Member what Oregon State fans told us when Riley was hired?

Bo was a hot-head and a loudmouth, but he did have Eichorst totally pegged. Glad to have a stand-up guy like Moos in-place, hopefully he can right the ship. 

 
Redreign22 said:
I suggested Riley should have never been hired. 

I was also right when I predicted to Eichorst sticking with Riley would cost him his job. Making that move would have been bold and balzy and correct. We all know Eichorst was too soft for that.

Its all irrelevant at this point.
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What do you mean Eichorst stuck with Riley? He didn't even have a chance to fire him. When do you think he should have fired Riley?

After the first year?

After 9-4 2016?

After NIU?

What cost SE his job was Bounds and Green finding out how SE conducted his coaching search, or lack of search. ADs can have bad hires and get more chances if they aren't incompetent. 

 
brophog said:
We've shown, in this thread and others, that time is not a factor in building a top tier program. We've had examples from eras dating back to the 70s showing that, if a program makes that jump, it's in a 3 year window, with the data showing a big jump specifically in year 2. Giving a new coach "more time" is in effect no different than giving the current coach "more time". 

What at it does do is increase the costs of firing a coach. 
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This is true of some coaches, at some schools, but hardly enough to be a mathematical certainty, or even a very reliable general trend. Some coaches slow burn their way there, or, more notably but not really included in the discussion when it's framed this way, a lot of coaches have a mirage season early only to be exposed later on.

Mark Dantonio's record in his first three seasons at MSU was only a little better than where Mike Riley's is about to be. Wasn't until year 4 that he turned the corner and made the jump.

Dabo Swinney, if you count his year as interim head coach (I do, since he coached over half the season), went 6-7 in year 3 and needed until year 4 to win a conference championship, but even then, only finished ranked #22.

Jim Harbaugh had back to back 10 win seasons in his first two years, and is having his worst season thus far in year 3.

Mike Leach didn't get WSU turned around until year 4.

It took Mike Gundy until year 4 to have a top 25 season, and until year 6 to have a top 10 or double digit win season. Year 7 for a conference title.

Art Briles didn't get Baylor to full potential until year 6.

 
Landlord said:
Mark Dantonio's record in his first three seasons at MSU was only a little better than where Mike Riley's is about to be. Wasn't until year 4 that he turned the corner and made the jump.

Dabo Swinney, if you count his year as interim head coach (I do, since he coached over half the season), went 6-7 in year 3 and needed until year 4 to win a conference championship, but even then, only finished ranked #22.

Jim Harbaugh had back to back 10 win seasons in his first two years, and is having his worst season thus far in year 3.

Mike Leach didn't get WSU turned around until year 4.

It took Mike Gundy until year 4 to have a top 25 season, and until year 6 to have a top 10 or double digit win season. Year 7 for a conference title.

Art Briles didn't get Baylor to full potential until year 6.
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Baylor, KSU...even WSU to a lesser degree....these types are notable exceptions. They are literally building a program from the trash. Yes, they all take that 5-6 years to get there. They are also not analogous to Nebraska's situation. 

Dantonio was Year 4, not a big stretch in this argument, but he made strides those first three years, not as much in wins but in performance. Riley didn't, when you look at the actual metrics. Riley didn't make the jump his second year, he merely underperformed his first year. You can actually make an argument his first year is his best year. When you look at the metrics, year 1 and 2 are very similar, but year 1 had those close losses. Would I have fired Dantonio after year 3? No. He was averaging +0.9 YPP difference, a good number, and better than you'd expect with his record. Riley is at -0.3 this year and at -0.1 last year. Dantonio therefore comes down to how big of a deal you think one year is in a coach that was showing improvement, and if you think he's built a top tier program. I don't think he's analogous to Riley, at any rate.

Dabo:  I don't even know why he's on the list. 3 years, 3.5 years, whatever. We are drawing at straws on this one. 

Jim Harbaugh is replacing 20000 NFL draft picks, and still has a top tier defense in yards and scoring. You really don't think Harbaugh has shown he's a guy that can take Michigan to the elite level? If you do, fine, I can certainly that, but I think he's more example than exception. Three years and so far his worst is .769. 

So far, I'd say Dantonio depends on how strict you want to set the parameters, Dabo and Harbaugh are not exceptions, and the remainder are not analogous to the situation we've described. Gundy is interesting though.

