Huskers a Huge Outlier When Comparing Turnover Margin to Win Percentage

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
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The Huskers improved late in Frost’s first season but still finished minus-2 in turnover margin. Since 2004, Nebraska has been in the black just twice — 2009 and 2016. That’s not a recipe for division titles.

Just behind Nebraska in win percentage (29th-best of 65 programs) is Arizona State. Its turnover margin? Plus-65. Kansas State is behind Nebraska, too. Its turnover margin? Plus-54.

Meanwhile, these are the six programs directly ahead of Nebraska in win percentage:

» South Carolina (plus-17 turnover margin)

» Miami (plus-31)

» Missouri (plus-48)

» Iowa (plus-71)

» Michigan State (plus-45)

» Stanford (plus-44)

Makes you wonder how the Huskers won as many games as they did.
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OWH ($)

 
Oregon stands out as significant in this graphic.  They have run a similar offense to what we're using, and still have an outstanding turnover margin.  I would expect at team like Iowa to have an excellent turnover margin due to the nature of their offense, very low risk, but was surprised to see Oregon even better given the explosive nature of their offensive style.

 
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Can't read the article 'cuz of the paywall, but if am I reading the chart correctly - we have been dead last in turnover margin since 04?

 
Ulty said:
Can't read the article 'cuz of the paywall, but if am I reading the chart correctly - we have been dead last in turnover margin since 04?
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Yes.

From Dirk:

From 2004-18, Nebraska ranked 65th among Power Five programs in turnover margin. Dead last.

But Nebraska is 116-77 during that span — a 60% win percentage.
“That shocks me,” Frost says, “because you’re not supposed to be minus-80 and win games. I think that probably speaks to Nebraska underachieving.
“I wouldn’t call that an overachievement by winning, I would characterize that as having a team good enough to win a bunch of games but shooting itself in the foot a lot, like we did at the beginning of last year.”
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The whole article is grim reading.  It's the 2009 Iowa State game of reading.

The whole thing can be summed up with: We have, by far, been our own worst enemy when it comes to losing. And the turnover margin is a huge symptom of that.

 
ZRod said:
Can we correlate this to Addidas teams and others? I swear it's the balls.
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Of the bottom 10 or so turnover teams that are visible. Here is the quick run down. Spoiler alert it's not the balls.

NU - Adidas, Illinois - Nike, Washington State - Nike, Purdue - Nike, Ole Miss - Nike, CU - Nike, Maryland (covering another school) - Under Armour, Texas Tech - Under Armour,  Duke - Nike, Kansas - Adidas, Indiana - Adidas, Oregon State - Nike, Michigan - Nike, UNC - Nike, I am going to stop there.

Most schools have Nike, So most turnovers, most wins, etc will be Nike.

 
307husker said:
Oregon stands out as significant in this graphic.  They have run a similar offense to what we're using, and still have an outstanding turnover margin.  I would expect at team like Iowa to have an excellent turnover margin due to the nature of their offense, very low risk, but was surprised to see Oregon even better given the explosive nature of their offensive style.
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Explosiveness does not always equal risk. This offense and Oregons offense as well is designed to keep the defense in conflict and make it easy for the QB to protect the football.

 
knapplc said:
The whole thing can be summed up with: We have, by far, been our own worst enemy when it comes to losing. And the turnover margin is a huge symptom of that.
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I'm sure people get tired of me beating this drum when Northwestern comes up.

But they have been nowhere near as good as we have.  We have just managed to shoot ourselves in the foot often enough for most of the games to end up being close.

 
Moiraine said:
Don’t our opponents use the same ball? (I don’t actually know).
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Nope. They switch out balls for each offense. Even if we both use Adidas balls they will switch them. Each team usually has their logo stamped on the ball. You'll also see the ball boys wearing different team caps.

 
ZRod said:
Nope. They switch out balls for each offense. Even if we both use Adidas balls they will switch them. Each team usually has their logo stamped on the ball. You'll also see the ball boys wearing different team caps.
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I see. This would be fun to look into. 

 
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