Mainly because Wisconsin has taken a step back on defense this year. They are not in Michigan's class defensively anymore. They are #50 in run defense and looked quite poor against 3-3 BYU at home. They are still #25 in passing D, but haven't played anyone who really throws the ball. They are #126 in sacks and #69 in third down defense. All of those things scream that this team isn't an unbeatable top 10/15 team.
I know Hornibrook has graded ok this season, but he isn't a world beater if you can make him throw in obvious situations. He has never impressed me.
Will Wisconsin win? Most likely yes. Will it be 56-10? I don't see it without a +5 Badger turnover margin. It's sure possible that NU turns it over 6 times, but this feels like a close game to me.
So....they are ahead of us in every statistical category except 3 (1 barely) and that is proof we'll keep it close? Don't get me wrong, I too think it will be much closer than many expect but I'm only basing that on a gut feeling that one of these days things are going to begin to click and that we'll stop shooting ourselves in the foot. Unfortunately there are no stats or proof to back up my baseless optimism. But I do think some things begin to fall in place for the Huskers. It may not be the victory we so desperately need but just a few less crucial penalties and not getting destroyed by turnovers could make this a much closer game than most expect.
So, Texas seems to be turning the corner and taking it to the Sooners. We are far from turning any corners but beating Wisconsin can at least give this team some confidence to believe they can actually get there one day...