Mavric's This and That Thread

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Don't know how many times I've done some research on something and posted it only to want it again a couple months later and can't find it. I like knapp's idea of storing it away so I stole it.

 
 
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Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)  

 02    .8316    18 (2)
 03    .8316    19 (2)
 04    .8331    20 (2)
 05*   .8589    31 (8)
 06*   .8592    22 (5)
 07*   .8587    26 (6)
 08    .8449    29 (3)
 09    .8580    19 (2)
 10*   .8642    20 (5)
 11    .8832    21 (9)
 12    .8791    17 (8)
 13    .8675    24 (7)
 14    .8495    25 (3)
 15    .8616    21 (4)
 16    .8686    21 (5)
 17    .8781    20 (6)

 18    .8768    24 (6)

 19    .8850    27 (7)

 20    .8805    25 (10)

 21    .8764    20 (4)

 22    .8668    18 (2)

 23    .8715    26 (2)

 24    .8807    31 (5)

* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings

 
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Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern

2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468

2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301

2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326

2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290

2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333

2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388

2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475

2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487

2019 (W): NU - 319; NW - 293

2020 (L): NU - 442; NW - 317

2021 (W): NU - 657; NW - 256

2022 (L): NU - 465; NW - 528

 
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Here's my read on the situation for now.  We don't really know if much of this is true ... we'll have a better idea in February but probably won't really know for another year or two.  But this is how I see the situation at the current juncture:

  • This staff has worked together and has a pretty good plan in place for how to find talent and recruit it once they find it.
  • Despite the "Frost doesn't like to recruit" narrative that was circulating a bit when he was hired, I think it's pretty obvious the opposite is true.  There have been many recruits that have comments about how involved Frost is once a target is identified, and the inference is that's not how it is with a lot of other schools.  Once they lock in on a guy, they really get after them.
  • They did an incredible job in a short amount of time with the 2018 class.  They were able to find guys they like and, in particular, guys who were ripe for the picking because of their situation.  Most of our highest-rated guys were snagged out of a JUCO where they weren't being recruited up to their rating (Woodyard, Bell, Honas, Williams), their previous commitment had issues (Martinez and Tannor) or they had other issues that scared other schools away (Washington).  That's being very resourceful with what they had to work with.
  • I think they are casing a pretty wide net with the 2019 class.  They were a long ways behind most everyone else with this class so they have some ground to make up.  Because of that - and because they are recruiting to a school that went 4-8 last year - I think they realize that they aren't going to get as much traction with the big fish right off the bat.  They're still working on them but it's going to take some on-field success to really get in the door with a lot of them.  Because of that, they're working overtime to get a lot of guys who might otherwise be a Plan B in our corner now.  Knowing we'll have another big class in terms of number of commitments, we are fine to get a good start on this class with some guys who they think are under-valued while they work their way up the list with the four-stars.  
  • I don't see this a panic at all.  I see it as pragmatic.  Everyone wants the best guys they can get.  But I think they are securing the base of this class with guys who they think are great fits and have potential to be solid contributors.  They don't want to get caught waiting on the big fish only to have the season not go very well and have nothing else built up behind it.  That's what happened to the previous staff all too often.  By doing it this way, they'll have guys they like recruited if they need more of the Plan B guys later.  But they'll be saving plenty of spots for the Plan A guys for when the season gets here and they can (hopefully) show what's happening on the field and get them here to visit for a game.
  • Another reason why I think the recruiting style we're seeing right now will diminish in future years is that they've already been hard at work on the 2020 class but we aren't seeing anywhere near the number of "Plan B" offers for that class.  They are really after the big fish there.  I would posit that's because they are betting on themselves to be able to build more relationships with those guys because they have a lot more time to work with.  They also have a lot more time to get those guys to campus and (again, hopefully) show them the progress being made on the field as a selling point.
  • These guys have a lot to sell.  They are still the hot commodity right now.  Everyone knows that they went undefeated and beat Auburn last year.  They also have their own history in playing and coaching to sell.  This stuff means a lot to a lot of recruits.


    Frost won a national championship as a player, coached in a national championship game at Oregon and played several years in the NFL
  • Walters played in the NFL
  • Chinander has coached in the NFL
  • Austin coached in a national championship game at Oregon and also coached in the NFL
  • Dawson coached in the NFL
  • Fisher played in the NFL
  • Held has a lot of pull in the JUCO world
  • Ruud played in the NFL



Again, none of that means anything until the results show up.  But they haven't really had much time to produce any results yet.  So until proven otherwise, I see a lot of reasons for optimism and not many reasons for doubt. 

Time will tell.

