), WOFFORD (124), WRIGHT STATE (102), GRAMBLING (252), -7

Wake Forest - UNC GREENSBORO (72), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (142), LIBERTY (212), DRAKE (169), -5

Pittsburgh - MONTANA (95), PENN STATE (84), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), NAVY (202), -5

GOOD WINS - 15

AVERAGE WINS - 16

AVERAGE LOSSES - 8

BAD LOSSES - 12

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +14

BIG 12

Kansas - KENTUCKY (17), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (46), SYRACUSE (41), TEXAS A&M (22), TOLEDO (86), NEBRASKA (56), STANFORD (81), WASHINGTON (66), ARIZONA STATE (62), +9

Texas Tech - NEVADA (14), BOSTON COLLEGE (90), SOUTH CAROLINA (74), +4

West Virginia - MISSOURI (33), VIRGINIA (1), UCF (77), +5

Kansas State - GEORGIA (79), ARIZONA STATE (62), TULSA (69), -1

TCU - ST. BONAVENTURE (23), NEVADA (14), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), BELMONT (82), WILLIAM & MARY (93), VANDERBILT (120), +5

Oklahoma State - FLORIDA STATE (50), TULSA (69), +3

Texas - BUTLER (43), ALABAMA (54), +3

Baylor - CREIGHTON (34), +2

Oklahoma - USC (35), WICHITA STATE (12), OREGON (67), ALABAMA (54), +4

Iowa State - BOISE STATE (39), TULSA (69), MILWAUKEE (230), +1

GOOD WINS - 15

AVERAGE WINS - 14

AVERAGE LOSSES - 5

BAD LOSSES - 2

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +35

BIG EAST

Xavier - CINCINNATI (7), RIDER (70), BAYLOR (55), COLORADO (78), EAST TENNESSEE ST. (96), MARSHALL (99), ARIZONA STATE (62), +6

Villanova - TENNESSEE (9), GONZAGA (27), TEMPLE (48), WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), +7

Creighton - UCLA (37), NEBRASKA (56), BAYLOR (55), +2

Seton Hall - TEXAS TECH (24), LOUISVILLE (38), RUTGERS (199), +2

Providence - WASHINGTON (66), BELMONT (82), BOSTON COLLEGE (90), RIDER (70), MINNESOTA (166), UMASS (234), +0

Butler - OHIO STATE (21), UTAH (49), FURMAN (98), MARYLAND (73), +4

Marquette - LSU (89), VERMONT (59), GEORGIA (79), +1

Georgetown - +0

St. John's - DUKE (4), VILLANOVA (2), NEBRASKA (56), UCF (77), ARIZONA STATE (62), +5

DePaul - NOTRE DAME (64), OREGON (67), ILLINOIS (181), NORTHWESTERN (167), -6

GOOD WINS - 11

AVERAGE WINS - 16

AVERAGE LOSSES - 7

BAD LOSSES - 5

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +21

BIG TEN

Michigan State - NORTH CAROLINA (5), NOTRE DAME (64), +3

Purdue - ARIZONA (18), LOUISVILLE (38), BUTLER (43), MARQUETTE (53), WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), +6

