Huskers a Huge Outlier When Comparing Turnover Margin to Win Percentage

knapplc said:
Yes.

From Dirk:

The whole article is grim reading.  It's the 2009 Iowa State game of reading.

The whole thing can be summed up with: We have, by far, been our own worst enemy when it comes to losing. And the turnover margin is a huge symptom of that.
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The good news is it is easily correctable. We have athletes, coaching, facilities, supporting administration, and a supporting fan base.

 
Moiraine said:
Don’t our opponents use the same ball? (I don’t actually know).
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It's allowed but never done. Here's the rules:

c. The home team is responsible for providing legal balls and should notify
the opponent of the ball to be used.
d. During the entire game, either team may use a new or nearly new ball of
its choice when it is in possession, providing the ball meets the required
specifications and has been measured and tested according to rule
(Exception: The official NCAA football shall be used for the Division I
Football Championship Subdivision, II and III championships).
e. The visiting team is responsible for providing the legal balls it wishes to
use while it is in possession if the balls provided by the home team are not
acceptable.
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My son started playing junior football in 2nd grade, he's now a senior. I can't remember ever using the other teams balls or them using our balls. Teams use the worst legal ball they can for punts and kickoffs. I imagine if the visitors wanted to use the home teams balls, they'd get the worst ones.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
Honestly, Northwestern hasn't been better the past few years against most teams, they seem to want to hang in the game and try to have the other team make mistakes.  It's a good strategy when they are working with inferior talent and it works for them.  But, their success is more dependent on the other team screwing up.
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Yeah, that's why they have as many 5-7 seasons as 10-3 seasons recently.  They are right on the edge.  If they catch a couple breaks (i.e., other teams screwing up a bit more), they pick up a couple extra wins.  If not, they're basically a .500 team.

Last year they were #108 in yards per game and #64 in yards allowed per game.  They are not really good at anything except not making big screwups.

 
Landlord said:
I mean, if I remember right T-Mart led the nation in fumbles (maybe just for quarterbacks, maybe for all players) all of his first three years starting. Ameer also put the ball on the ground more than he should've. The Pelini years are the biggest contributor to this 2004-present stat as his teams were never great with the ball and he never saw fit to really focus on the team getting any better in that regard.

But yeah, we've been one of the weirdest enigmas in college football for the last 20 years. 
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I was going to mention the Martinez stats. Like you, IIRC, T Mart led the nation in fumbles.  It's incredibly hard to beat equal to better teams if we consistently turn the ball over.....Which we have done with alarming regularity.  Stop the TO's and the wins will come.  

 
brophog said:
Because turnovers carry such weight in the outcome, it’s a trivial response. It’s the next closest thing to suggesting you’d win more if you just scored more points than the other team.
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And yet, my biggest concern came to fruition during an 0-6 start. We turn over the ball less, we win more...simple,/ right?

i was pointing out that last season big concerns were position players, depth, new coaches/schemes/experience...my biggest concern was literally turnovers. 

And this graph/stat shows my concern was legitimate. 

This season my biggest concern is not turnovers. I think we’ll greatly improve that category. So it’s not my biggest concern, as is not scoring more points than the other team. 

My biggest concern is heath and pressure.  I think the hype train is running way too fast for our team. I just want them to be able to play and be themselves. Also, while depth has improved I’m worried an injury here or there on the wrong group can derail us. 

So no, turnovers are not a big concern for me personally, this season. The graph CLEARLY shows that we’ve won more than we “should” have based on turnover logic. Last season that was my biggest concern. This season it is not. 

 
I am I said:
And this graph/stat shows my concern was legitimate
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The thing that would make such a thing a legitimate concern is if you expressed why last season, specifically, was more likely to result in a poor turnover margin than any other year. And if you can do that with a stat that has such a huge element of randomness, beyond simple regression to the mean, then you need to stop typing, go to Vegas, and make a ton of money.

 
They took the paywall off this article for anyone who is interested. I thought the information posted here was shocking, but just wait tell you read the full article!

 
Mavric said:
I'm sure people get tired of me beating this drum when Northwestern comes up.

But they have been nowhere near as good as we have.  We have just managed to shoot ourselves in the foot often enough for most of the games to end up being close.
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Give credit where credit is due. Fitzgerald is a damn good coach. His teams know how to find ways to win. We don't, yet. Have you seen their record against B1G opponents the past few seasons? Have you seen ours? Since Bo was fired, they've gotten better.

I'm sorry but I have to call out homers when I see them. We have a lot to prove. NW exceeds their talent which led to a division title. If Nebraska does that, we probably win conference titles. I'm on your side, but you've got to acknowledge that Northwestern does not automatically fall into the win column for any program that plays them anymore.

 
FTW said:
Give credit where credit is due. Fitzgerald is a damn good coach. His teams know how to find ways to win. We don't, yet. Have you seen their record against B1G opponents the past few seasons? Have you seen ours? Since Bo was fired, they've gotten better.

I'm sorry but I have to call out homers when I see them. We have a lot to prove. NW exceeds their talent which led to a division title. If Nebraska does that, we probably win conference titles. I'm on your side, but you've got to acknowledge that Northwestern does not automatically fall into the win column for any program that plays them anymore.
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Eh ... it's kind of a semantic argument.  I don't think he's necessarily a really good coach.  I do give him credit for preparing his team to win how they have to win - don't turn the ball over, don't get penalties, play defense, hope to be close at the end - but I don't think that's all that huge of an accomplishment.  And I think he's a pretty below-average in-game coach.

I think he gets a lot of credit because he's kind of in a win-win situation.  If they have a good season, he's said to have done a great job.  If they have a bad season, people shrug it off as it's a tough place to win.  And of course there's truth to that.  But I'm not sure really good coaches are still going 5-7 and finishing at the bottom of their division after they've been at a place for 9 years. 

I'm not sure what you're getting at by trying to compare him the the worst coach we've had in the last 70 years.  He's better than our worst?  OK.  Good for him I guess.

I think all fans are probably homers to some extent.  But I'm not discrediting them to make us look better.  It's a fact that we have completely out-played them most of the times we've met up since we joined the B1G.  The main reason most of the games have been close is because we've shot ourselves in the foot repeatedly.  That doesn't make Fitzgerald a better coach.

Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern

2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468

2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301

2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326

2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290

2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333

2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388

 2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475

 2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487

Really only 2011 and 2017 did they out-play us. 

2012-2014 we dominated them - two of them we only won by one and three points but we did that to ourselves.  

2015 we out-played them but still managed to lose

Last year they ended up just ahead of us only after we checked it in six minutes early and they racked up 170 yards late.  Credit to them for that but we dominated most of that game.

Last year was a really good year for them.  They had the #64 defense in the country and the #108 offense.  Those are below-average and abysmal numbers.  Those aren't the marks of a very good coach.  

 
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