Collins Declares for NFL

[cm husker]

To me, the key question is whether you'd be an undrafted FA or a top 3 rounder.

In some ways, it's better to enter the league as a FA, with the flexibility to sign where the fit is right, rather than getting draft by a team that may have just grabbed you because you were the top athlete/prospect left on their late rounds board (but not necessarily a great fit on the depth chart).

Also, a RBs considerations are much different than a lineman's. Signing up a 4 year contract at RB (which covers more than the average length of an RB's NFL career) is smart business. For a lineman, you might want to go as a F/A or sign a shorter deal where you can re-up or move sooner for more money after proving your worth after a year or two against NFL competition. For comparison RBs last on average 3.1 years. DL and OL about 4.1.

So while signing a 4-year deal worth $4mm is good for AA, it might be better for VV to take an initially lower value and shorter contract (say 2 years for $1mm) and then sign a bigger contract in year 3 (say 4 years at $2m per year).

Anyway, it doesn't sound like VV can make a "bad" decision here. So should be interesting to see what he ends up doing.

So you are saying it is better to be an un-drafted free agent with NO guaranteed money than sign a 4 year deal? Plus the rookie contracts are set. AA got the deal he got because of WHERE he was drafted. Not the position he plays.

I didn't say he got the money because of his position. I said considering the length and types of contracts available at a draft position should be done in light of what position the potential draftee plays.

I also said that if you aren't a top 3 (or really top 2) round prospect, then you shouldn't worry about going as a drafted player or undrafted, as the last three rounds of the NFL draft offer very little difference in money from UAs. So really, if a player gets a report that he's a 5th rounder, he should probably go, even if that means he may not be drafted, unless he thinks a senior year could actually move him into the 2nd round. Otherwise, you lose out on a year of earnings, risk injury and are that much more delayed in signing your second (and more lucrative) contract.

Do you think that his $4.1M over 4-years is guaranteed?

$2.2 million is

http://overthecap.com/player/ameer-abdullah/3902/

Check your math.

You're right. It's $2.3 million. Not $2.2

Total Value: $4,156,126 (avg. $1,039,032/year; $2,291,551 fully guaranteed)

Your link is playing loose with some terms. That's a little north of $1 million in guaranteed (if actually guaranteed, which normally it often isn't even when reported that way).

That's why most people only talk about signing bonuses when comparing "guaranteed" money across contracts. But if you want to include "guaranteed" base salary, then an apples to apples comparison should include the first year salary of an undrafted FA as "guaranteed" also.

So we are back at the same spot where a 2nd rounder is guaranteed about 1.5m where the undrafted FA is guaranteed almost nothing.

 

[cm husker]

Do you think there's a chance he'd transfer to a U with a strong grad program in his area of interest? For example, maybe Stanford, to play a final year there before going? I honestly have no idea... just throwing out what could be a strategically smart move on his part.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Do you think there's a chance he'd transfer to a U with a strong grad program in his area of interest? For example, maybe Stanford, to play a final year there before going? I honestly have no idea... just throwing out what could be a strategically smart move on his part.

At this point, I think a graduate transfer would have been announced so he could be enrolled in his new school by next week. Now, there is still the possibility of VV going through spring practice and then transferring this summer, but I don't know if that's possible because he would have had started graduate classes at UNL.

 

[Bowfin]

So you are saying it is better to be an un-drafted free agent with NO guaranteed money than sign a 4 year deal

What kind of guaranteed money does Valentine get his Senior year at Nebraska?

Also, would one be better off suffering a major, or even a career ending, injury in the NFL or playing college ball?

 

[StPaulHusker]

So you are saying it is better to be an un-drafted free agent with NO guaranteed money than sign a 4 year deal

What kind of guaranteed money does Valentine get his Senior year at Nebraska?

Also, would one be better off suffering a major, or even a career ending, injury in the NFL or playing college ball?

I don't know what kind of compensation the student-athlete gets now. But you are also assuming that being an undrafted FA means that you actually get picked up by a team and make the 53 man roster. Most rookie UDFA's make it on the practice squad for about $80K per season.

 

[Mavric]

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Neither proving nor disproving this allegation about Wisconsin, I looked at the numbers. If this exercise proved anything, it's that putting numbers into a spreadsheet is always entertaining.

Including Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 487 rushes, giving up 2,357 yards. That's 4.84 yards per carry.

Excluding Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 434 rushes, giving up 1,776 yards. That's 4.09 yards per carry.

2015 Nebraska faced 380 rushes, giving up 1,428 yards. That's 3.76 yards per carry.

Excluding 2015 Nebraska's worst rush defense game (Purdue), Nebraska faced 343 rushes and gave up 1,245 yards. That's 3.63 yards per carry.

