Locks of the Weak

JJ Husker said:
Side totals? And is it really only 10.5?

My book doesn’t put those up (if at all) until a few hours before the game. I was able to take UTEP under 17.5 in a single game parlay but I don’t think that component was at -110.
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Yeah, my side totals usually open up a day before the game.  

I have a hard time believing that UTEP won't score over 10.  Huskers totals are 37.5.

 
Notre Dame +3 at Texas A&M
USC +5 vs LSU 
Iowa State - 27 vs North Dakota

Going with a few big marquee matchups.  So we shall see

 
teachercd said:
0-0

Army -31.5

Temple +42.5

UTEP over 10.5
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I wish I was in Vegas yesterday and today.  I would have played big, $1000, and $500 on 2team/3team parlays.  These lower FCS scrubs are getting destroyed and most teams are covering the high lines.

I took ISU at 27 and literally watched the line today move live up to -30 in 10 minutes lol.  

Also I think the sweet spot against scrub FCS teams is between -26 and -32.  Plus look at some of these schools?  You telling me if I wasn't in Vegas that $1000 on each game is a bad risk? Ha....  These teams are going to get murdered

San Diego State -34.5  at Home vs "Texas A&M Commerce"
Washington -26.5 at Home vs "Weber State"
Air Force -29.5 at Home vs "Merrimack College"
Baylor - 26.5 at Home vs "Tarleton"  (this moved up to 33 lol)
 

 
admo said:
Notre Dame +3 at Texas A&M - WON
USC +5 vs LSU - WON
Iowa State - 27 vs North Dakota - LOST

Going with a few big marquee matchups.  So we shall see
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2-1  

Was fun picking the big games. 

Never listen to CFB predictions or friends, because what they tell you who to pick, it goes down as a loss nearly every time.  As if they work for vegas.

I had Miami +2.5.  I liked it and wanted it.  Just like ND and USC.  But, nearly every prediction article or video went with Florida.  So I backed out of it.

And nearly every predictor (prediction article or video) said "take Iowa State, this is a no-brainer.  They have the Big 12 freshmen player of the year at QB, and they have 19 returning starters".

And I saw the line move from -27 to -30 and thought, "I guess it is a no-brainer".  But I also do not like betting against the Dakotas.  I didn't like this game to feel comfortable about, regardless if ISU "might smoke them" or not.  

I am never listening to anyone's prediction again.  I am okay with losing without their help to pick against what I want.  LOL

Just have fun with it and go for it.  Unless you putting big money down, like more than $20 bucks... or $100 or $1000.99.... lol

I am going to try to continue picking big games or matchups.  And I won't listen to previews and predictions from online.  Sorry a$$ Vegas cheaters sucking you in to balance the bet out.  LOL  

If you want to pick someone because you think they will be within 5 points, do it.  If a team that is a 2.5 point dog  and you think they will win the game, go for it.  You really don't need advice from online experts or preview match-up write-ups.  It will just piss you off more to listen to them, win or lose.  

 
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admo said:
2-1  

Was fun picking the big games. 

Never listen to CFB predictions or friends, because what they tell you who to pick, it goes down as a loss nearly every time.  As if they work for vegas.

I had Miami +2.5.  I liked it and wanted it.  Just like ND and USC.  But, nearly every prediction article or video went with Florida.  So I backed out of it.

And nearly every predictor (prediction article or video) said "take Iowa State, this is a no-brainer.  They have the Big 12 freshmen player of the year at QB, and they have 19 returning starters".

And I saw the line move from -27 to -30 and thought, "I guess it is a no-brainer".  But I also do not like betting against the Dakotas.  I didn't like this game to feel comfortable about, regardless if ISU "might smoke them" or not.  

I am never listening to anyone's prediction again.  I am okay with losing without their help to pick against what I want.  LOL

Just have fun with it and go for it.  Unless you putting big money down, like more than $20 bucks... or $100 or $1000.99.... lol

I am going to try to continue picking big games or matchups.  And I won't listen to previews and predictions from online.  Sorry a$$ Vegas cheaters sucking you in to balance the bet out.  LOL  

If you want to pick someone because you think they will be within 5 points, do it.  If a team that is a 2.5 point dog  and you think they will win the game, go for it.  You really don't need advice from online experts or preview match-up write-ups.  It will just piss you off more to listen to them, win or lose.  
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I am guessing that in the end, even the super "accurate" guys that pick games for a living, still are only hitting at 60% and that might be pushing it.  There are just so many variables.  I know they love "trends" but if those were super effective everyone would use them.

I think a fun way to do it is to look at the games without seeing the lines, try to come up with what you think the line should be and go from there.  

For instance, I think CU and NU should be a pickem game...so I am happy to take CU and the free 7 points.  

Clearly it doesn't always work because I am pretty sure my bookie has a boat named "Thanks, Teach".

 
GSG said:
Yikes

1-2

Iowa -2.5

Tennessee -8

OU/Houston over 49.5
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LOVE that Iowa line.  Every year ISU and their fan thinks that this is the year...and every year it is the lamest ugliest football game ever, played between two teams that are horrible and Iowa always wins.

 
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