He's clearly not in a Baylor/KSU type scenario, after all Les Miles had that team to a decent level. Gundy did have them going good, though not consistently at year 4. My question is really then, does he qualify as a coach of a top tier program. That's specifically what we are looking at, not just a 9 win plateau type team (ie Pelini). What does it take to bust through that and get back to where we want to be. I'd argue to some degree that Dantonio doesn't fit this either, though not to the degree of Gundy. To me, Gundy is in that plateau and hasn't shown he can be that guy. Opinions may differ, though.

 
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You said "We've had examples from eras dating back to the 70s showing that, if a program makes that jump, it's in a 3 year window, with the data showing a big jump specifically in year 2. Giving a new coach "more time" is in effect no different than giving the current coach "more time"."

I gave you examples that prove this isn't a bankable fact in all scenarios. You then proceed to essentially agree with me and say, "yeah, these don't work towards what I said because they're unique situations."

??

 
Redreign22 said:
I was ran off this board for lobbying for Frost to replace Riley his entire first year. I even emailed all the brass at UNL. Posted my reply from Perlman. Some members came at me pretty hard for it. I didnt post for a year. I just stalked anonymously. ; )
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I think this was an easy one, dont pat yourself on the back too hard. Also, its pretty easy to predict doom and gloom.  

 
Landlord said:
You said "We've had examples from eras dating back to the 70s showing that, if a program makes that jump, it's in a 3 year window, with the data showing a big jump specifically in year 2. Giving a new coach "more time" is in effect no different than giving the current coach "more time"."

I gave you examples that prove this isn't a bankable fact in all scenarios. You then proceed to essentially agree with me and say, "yeah, these don't work towards what I said because they're unique situations."

??
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D'Antonio is not a good example of someone needing 4 years, because he came in and immediately improved Michigan State.  Sparty went 5-7, 5-6, and 4-8 the final 3 years under John L. Smith.  D'Antonio went 7-6 and 9-4 his first 2 seasons.  That's showing immediate improvement.  Yes, he went 6-7 in his 3rd year, so that was a step back, but he then followed with 2 straight 11 win seasons.  D'Antonio showed he was a good coach in his first 2 seasons by improving Sparty, so they were willing to give him a 4th year because his 3rd year was an outlier.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
D'Antonio is not a good example of someone needing 4 years, because he came in and immediately improved Michigan State.  Sparty went 5-7, 5-6, and 4-8 the final 3 years under John L. Smith.  D'Antonio went 7-6 and 9-4 his first 2 seasons.  That's showing immediate improvement.  Yes, he went 6-7 in his 3rd year, so that was a step back, but he then followed with 2 straight 11 win seasons.  D'Antonio showed he was a good coach in his first 2 seasons by improving Sparty, so they were willing to give him a 4th year because his 3rd year was an outlier.
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Correct, and MR is a sorry old coach, and was a sorry young coach, and a sorry middle aged coach. Why would we expect him to magically be great next year?

 
MichiganDad3 said:
Correct, and MR is a sorry old coach, and was a sorry young coach, and a sorry middle aged coach. Why would we expect him to magically be great next year?
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I don't know why Eichorst and fans expected Riley to become a much better coach at age 62, compared to the rest of his career, and he had been trending down his last 4-5 years at Oregon State.

 
Landlord said:
I gave you examples that prove this isn't a bankable fact in all scenarios. You then proceed to essentially agree with me and say, "yeah, these don't work towards what I said because they're unique situations
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I was referring to old conversations that were phrased around a Nebraska type scenario. Sorry for not being more clear. I hope this long post clarified that better.

 
skers83 said:
You may be right about Frost but Riley wasn't ready either.  
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I agree that Riley was not the right fit culturally.  I would never argue that point.  But like most Husker Fans, I thought I would give him a chance.  We dont want to be that school that hires and fires after a season and a half.  The road back to greatness is long.  We may even be jumping the gun on Frost now.  Remember, we dont just get Frost, we get his young staff too. Not all of them have experience in a Power 5 Conference. With that said, I think the culture of a coach is far more important than scheme.  We missed culture on the last few hires.  I think Moos gets it.  

 
boach_clack said:
Frost was not ready to be a head coach at UNL.  UCF was a good level for him.  
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I would rather be 3 years into Frosts rebuild at this point even with no experience as would you I imagine.

I can not to this day wrap my head around the thought process that brought Riley here. 

 
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