IF We Swing and Miss Badly...Why?

Landlord of Memorial Stadium said:
An Urban Meyer or a Nick Saban could definitely recruit to Nebraska, sure. I believe they could average top-10 classes.

Trouble is. An Urban Meyer and a Nick Saban aren't going to take a job at Nebraska, so that doesn't really matter.

Scott Frost might be our only good shot at being an elite program ever again. Think about it - the two coaches responsible for Nebraska football being what it is were Devaney and Osborne. Osborne is a small-town Nebraska kid, born and raised, and Devaney lived in a world that looked a lot different than the one in 2017 - a world where it was a lot easier to be successful and content in a profession like football coaching in a place like Nebraska. We have never really had any history with 'mercenary' coaches, and the odds are very much stacked against us that if we ever offer truckloads of cash to someone that would be considered an 'outsider', that they'll either fail, or they'll leave the second an easier opportunity comes their way.
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I would agree. You need someone in charge that truly believes Nebraska can be elite, not someone just hoping they can get there. It takes a special person. Not saying Riley doesn't believe it, but he may not know what it takes to make Nebraska elite. It's a unique place.

 
Nebraska has disadvantages in recruiting as compared to many top twenty level programs. They have been discussed repeatedly for decades. One of the more important factors that doesn't seem to get discussed is underlying economic changes. The cost of schooling includes more than just tuition and books and fees of course. While student athletes are now receiving some kind of stipends and other forms of aid to help with the personal and indirect costs, I believe there are still basic prohibitions on student athletes holding down jobs while going to school (for obvious reasons having to do with 'extra benefits' and financial cheating'.

In addition to the costs for the student for personal and travel and other related things that nearly all people want/need, there are the costs involved in travel to and from Lincoln for the families and friends. Many parents and siblings, etc would like to attend some of the athlete's games, and visit as often as they can. Distance travel is more difficult, financially and sometimes logistically, for those folks too. Staying close to home or attending in locations where travel by car instead of planes, trains and buses, etc are more affordable and workable. This is a great challenge for many today.

More games are on TV which may help in many instances but they are typically regional and not national. A player from California is not likely to have his Big Ten games on west coast stations while Pac 12 may be.

Recruiting nationally is without a doubt the most difficult, costly and burdensome for the schools, the athletes and certainly the coaches and staffs. Social media may neutralize some of the 'connectivity' but the physical distance remains a tremendous hurdle. Having every possible advantage and going the extra 1000 miles is absolutely a MUST in Lincoln. It is not for Cal, Tex, most SECs, and some in the Big Ten and many on the east coast.

This in turn, in my view, argues that Nebraska has to distinguish itself from all the rest (there is no place like Nebraska) in every way possible. For example, perhaps our unique offense (the Osbone) helped open up a few doors to get us over the top with some of the nation's elite athletes across the country because we were their best option - as distinct from switching positions for example to play locally.

 
<< Trouble is. An Urban Meyer and a Nick Saban aren't going to take a job at Nebraska, so that doesn't really matter.>>

I disagree. Money talks. If you show that you're willing to pay big $ for a big name, there will be interest. I have no doubt Les Miles would come if offered. His son will be coming, and he's looking for one last chance to prove himself. He's an excellent recruiter, has beaten Saban multiple times, and had ties to the South. Chip Kelly is another.

People told me a few years ago that Petersen would never, ever leave Boise, how he loved it there, they provided medical services for his son and blah blah blah. We all see how that turned out.

You never know unless you try. Some people have given up and become content with mediocrity, simply because of these preconceived notions that an elite coach won't come here. That's B.S.

As far as Frost goes, I like him. But I'm not sure that he'd be able to recruit any better than what we have experienced over the past decade. He really needs to have a breakout season similar to what Pj Fleck or Tom Herman had... that's when you pursue him, while he's a hot name on the coaching circuit. But if he never has that breakout, and never becomes a hot name, then why would top recruits want to play for him? Answer is, they won't.

 
I was trying to post in here yesterday but kept getting a message saying the site was not secured which was weird. Anyway, I was very discouraged like many on here with the outcomes of yesterday. After letting the bad news sit for 24 hours, I am still frustrated but I do hope that this staff has a backup plan.

As for where NU needs to finish each year from a recruiting perspective, I believe consistently finishing in the top 15 will enable them to be competitive again against the toughest teams in the country. I have done quite a bit of analysis of the average recruiting rankings from some of the top teams over the past couple seasons, and where they ranked on average the prior 4 seasons (when you average Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN), and those teams ending the season in the top 10 were mostly the same teams that also consistently had a top 10 or 15 recruiting class. Nebraska's average recruiting class under Pelini was around 25 to 27, and so far our current 2017 class is ranked 27th by Scout and 38th by Rivals (this was as of yesterday). For Nebraska to land in the top 15, they have to haul in several remaining targets including Lewis, Johnson, Daniels and other targets. I am skeptical at this point that they will get Lewis or Johnson. If we end this years recruiting process ranked in the 20s or worse, I will consider it a major failure despite all the effort this staff has put into the process.

http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/82024-recruiting-grades/

 
Mavric said:
He got a Top 5 class mostly on the back of signing 32 (ish) guys in that class. The average rating of that class was significantly lower than most of the classes we've signed since.
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"Mainly" on the back of signing 32? If you want to compare apples-apples - take the top 20 of that class. They had an average star rating of 3.75. You don't think that two 5* recruits, eleven 4* recruits, and seven 3* guys would rank higher than our current class? To me that looks a hell of lot like current LSU's #7 class - even a better by a couple 4* guys. Still all about size?

