***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 11:26 PM



Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though.




CLARE MALONE
NOV. 3, 11:31 PM




Arizona is looking promising for Biden. I wrote a couple of months ago about why the state seems to have been trending more and more purple. Barry Goldwater might be spinning in his grave, but analysts I talked to there said the state was a lot more independent-minded and small-c conservative (as opposed to Republican) than we give it credit for.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mavric said:
Not sure what other states he is calling.  Would have to be Pennsylvania and Michigan or Wisconsin for Biden also?
Click to expand...




What I believe they are doing is going with their previous predictions and assuming that the Florida polling error does not extend to the rust belt. And I don't think anything in the current margins is telling them otherwise yet. There are definitely big Trump margins in 2 of those states but a lot of the high pop. Democrat counties and early votes have not been counted yet.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trump has a big lead in Michigan but there are still ~1.9MM more votes to count and Trump's lead is 280,000. Wayne County (Detroit) is 28% reported. Biden could potentially pick up 130,000 more votes from there if percentages hold, although we're getting to neighborhood levels there so I have no idea.

 
Mavric said:
Trump with a decent lead (of votes counted) in all three?
Click to expand...




He's up 4.5% in WI, 10.9% in MI, and 14.4% in PA.

The thing that makes this so different from prior elections is a lot of places in these 3 states are counting election day votes first and they favor Trump. It's not your normal election where you would expect the margins within a county to remain the same. Right now the biggest county in MI, Wayne County, is 55% Biden. Clinton won 67% of the vote there. So if Biden keeps his % at 55% then he is doing absolutely awful. Awful enough that at this point in time it seems unlikely that it's his final % there.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So if Iowa flips to Trump and Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and North Carolina (15) are undecided, it would be 

Biden - 244 - needs 26

Trump - 233 - needs 37

So Biden would need any two and Trump would need any three.  

If Wisconsin and North Carolina go Biden and Michigan and Pennsylvania go Trump, it's 269-269.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mavric said:
So if Iowa flips to Trump and Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and North Carolina (15) are undecided, it would be 

Biden - 244 - needs 26

Trump - 233 - needs 37

So Biden would need any two and Trump would need any three.  

If Wisconsin and North Carolina go Bidena and Michigan and Pennsylvania go Trump, it's 269-269.
Click to expand...


NE2...

 
Back
Top