Comparing Recruiting Classes

Also, if a coach is taking pretty much the maximum he can take each year, that's all he can do as far as numbers. The Big Ten has greatly limited the coach's ability to play with numbers and sign huge classes. I agree with the rule, but....again, it's not really fair to compare us to programs that are going to sign 28-30 players by simply ranking them.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Also, if a coach is taking pretty much the maximum he can take each year, that's all he can do as far as numbers. The Big Ten has greatly limited the coach's ability to play with numbers and sign huge classes. I agree with the rule, but....again, it's not really fair to compare us to programs that are going to sign 28-30 players by simply ranking them.
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I believe 247 only counts the top 20 kids of each class so it is completely fair.

 
huskerhill said:
BigRedBuster said:
Also, if a coach is taking pretty much the maximum he can take each year, that's all he can do as far as numbers. The Big Ten has greatly limited the coach's ability to play with numbers and sign huge classes. I agree with the rule, but....again, it's not really fair to compare us to programs that are going to sign 28-30 players by simply ranking them.
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I believe 247 only counts the top 20 kids of each class so it is completely fair.
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Pretty sure it's Rivals that does that. 247 uses them all, iirc.

 
2011 looked good on paper but take a closer look at the players and see that a lot of the higher profile stars from that class contributed next to zero for the team.

So with that being said, this is probably going to be the best class in the last 11 years.

 
Mavric said:
huskerhill said:
BigRedBuster said:
Also, if a coach is taking pretty much the maximum he can take each year, that's all he can do as far as numbers. The Big Ten has greatly limited the coach's ability to play with numbers and sign huge classes. I agree with the rule, but....again, it's not really fair to compare us to programs that are going to sign 28-30 players by simply ranking them.
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I believe 247 only counts the top 20 kids of each class so it is completely fair.
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Pretty sure it's Rivals that does that. 247 uses them all, iirc.
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However, I like 247 composite rating because it's not just relying on one service to rate the players.

 
StPaulHusker said:
2011 looked good on paper but take a closer look at the players and see that a lot of the higher profile stars from that class contributed next to zero for the team.

So with that being said, this is probably going to be the best class in the last 11 years.
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Could be. We won't know that for 3-4 years.

 
Here are the correct numbers based on the scholarship signees using 247 Composite

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)

02 .8316 18 (2)

03 .8316 19 (2)

04 .8237 20 (2)
05* .8523 32 (7)
06* .8493 22 (5)
07* .8587 26 (6)
08 .8449 29 (3)
09 .8580 19 (2)
10* .8642 20 (5)
11 .8832 21 (9)
12 .8773 17 (8)
13 .8654 24 (7)
14 .8601 24 (2)
15 .8616 21 (4)
16 .8702 (So far) 15 (3)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals

* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals

* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list

* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

 
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Mavric said:
Here are the correct numbers based on the scholarship signees using 247 Composite

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)

02 .8316 18 (2)

03 .8316 19 (2)

04 .8237 20 (2)

05* .8523 32 (7)

06* .8493 22 (5)

07* .8587 26 (6)

08 .8449 29 (3)

09 .8580 19 (2)

10* .8642 20 (5)

11 .8832 21 (9)

12 .8773 17 (8)

13 .8654 24 (7)

14 .8601 24 (2)

15 .8616 21 (4)

16 .8702 (So far) 15 (3)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals

* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals

* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list

* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings
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Wow......good work.

Kudos to you.

 
The fact we can't win a conference championship with the recruiting classes of 11-12-13 is ridiculous. Screw championship. SEVEN GAMES. We can't win 7 games with 24 four star players walking in the door in a three year span?

 
Mavric said:
Here are the correct numbers based on the scholarship signees using 247 Composite

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)

02 .8316 18 (2)

03 .8316 19 (2)

04 .8237 20 (2)

05* .8523 32 (7)

06* .8493 22 (5)

07* .8587 26 (6)

08 .8449 29 (3)

09 .8580 19 (2)

10* .8642 20 (5)

11 .8832 21 (9)

12 .8773 17 (8)

13 .8654 24 (7)

14 .8601 24 (2)

15 .8616 21 (4)

16 .8702 (So far) 15 (3)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals

* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals

* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list

* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings
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Great job to the OP and Mav. Back before work got in the way I started to do a correlation project to compare the rankings to actual value contributed, it turned into a comparison to other teams and a true look at rankings to BCS participation. Then work got in the way, may dust it off, this summary is a great start if I can because I was only going off Rivals and Scout as 247 wasn't around yet. I like their composite ranking quite a bit. I believe the rankings are a great guide, but not the whole story. There are many examples where the results out did the class ranking, was the coach better at talent eval, IMO yes, or were they simply really good at squeezing everything out of a player, or both?
I have been continually confounded how the '10 and '11 and '12 classes haven't been better in results to date.