 
Here's a look at what we have done in the past:

2009:
Dejon Gomes - Second on the team in tackles; 4th round NFL draft pick
Brandon Kinnie - Graduated #11 in career receptions; NFL free agent signing

2010:
Lavonte David - B1G LB of the year; 2nd round NFL draft pick
Jermarcus Hardrick - NFL free agent signing
Chase Harper - Ummmmm.......
Stanley Jean-Baptiste - Second team All-BIG; made NFL roster

2011:
Joseph Carter - Contributor but nothing special
Daimion Stafford - Two year starter; 7th round NFL draft pick

2012:
Zaire Anderson - 5th leading tackler as a senior
Mohammed Seisay - Played sparingly

2013:
Matt Finnin - Bust
Randy Gregory - 1st team All-B1G
Chongo Kondolo - Starter his senior year

2014:

Joe Keels - Limited contribution

Byerson Cockrell - Started some as a junior and all senior year

So, by my count that's three home runs (Gomes, David & Gregory), three others who signed in the NFL (Kinnie, Hardrick & Stafford), four impact players (SJB, Anderson, Kondolo & Cockrell) and five busts (Harper, Carter, Seisay, Finnin & Keels).

From 2015-2017 we didn't take anyone (way to keep a good thing going, Riley).  

Now we're back into it but not having much success.

2018:

Jaron Woodyard - bust

Greg Bell - OK but quickly busted out

Will Honas - Solid starter

Deontai Williams - Solid starter

Mike Williams - Extremely limited contributions

2019:

Jahkeem Green - headed towards being a bust

Desmond Bland - Never got here

2020:

Omar Manning - Loading....???

Nadab Joseph - Loading...????

Eteva Mauga-Clements - not this year

Jordan Riley - Limited contribution

Jimari Bulter - not this year

Niko Cooper - Some contribution on special teams

Pheldarius Payne - Solid role player

Too many incompletes to give grades on but only a couple have even made it to solid starter yet which isn't great for the guys who are supposed to fill spots of need.

 
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From 2023:

I first ran this back in 2020.  Updated now.

It's pretty crazy how down Class A was for quite awhile and how it has turned quickly the last few years.

Here are the top five prospects from Nebraska according to the 247 Composite and which class they played in high school.  Players the Husker got are highlighted red.  Players are crossed out if they didn't go to a Power 5 school (Marsh originally walked-on at NU then transferred).

2024 - Nelson (C), Hall (A), McMorris (A), Kaelin (A), Pyfrom (A)

2023 - Coleman (A), Flores (B), McIntyre (C), Gottula (A), Noonan (A)

2022 - Jackson (A), Woods (A), Helms (A), Riley-Ducker (A), Stenger (A)

2021 - Dickerson (A), K. Johnson (A), Carnie (B), Prochazka (A), Bretz (A)

2020 - Betts (A), Watts (A), Swanson (A), Ducker (A), Gifford (A)

2019 - Henrich (A), Hickman (A), Nelson (B), Snodgrass (B), Piper (C)

2018 - Jurgens (B), Mapieu (B), Williams (A), Schlager (B), Stai (B)

2017 - Allen (B), Walker (A), Bradley (A), Strom (A), Kitrell (B)

2016 - Fant (A), Bubak (C), Stille (C), Manchigiah (A), Cromer (B)

2015 - Neal (A), Decker (A), Holtorf (B), Johnson (A), Strong (A)

2014 - Foster (A), Phillips (A), Stoltenberg (B), Gifford (A), Rose (A)

2013 - Banderas (A), LaCouture (A), Minter (A), Bazata (D), Sayles (A)

2012 - Bender (A), Ott (D), Cotton (A), Rahmings (C), Grigsby (A)

2011 - Reeves (B), Sterup (C), Davie (B), Fisher (A), Lampkin (A)

2010 - Rodriguez (B), Evans (B), Dietz (A), Cotton (A), Marsh (A)

2009 - Lechner (A), Sellers (B), Zimmerer (B), Pensick (A), Davis (A)

From 2009 to 2018, only 11 class A players have signed with the Huskers and two of them (I believe) were walk-ons.  Five from Class A went to other Power 5 schools though LaCouture shouldn't really count.

Over that same time frame, Class B produced 8 Huskers (two walk-ons).  So Class A only produced three more scholarship Huskers over those 10 years than Class B did.

For perspective, using current enrollment numbers but adjusting for how many schools have been in Classes A and B during the time frame above (it was changed in 2018), Class A has approximately 238% of the number of boys enrolled in school as Class B has.

In the six years since then, Class A has produced 13 Huskers and 8 other Power 5 players (Pyfrom pending).  And there have only been 4 non-Class A players in the Top five over the last five years.
 