...back then the rankings were primarily only determined by the top 20 - with the average star rating of the last 12(ish) actually bringing the overall ranking down....

 
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kchusker_chris said:
Mavric said:
He got a Top 5 class mostly on the back of signing 32 (ish) guys in that class. The average rating of that class was significantly lower than most of the classes we've signed since.
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"Mainly" on the back of signing 32? If you want to compare apples-apples - take the top 20 of that class. They had an average star rating of 3.75. You don't think that two 5* recruits, eleven 4* recruits, and seven 3* guys would rank higher than our current class? To me that looks a hell of lot like current LSU's #7 class - even a better by a couple 4* guys. Still all about size?

...back then the rankings were primarily only determined by the top 20 - with the average star rating of the last 12(ish) actually bringing the overall ranking down....
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Yeah, you have that backwards. Back then Rivals used all the commits to determine the class ranking. So taking that many definitely helped push the overall ranking up. Now they only use the Top 20.

Also, Cally was pretty buddy-buddy with the Rivals guy so that might have helped his case. According to the 247 Composite, We had one five-star and six four-stars. That's still pretty good and we don't often get five-star guys.

But overall it's not greatly different than some of Bo's classes. Yes, the average would have been dragged down somewhat by having that many guys. But comparing the number of four-star and betters looks fairly similar.

Here's a comparison of all the classes that are listed in the 247 Composite:

So the average is lower and the number of four-stars or better is kind of average compared to the classes we've seen lately.

Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)

02 .8316 18 (2)

03 .8316 19 (2)

04 .8237 20 (2)

05* .8523 32 (7)

06* .8493 22 (5)

07* .8587 26 (6)

08 .8449 29 (3)

09 .8580 19 (2)

10* .8642 20 (5)

11 .8832 21 (9)

12 .8773 17 (8)

13 .8655 24 (7)

14 .8601 25 (2)

15 .8617 21 (4)

16 .8707 21 (5)

17 .8711 14 (3)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals

* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals

* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list

* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

So the average is lower and the number of four-stars or better is kind of average compared to the classes we've seen lately. But no I wouldn't turn it down this year.

 
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Mavric said:
Yeah, you have that backwards. Back then Rivals used all the commits to determine the class ranking. So taking that many definitely helped push the overall ranking up. Now they only use the Top 20.
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What are the similarities between the new formula and the old formula?One major similarity- only the top 20 commitments in each class are considered in the main variable of the formula. Both have bonuses for players ranked nationally, but the new formula accounts for the Rivals250. The old formula had bonuses for the Rivals100.

Guess we're both wrong. I thought they'd expanded it beyond the top 20. The main difference now is that they used to use ALL 32 for the average ranking (which brought you down when you had larger classes)...now it's just down to the top 20. Before it was top 20 for most of the other stuff, but it was expanded to the entire class when looking at the average component to the calc. I built the whole calc out a long time ago so remember it using the entire class for some components but only top 20 for others.

 
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Yes...offering Sabna or Meyer 90 Bajillion Gajillion dollars to leave their cushy jobs to come here might work....if we had 90 Bajillion Gajillion dollars to throw at them.

 
You don't read very well. Who said anything about hiring Saban or Meyer? I already stated that Saban and Meyer aren't realistic options. However, there are plenty of other big names out there -- Miles, Kelly, even Tressel. And yes, money talks. Throw 4 or 5 million at a big name guy and make him say no.

Or, you can take the cheap economical route and hire an unproven commodity and hope and pray and try to convince yourself that he'll somehow turn things around.

He won't.

 
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I am GLORIOUS said:
You don't read very well. Who said anything about hiring Saban or Meyer? I already stated that Saban and Meyer aren't realistic options. However, there are plenty of other big names out there -- Miles, Kelly, even Tressel. And yes, money talks. Throw 4 or 5 million at a big name guy and make him say no.

Or, you can take the cheap economical route and hire an unproven commodity and hope and pray and try to convince yourself that he'll somehow turn things around.

He won't.
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Money isnt everything. USC offered Peterson a TON of money to leave Boise State, he didnt leave. He took less money at Washington for many reasons.

I have been offered a position paying much more at another company, and turned it down. The company that offered didn't have near the benefits, the VP was known to be an a-hole, the clients had a reputation of being difficult to work with, and the company had a high employee turnover rate. It didnt want to pay the staff under me what was needed to be competitive, and the location didn't have a wealth of qualified people to fill the positions in the area. On top of that, they wanted me to relocate to a small town that had nothing worth writing home about. It was clear that the position was not setup to succeed.

I am not in any way saying that this is the current state of the coaching position at NU, but to think that throwing money at someone is going to fix everything is absurd.

 
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I am GLORIOUS said:
You don't read very well. Who said anything about hiring Saban or Meyer? I already stated that Saban and Meyer aren't realistic options. However, there are plenty of other big names out there -- Miles, Kelly, even Tressel. And yes, money talks. Throw 4 or 5 million at a big name guy and make him say no.

Or, you can take the cheap economical route and hire an unproven commodity and hope and pray and try to convince yourself that he'll somehow turn things around.

He won't.
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You don't understand how things work very well do you?
Riley just went 9-4, we aren't firing him to hire Chip Kelly or Les Miles and ESPECIALLY not Jim Tressel.

And guess what? You have made your opinion of the current staff plenty clear. You can stop forcing it down everyones throats and discuss the topics at hand.

 
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