An apples-to-apples comparison, total games vs. total games, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 1.08 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

A second apples-to-apples comparison, worst game taken out for both, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 0.46 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

Not to nit-pick but I see slightly different numbers on Huskers.com

All games:

2015 - 1428 yards allowed on 379 attempts for 3.77 ypa

2014 - 2312 yards allowed on 488 attempts for 4.74 ypa

2013 - 2030 yards allowed on 538 attempts for 3.77 ypa

Less worst game:

2015 - 1245 yards allowed on 342 attempts for 3.64 ypa

2014 - 1731 yards allowed on 435 attempts for 3.98 ypa

2013 - 1759 yards allowed on 484 attempts for 3.63 ypa

So the 2015 defense was all but identical to the 2013 version on both. 2015 was basically one yard per attempt better overall and about a foot better per attempt adjusted. Somewhat better than last year, no discernible difference from the year before.

But I'm not sure even that tells the whole story. I think it's pretty obvious that the quality of rushing attack we faced this year was a significant drop-off from last year. Impossible to quantify but Miami, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State were all minus their starting RB from 2014. Miami and Wisconsin were short there best two RBs from the previous year and four of those guys were drafted last June.

So I don't think it's a stretch to say there was not a lot of difference in how successful our rush defense was this year compared to previous years. Probably slightly better than last year but a lot of the difference can also be attributed to the quality of the opponents.

 

[NU jumper alum]

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Neither proving nor disproving this allegation about Wisconsin, I looked at the numbers. If this exercise proved anything, it's that putting numbers into a spreadsheet is always entertaining.

Including Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 487 rushes, giving up 2,357 yards. That's 4.84 yards per carry.

Excluding Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 434 rushes, giving up 1,776 yards. That's 4.09 yards per carry.

2015 Nebraska faced 380 rushes, giving up 1,428 yards. That's 3.76 yards per carry.

Excluding 2015 Nebraska's worst rush defense game (Purdue), Nebraska faced 343 rushes and gave up 1,245 yards. That's 3.63 yards per carry.

An apples-to-apples comparison, total games vs. total games, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 1.08 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

A second apples-to-apples comparison, worst game taken out for both, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 0.46 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

Not to nit-pick but I see slightly different numbers on Huskers.com

All games:

2015 - 1428 yards allowed on 379 attempts for 3.77 ypa

2014 - 2312 yards allowed on 488 attempts for 4.74 ypa

2013 - 2030 yards allowed on 538 attempts for 3.77 ypa

Less worst game:

2015 - 1245 yards allowed on 342 attempts for 3.64 ypa

2014 - 1731 yards allowed on 435 attempts for 3.98 ypa

2013 - 1759 yards allowed on 484 attempts for 3.63 ypa

So the 2015 defense was all but identical to the 2013 version on both. 2015 was basically one yard per attempt better overall and about a foot better per attempt adjusted. Somewhat better than last year, no discernible difference from the year before.

But I'm not sure even that tells the whole story. I think it's pretty obvious that the quality of rushing attack we faced this year was a significant drop-off from last year. Impossible to quantify but Miami, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State were all minus their starting RB from 2014. Miami and Wisconsin were short there best two RBs from the previous year and four of those guys were drafted last June.

So I don't think it's a stretch to say there was not a lot of difference in how successful our rush defense was this year compared to previous years. Probably slightly better than last year but a lot of the difference can also be attributed to the quality of the opponents.

I kind of disagree. I see the point you are trying to make. However that is like saying if you take out one playback game NU would have 9 wins. I don't think you can take out a stinker. They own every game every rush and every play counting all of that, 2015 was almost a full yard per rush better which is significant

 

[knapplc]

Wisconsin last year was a disaster. But controlling for that game, which had a RB of much higher quality than any faced this year, the stats in run defense end up being quite similar.

Neither proving nor disproving this allegation about Wisconsin, I looked at the numbers. If this exercise proved anything, it's that putting numbers into a spreadsheet is always entertaining.

Including Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 487 rushes, giving up 2,357 yards. That's 4.84 yards per carry.

Excluding Wisconsin, 2014 Nebraska faced 434 rushes, giving up 1,776 yards. That's 4.09 yards per carry.

2015 Nebraska faced 380 rushes, giving up 1,428 yards. That's 3.76 yards per carry.

Excluding 2015 Nebraska's worst rush defense game (Purdue), Nebraska faced 343 rushes and gave up 1,245 yards. That's 3.63 yards per carry.