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From 2016 (originally)

As to why he should be fired, quite simply his defenses have been bad.

Last year, we were #92 in the country in yards allowed per play. 

This year we are a more respectable #46. But we've had the benefit of playing a lot of bad offenses. We played the #124, #105, #97(t), #113, #71, #97(t), #100, #73 and #94 offenses in yards per play. 

Below is a comparison of how many yards per play we allowed for the year compared to what our opponents averaged for the same year. Not a perfect metric but it adjusts for several variables such as strength of offenses faced and pace of play. As you can see, last year's defense was within a stone's throw of the 2007 unit for the worst in the last 14 years (as far back as I could find stats). This year's seems better because of the bad offenses we faced but is really right in the ballpark with the vaunted Callahan defenses. The yards per play we allowed were all but identical to the rest of the defenses our opponents faced meaning we were barley above average.

YEAR - YPP - OYPP - DIFF
2003 - 4.3 - 5.15 -(0.85)

2004 - 5.0 - 4.91 - 0.09
2005 - 4.6 - 4.85 -(0.25)
2006 - 5.2 - 5.38 -(0.18)
2007 - 6.0 - 5.53 - 0.47

2008 - 5.4 - 5.41 -(0.01)
2009 - 3.9 - 5.21 -(1.31)
2010 - 4.5 - 5.29 -(0.79)
2011 - 5.2 - 5.51 -(0.31)
2012 - 5.3 - 5.48 -(0.18)
2013 - 4.9 - 5.36 -(0.46)
2014 - 5.2 - 5.53 -(0.33)

2015 - 5.7 - 5.28 - 0.42
2016 - 5.4 - 5.26 - 0.14

2017 - 6.3 - 5.37 - 0.93

2018 - 5.8 - 5.51 - 0.29

2019 - 5.6 - 5.33 - 0.27

2020 - 5.3 - 5.36 -(0.06)

2021 - 5.2 - 5.67 -(0.47)

2022 - 5.5 - 5.03 - 0.47

2023 - 4.4 - 5.01 -(0.61)

We were also poor in allowing 20+ yard runs (#83 in the country) and Red Zone defense (scoring % - #80).

 
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Mavric said:
You're too late to this party.  I fixed it years ago:

  • Eight team playoff
  • Five Power 5 Conference Champions (provided they are in the Top 12 of the final standings)
  • Highest-rated Group of Five Champion auto-qualifies if they are in the Top 12
  • Remaining teams chosen by committee
  • No more than two per conference

Now that the field is set, how does the playoff itself actually work and how does it mesh with the other bowls?

  • Those eight teams are locked into New Year's Six bowls on a rotating basis (as they do now with four)
  • Remaining bowl assignments can proceed as they currently do
  • Higher-seeded teams host the quarter final game two weeks after CCG weekend
  • The four teams that lose in the quarter finals will be matched up in two pre-determined New Year's Six bowl games (rotating)
  • The four teams that win in the quarter finals will move on to two other New Year's Six games as the semi-finals (rotating, as they do now)
  • Championship game one week later (as it is now)

Bowl structure preserved.  Conference championships matter.  Group of Five teams have a chance.  Doesn't extend the season (time-wise).  Bowl season begins and ends with a bang.

QED
Click to expand...


Mavric said:
If it goes to 16 teams, it should be a Pod system

  • Four 4-team Pods
  • Play your Pod every year (those three teams home-and-home every two years)
  • Play one other Pod every year (every other team every three years, home-and-home every six years)
  • "Protected" games each year to preserve rivalries while balancing pods
  • The team with the best record within each year's paired Pods goes to the CCG

At first I wanted to play half of a third Pod each year instead of the protected games (so you would play every team at least every-other year) but I think it would be too hard to keep all the rivalries so there would be too much push-back.  I'd have to dig a little deeper to see if you could get that to work within the Pods.

East Pod: Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

North Pod: Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern

West Pod: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

South Pod: Texas, Oklahoma, Purdue, Indiana

Protected - Scheduled in years where the Pods weren't already playing each other (red=always, black=if possible, trophy game not preserved)

Illinois - Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State

Indiana - Michigan State, 

Iowa - Minnesota, 

Maryland - 

Michigan - Ohio State, 

Michigan State - Indiana, Penn State, Rutgers

Minnesota - Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska

Nebraska -  Oklahoma, Minnesota

Northwestern - Illinois, 

Ohio State - Michigan, Illinois

Oklahoma - Nebraska, 

Penn State - Michigan State, Minnesota

Purdue - Illinois, 

Rutgers - Michigan State

Texas - 

Wisconsin - Minnesota, 

Trophy Games not guaranteed - Illinois/Ohio State, Minnesota/Penn State, Nebraska/Minnesota, Michigan State/Rutgers
Click to expand...