Ohio State - NORTHEASTERN (61), STANFORD (81), WILLIAM & MARY (93), +3

Michigan - UCLA (37), TEXAS (45), LSU (89), +3

Nebraska - BOSTON COLLEGE (90), ST. JOHN'S (85), UCF (77), -1

Penn State - MONTANA (95), NC STATE (63), RIDER (70), -1

Indiana - NOTRE DAME (64), INDIANA STATE (183), FORT WAYNE (210), -3

Maryland - BUTLER (43), BUCKNELL (87), +3

Wisconsin - WESTERN KENTUCKY (52), BAYLOR (55), MARQUETTE (53), -1

Northwestern - GEORGIA TECH (155), -2

Minnesota - PROVIDENCE (40), ALABAMA (54), +3

Illinois - MISSOURI (33), MARSHALL (99), UNLV (122), WAKE FOREST (156), -1

Iowa - COLORADO (78), LOUISIANA (57), VIRGINIA TECH (58), IOWA STATE (130), -3

Rutgers - SETON HALL (26), STONY BROOK (207), HARTFORD (201), -2

GOOD WINS - 10

AVERAGE WINS - 13

AVERAGE LOSSES - 10

BAD LOSSES - 8

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +7

PAC 12

Arizona - TEXAS A&M (22), ALABAMA (54), NC STATE (63), SMU (111), +0

USC - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), NEW MEXICO STATE (42), SMU (111), PRINCETON (222), +0

UCLA - KENTUCKY (17), SOUTH DAKOTA (94), +3

Utah - MISSOURI (33), BYU (68), UNLV (122), -1

Stanford - NORTHEASTERN (61), MONTANA (95), EASTERN WASHINGTON (126), PORTLAND ST. (154), LONG BEACH ST. (189), -4

Oregon - FRESNO ST. (100), UCONN (105), -1

Washington - KANSAS (6), BELMONT (82), UC DAVIS (97), MONTANA (95), VIRGINIA TECH (58), +4

Arizona State - XAVIER (3), KANSAS (6), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), KANSAS STATE (60), ST. JOHN'S (85), +7

Colorado - SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (46), SAN DIEGO (144), COLORADO STATE (229), IOWA (153), -4

Oregon State - WYOMING (92), ST. JOHN'S (85), LONG BEACH ST. (189), KENT STATE (165), -6

Washington State - SAINT MARY'S (47), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), UC DAVIS (97), KANSAS STATE (60), IDAHO (109), UTEP (289), -3

California - SAN DIEGO ST. (91), VCU (137), UC RIVERSIDE (299), CENTRAL ARKANSAS (226), PORTLAND ST. (154), -7

GOOD WINS - 10

AVERAGE WINS - 13

AVERAGE LOSSES - 7

BAD LOSSES - 19

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = -12

SEC

Auburn - MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28), MURRAY STATE (51), +3

Tennessee - PURDUE (10), NC STATE (63), FURMAN (98), +4

Florida - GONZAGA (27), CINCINNATI (7), STANFORD (81), BAYLOR (55), +6

Arkansas - OKLAHOMA (44), BUCKNELL (87), FRESNO STATE (100), OKLAHOMA ST. (83), +5

Kentucky - LOUISVILLE (38), WEST VIRGINIA (31), UTAH VALLEY (75), VERMONT (59), EAST TENNESSEE ST. (96), VIRGINIA TECH (58), +8

Missouri - ST. JOHN'S (85), UCF (77), ILLINOIS (181), +0

Mississippi State - +0

Texas A&M - WEST VIRGINIA (31), USC (35), BUFFALO (32), OKLAHOMA STATE (83), PENN STATE (84), +8

LSU - MICHIGAN (13), HOUSTON (19), NOTRE DAME (64), MARQUETTE (53), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (125), +0

Alabama - RHODE ISLAND (16), OKLAHOMA (44), BYU (68), UCF (77), MINNESOTA (166), +2

Georgia - SAINT MARY'S (47), TEMPLE (48), MARQUETTE (53), SAN DIEGO ST. (91), KANSAS STATE (60), UMASS (234), +1

South Carolina - WYOMING (92), ILLINOIS STATE (88), +0

Vanderbilt - TCU (20), BELMONT (82), KANSAS STATE (60), ARIZONA STATE (62), -1

Ole Miss - LOUISIANA (57), VIRGINIA TECH (58), ILLINOIS STATE (88), -1

GOOD WINS - 17

AVERAGE WINS - 20

AVERAGE LOSSES - 11

BAD LOSSES - 4

NON CON RPI WEIGHT = +35

SEC = +35

BIG 12 = +35

BIG EAST = +21

ACC = +14

BIG TEN = +7

PAC 12 = -12


I wish to subscribe to your newsletter, sir. 

 
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