An apples-to-apples comparison, total games vs. total games, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 1.08 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

A second apples-to-apples comparison, worst game taken out for both, shows the 2014 Huskers gave up 0.46 more yards per carry than the 2015 Huskers.

Not to nit-pick but I see slightly different numbers on Huskers.com

All games:

2015 - 1428 yards allowed on 379 attempts for 3.77 ypa

2014 - 2312 yards allowed on 488 attempts for 4.74 ypa

2013 - 2030 yards allowed on 538 attempts for 3.77 ypa

Less worst game:

2015 - 1245 yards allowed on 342 attempts for 3.64 ypa

2014 - 1731 yards allowed on 435 attempts for 3.98 ypa

2013 - 1759 yards allowed on 484 attempts for 3.63 ypa

So the 2015 defense was all but identical to the 2013 version on both. 2015 was basically one yard per attempt better overall and about a foot better per attempt adjusted. Somewhat better than last year, no discernible difference from the year before.

But I'm not sure even that tells the whole story. I think it's pretty obvious that the quality of rushing attack we faced this year was a significant drop-off from last year. Impossible to quantify but Miami, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State were all minus their starting RB from 2014. Miami and Wisconsin were short there best two RBs from the previous year and four of those guys were drafted last June.

So I don't think it's a stretch to say there was not a lot of difference in how successful our rush defense was this year compared to previous years. Probably slightly better than last year but a lot of the difference can also be attributed to the quality of the opponents.

You're right. I clearly finger-fumbled keying in those numbers. I threw away the chart so I can't even see which numbers I got wrong, but I redid 2014 and I also show 2,312 yards on 488 attempts. I presume there was an error on 2015 as well.

 

[Mavric]

I kind of disagree. I see the point you are trying to make. However that is like saying if you take out one playback game NU would have 9 wins. I don't think you can take out a stinker. They own every game every rush and every play counting all of that, 2015 was almost a full yard per rush better which is significant

Generally speaking I agree. In this case, I think it's at least valid to look at. Not totally discounting the Wisconsin game from 2014 but it's such an outlier for several reasons. First, Wisconsin knew how to formation and motion us into bad spots like no one else has done. Second, they were the #4 rushing team in the country that year - significantly better than any other team we've faced in the last three years. Plus they had one of the most prolific RBs in the history of college football. They were so much different than everyone else, I make an exception in this case.

And even without throwing out the Wisconsin 2014 game, if you compare the 2013 season to 2015, you see that it's basically identical. So that's another reason to look a little bit deeper into what was different in 2014.

 

[olddominionhusker]

It's been mentioned a couple times on this board that a number of the people on the dl are having issues with the coaches, most notably Vv. This issue I believe (I am speculating here) is the major cause for Vv considering leaving early.

So, let me get this straight.
We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

And these guys have a problem?

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

So let me get this straight. Let's say that this is in fact true and that VV does not like the coaches(I don't know if it is or not). Who is in a better position to judge that, him or you? I understand that you are part of the all-in defend the staff at all costs cadre, but I think the person who is actually around the coaches every day probably has a little more informed opinion on the matter. Particularly when it directly concerns their future

 

[BigRedBuster]

It's been mentioned a couple times on this board that a number of the people on the dl are having issues with the coaches, most notably Vv. This issue I believe (I am speculating here) is the major cause for Vv considering leaving early.

So, let me get this straight.
We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

And these guys have a problem?

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

So let me get this straight. Let's say that this is in fact true and that VV does not like the coaches(I don't know if it is or not). Who is in a better position to judge that, him or you?I understand that you are part of the all-in defend the staff at all costs cadre, but I think the person who is actually around the coaches every day probably has a little more informed opinion on the matter. Particularly when it directly concerns their future

Wow dude....

I have never said VV shouldn't be the one making the decisions that's best for him. And, I have never said he has no clue what he is talking about.

What I HAVE said and discussed ( which I would think would be appropriate on a football message board) is what seems to me to possibly be a bad choice for him if it is simply on the basis of..."oh, I don't like these coaches".

There is a big difference there.

Oh....and for the part in bold just deserves a

I didn't know I was part of a "cadre". Hmmm.....

 

[BigRedBuster]

Speaking of VV....

Here are his stats from last year.

10 total tackles

4 solo

6 assisted

1 QB hurry

3 sacks.

 

[olddominionhusker]

It's been mentioned a couple times on this board that a number of the people on the dl are having issues with the coaches, most notably Vv. This issue I believe (I am speculating here) is the major cause for Vv considering leaving early.

So, let me get this straight.
We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

And these guys have a problem?

