***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

I'm not 100% sure but I think Trump has since deleted this tweet due to the typo:

 

We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!
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Yep he did.
 


So ignoring the spelling error, this is s#!t for democracy in this country and I wish people would have taken that more seriously.

 
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Nate Cohn, in New York 1m ago
Why did the Needle turn blue in Georgia? We got enough vote out of the Atlanta area to realize it was going to be really good for Biden. And there's a ton of vote left there.

NOV. 4, 12:51 AM
 
 
 
 


Here’s a bullish sign for Biden in Pennsylvania. I wouldn’t be surprised if rural counties wind up with margins similar to the ones they posted in 2016, but urban and suburban ones (like Dauphin) lurch leftward.




 
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They now have Biden with a 56% chance to win Georgia.

Nate Cohn, in New York 1m ago
Another reason the Needle has Biden edging ahead in Georgia: For a while, it was taking cues from trends in N.C. and Florida. Now we've seen enough vote in the Atlanta area.
 
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Percentage of early votes outstanding for Biden is what’s pushing mathematical models to overtake Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. I have seen the lead in Michigan shrink over the past hour. 

 
Moiraine said:
They now have Biden with a 56% chance to win Georgia.

Nate Cohn, in New York 1m ago
Another reason the Needle has Biden edging ahead in Georgia: For a while, it was taking cues from trends in N.C. and Florida. Now we've seen enough vote in the Atlanta area.
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Ya. I just calculated Fulton and DeKalb combined, and Biden has 76% of that vote with 395,000 more votes left. Even if he only wins 76% of those that's 300,000 more votes and 100,000 more for Trump. Biden is currently down 260,000 and this would bring the gap down to 60,000. I don't know how much % he'll gain though. Clinton won 74% there... Nate is implying the % will increase from 76%. That would be a pretty huge improvement.

 
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Fox News has called Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District for Biden, becoming the first network to do so. They’re also the only network to have called Arizona for Biden. Those two places have an important relationship because if Biden wins both Arizona and NE-02, he doesn’t need Pennsylvania (although he does need both Michigan and Wisconsin). The dynamics are very interesting for media-watcher types thinking about the editorial independence of Fox News’s Decision Desk. The Arizona call was pretty aggressive, but serves as a check against any attempt that Trump might make to claim victory tonight.
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NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 1:15 AM



We don’t have a projection for these states yet, but at this point, I’d rather be Biden in Pennsylvania and, as Geoffrey said earlier, Wisconsin.






 
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I’m going to bed! Hope to know final results when I wake up. Much closer than I thought and what the pollsters predicted. They could have eggs on their face and much explaining to do

 
TGHusker said:
I’m going to bed! Hope to know final results when I wake up. Much closer than I thought and what the pollsters predicted. They could have eggs on their face and much explaining to do
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Biden still has a chance to win 306-232. That's just being wrong about a couple states. It just so happens Florida is worth a lot of points. It's just as difficult to correctly predict a 4 point state as it is a 30 point state, but you get penalized a lot worse in the optics if you're wrong on the latter, especially if yokels don't pay attention to that detail.

That said Trump can still win too so we'll see.

 
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Right, Nate, but to reiterate what your earlier point, Biden’s win in NE-02 is big, opening up a number of paths for him. Winning NE-02 means he could win the presidency if he wins Arizona — which looks pretty good for Biden with roughly 80 percent of the vote in — and holds onto Michigan, which maybe his Minnesota win is a good sign for, as you said.
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Biden has a 64% chance to win Georgia now.

 
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