 
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Atbone95 said:
The fact we can't win a conference championship with the recruiting classes of 11-12-13 is ridiculous. Screw championship. SEVEN GAMES. We can't win 7 games with 24 four star players walking in the door in a three year span?
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You do realize how many of those players left fairly shortly after they got here, right?

 
BlitzFirst said:
Atbone95 said:
The fact we can't win a conference championship with the recruiting classes of 11-12-13 is ridiculous. Screw championship. SEVEN GAMES. We can't win 7 games with 24 four star players walking in the door in a three year span?
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2011 4* No Longer with the Team

Bubba Starling (Baseball)

Todd Peat (transfer)

Ryan Klachko (transfer)

Tyler Moore (transfer)

Daimion Stafford (graduated)

Aaron Green (transfer)

Jamal Turner (graduated)

Ryne Reeves (graduated)

2012 4* No Longer with the Team

Imani Cross (graduated)

Jared Afalava (transfer)

Mo Seisay (graduated)

2013 4* No Longer with the Team

Randy Gregory (NFL)

Johnny Stanton (transfer)

Out of nine 4*'s in 2011...1 didn't play (Bubba), 4 transferred and 3 contributed and graduated. 1 is still with the team (Charles Jackson)

Out of eight 4*s in 2012...2 contributed and graduated, 1 transferred. 5 are still with the team (Thurston, McMullen, Westerkamp, Rose, Armstrong)

Out of seven 4*'s in 2013...1 transferred, 1 left for the NFL. 5 are still with the team (T. Newby, Taylor, Banderas, M. Newby, Natter)

That leaves us with 11 out of 24 that can contribute this next year.

Oddly enough, that number was only 14 out of 24 in 2015.

So, the 2011 class was probably the biggest bust in the history of Nebraska recruiting...because everyone left. You can't build around a core of athletes you don't have.
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Yep

 
Mavric said:
Here are the correct numbers based on the scholarship signees using 247 Composite

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)

02 .8316 18 (2)

03 .8316 19 (2)

04 .8237 20 (2)

05* .8523 32 (7)

06* .8493 22 (5)

07* .8587 26 (6)

08 .8449 29 (3)

09 .8580 19 (2)

10* .8642 20 (5)

11 .8832 21 (9)

12 .8773 17 (8)

13 .8654 24 (7)

14 .8601 24 (2)

15 .8616 21 (4)

16 .8702 (So far) 15 (3)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals

* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals

* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list

* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings
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Once again, Mav....Great job on the work you put in. I was too lazy to do it.

Looking at what I believe is our 10 top targets I think we can sign at least 4 of them. I'm purposely trying to be conservative with that number:

a) Lets say we sign the top 4 along with all we already have committed. That would be Jackson, Farniok, Fitzpatrick, Simmons. Those 4 average .9140. That would bring our average for the class up to .8794.

b) Let's say we sign the bottom 4 along with all we already have committed. That would be Butler, Watts, Ivey, Sails. Those 4 average .8637. That would bring our average for the class to .8688.

So....for the top 19 players, I see our range being somewhere between .8688 and .8794.

Now, if we are going to have 23 players, let's say we reach out to 4 more players that are lower 3* and that have an average rating of .8200. That puts our projected final average rating between .8603 and .8691.

That would rank this class anywhere from 6th to 3rd when looking at our classes since 2002. Pretty much in line with the last three years.

Now...as has been pointed out, the real crux of it is, how many of our top recruits will we be able to keep and have contribute. That is going to be the difference maker.

For the people who act like they are in panic mode as far as recruiting.....we are far from that situation.

 
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Another interesting part to your info is this.

From 2004 to 2007, we brought 100 players into the program.

From 2012 to 2015, we brought 86 players into the program.

That's 14 fewer scholarship players Nebraska coaches had a chance to work with.

 
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