 
Mavric said:
Actually, I do kind of like the look of that.  Still has the issue of the Central pod looking week from a historical perspective.  But if you the flipped Iowa into the Central and made a couple other swaps with the lower teams the pods line up pretty well geographically (only Northwestern is a bit out of place - you could flop Illinois and Northwestern without changing much and the geography would line up a little better but I like my way better), balanced pretty well historically and might be a little better on the rivalries.....

East Pod: Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland

North Pod: Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana

Central Pod: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois

West Pod: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Kansas

Trophy Games - Green= in pod; Red=protected intra-pod (played every year), Black=if possible, trophy game not preserved)

Illinois - Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue

Indiana - Michigan State, Purdue

Iowa - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska

Kansas - 

Maryland - Penn State

Michigan - Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota

Michigan State - Michigan, Indiana, Penn State

Minnesota - Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska

Nebraska - Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Northwestern - Illinois

Ohio State - Penn State, Michigan, Illinois

Oklahoma - 

Penn State - Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota

Purdue - Indiana, Illinois

Rutgers - 

Wisconsin - Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska

It's kind of a coin flip to protect Nebraska/Wisconsin or Nebraska/Minnesota.  I went with Nebraska/Wisconsin for two reasons: it's the best way to even out the schedules (toughens Wisconsin's, less-brutal for Minnesota) and because I like that one better.

The only Trophy games not preserved yearly - they would still be played every three years - are Minnesota/Penn State (Governor's Vicotry Bell - only started when Penn St joined the B1G), Minnesota/Nebraska (fun but not nearly the historical significance of the others) and Illinois/Purdue (Purdue Cannon..... eh).
Click to expand...

 
Stadium capacity breakdown:

Mavric said:
Word is the athletic department is working on two major scenarios: 33% capacity and 50% capacity.  Or 100% but they already know how to do that.

I thought these were some interesting numbers - the breakdown of how the total seats are currently allocated:

General public season tickets: about 66,220 (roughly 76%)

Faculty/Staff tickets: 7,052 (8.23%)

Student tickets: 6,983 (8.12%)

Visiting team: 3,000 (3.51%)

Suite tickets: 2,528 (2.94%)

Band section: 516 (0.62%)
Click to expand...

 
High school wide receiver recruits career production for Nebraska:

2024:

Keelan Smith - redshirted

Dae'Vonn Hall - 0 receptions

Isaiah McMorris - 0 receptions

Quinn Clark - redshirted

Jacory Barney - 55 catches, 447 yards; 10 carries, 130 yards, 3 TDs

2023:

Jaidyn Doss - 2 catches, 20 yards

Malachi Coleman - 8 catches, 139 yards, 1 TD

Jaylen Lloyd - 19 catches, 492 yards, 3 TDs; 7 carries, 12 yards

D'Andre Barnes - 0 catches

Demitrius Bell - 0 catches

2022:

Victor Jones - 0 recpetions

Decoldest Crawford - 0 receptions

Janiran Bonner - 12 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD; 6 carries, 20 yards, 2 TDs

2021:

Shawn Hardy - 0 receptions

Latrell Neville - 0 recpetions

Kamonte Grimes - 0 receptions

2020:

Zavier Betts - 32 catches, 417 yards, 1 TD; 3 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD; 52 kick return yards

William Nixon - 1 catch, 5 yards

Alante Brown - 22 catches, 262 yards

2019:

Wan'Dale Robinson - 91 catches, 914 yards, 3 TDs; 134 carries, 580 yards, 4 TDs; 236 kick return yards

Jamie Nance - 0 receptions

Darien Chase - 1 catch, 13 yards

Demariyon Houston - 0 receptions

2018:

Justin McGriff - 0 receptions

Andre Hunt - 0 receptions

2017:

Jaevon McQuitty - 2 catches, 14 yards

Tyjon Lindsey - 15 catches, 98 yards

2016: 

Derrion Grim - 0 receptions

JD Spielman - 170 catches, 2,546 yards, 15 TDs; 216 punt return yards, 2 TDs; 838 kick return yards, 1 TD

2015: 

Stanley Morgan - 189 catches, 2747 yards, 22 TDs

Lavon Alston - 0 receptions

2014:

Jariah Tolbert - 0 receptions

Demornay Pierson-El - 100 catches, 1309 yards, 11 TDs; 26 carries, 67 yards; 904 punt return yards, 3 TDs; 147 kick return yards

Glenn Irons - 0 receptions

2013:

Kevin Gladney - 0 receptions

 
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