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

So let me get this straight. Let's say that this is in fact true and that VV does not like the coaches(I don't know if it is or not). Who is in a better position to judge that, him or you?I understand that you are part of the all-in defend the staff at all costs cadre, but I think the person who is actually around the coaches every day probably has a little more informed opinion on the matter. Particularly when it directly concerns their future

Wow dude....
I have never said VV shouldn't be the one making the decisions that's best for him. And, I have never said he has no clue what he is talking about.

What I HAVE said and discussed ( which I would think would be appropriate on a football message board) is what seems to me to possibly be a bad choice for him if it is simply on the basis of..."oh, I don't like these coaches".

There is a big difference there.

Oh....and for the part in bold just deserves a

I didn't know I was part of a "cadre". Hmmm.....

So based on your completely uniformed opinion and without any knowledge of the actual situation between VV and the coaches you feel he is making a bad choice. Got it.

 

[BigRedBuster]

It's been mentioned a couple times on this board that a number of the people on the dl are having issues with the coaches, most notably Vv. This issue I believe (I am speculating here) is the major cause for Vv considering leaving early.

So, let me get this straight.
We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

And these guys have a problem?

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

So let me get this straight. Let's say that this is in fact true and that VV does not like the coaches(I don't know if it is or not). Who is in a better position to judge that, him or you?I understand that you are part of the all-in defend the staff at all costs cadre, but I think the person who is actually around the coaches every day probably has a little more informed opinion on the matter. Particularly when it directly concerns their future

Wow dude....
I have never said VV shouldn't be the one making the decisions that's best for him. And, I have never said he has no clue what he is talking about.

What I HAVE said and discussed ( which I would think would be appropriate on a football message board) is what seems to me to possibly be a bad choice for him if it is simply on the basis of..."oh, I don't like these coaches".

There is a big difference there.

Oh....and for the part in bold just deserves a

I didn't know I was part of a "cadre". Hmmm.....

So based on your completely uniformed opinion and without any knowledge of the actual situation between VV and the coaches you feel he is making a bad choice. Got it.

I guess I don't see the problem with me discussing something in an open forum on what we think is good for the program or players involved.

I will take this comment to mean that absolutely everything you discuss from here on out you have intimate knowledge of and are a perfect expert on the fine details of every situation.

Got it.

Sorry if I offended you Vince.....er......eh em....

 

[olddominionhusker]

It's been mentioned a couple times on this board that a number of the people on the dl are having issues with the coaches, most notably Vv. This issue I believe (I am speculating here) is the major cause for Vv considering leaving early.

So, let me get this straight.
We just went through a season where we saw great improvement from the front seven with rushing defense and as a whole, that made them a better unit all around.

And these guys have a problem?

So, coaches get you to play better as a unit and you don't like that?

So let me get this straight. Let's say that this is in fact true and that VV does not like the coaches(I don't know if it is or not). Who is in a better position to judge that, him or you?I understand that you are part of the all-in defend the staff at all costs cadre, but I think the person who is actually around the coaches every day probably has a little more informed opinion on the matter. Particularly when it directly concerns their future

Wow dude....
I have never said VV shouldn't be the one making the decisions that's best for him. And, I have never said he has no clue what he is talking about.

What I HAVE said and discussed ( which I would think would be appropriate on a football message board) is what seems to me to possibly be a bad choice for him if it is simply on the basis of..."oh, I don't like these coaches".

There is a big difference there.

Oh....and for the part in bold just deserves a

I didn't know I was part of a "cadre". Hmmm.....

So based on your completely uniformed opinion and without any knowledge of the actual situation between VV and the coaches you feel he is making a bad choice. Got it.

I guess I don't see the problem with me discussing something in an open forum on what we think is good for the program or players involved.
I will take this comment to mean that absolutely everything you discuss from here on out you have intimate knowledge of and are a perfect expert on the fine details of every situation.

Got it.

Sorry if I offended you Vince.....er......eh em....

Nice try but no. This speculation in this situation is that there is an issue between VV and the coaching staff. If that is the case, then yes commenting one way or the other is stupid because it could very well involve some sort of personal conflict. Without knowledge of what that situation is what's the point in passing judgement on his decision.

When personal feelings get involved, people on the outside have no objective frame of reference.

If you want to say VV isn't good enough to Goto the NFL based on his play and or stats, I think that's fair game. I would actually tend to agree with you that he could probably help his draft status by staying albeit with a risk of injury.

But this situation obviously involves some discontent with the coaching staff and without knowledge of what exactly that is I'm not going to say he's making a bad decision. And if he isn't getting on well with his coaches do we really need that?