Pessimist Perspective

I don't worry so much as place kickers as I do punters.  I think Lightborn was much improved last year while someone called it a sh---t show.  I don't recall that.  I am much more concerned about the return game which has been horrible for almost a decade.   No excuses for not fielding and returning punts and of course the new kick off rules will likely create some wild action on the 'routine' kick offs.   We may see lots more onsides and or squibs and so on.  Even muffed 'fair catches' and bad decisions of this type.  Of course, Frost may have some trickerly of his own and hopefully will view special teams as the 1/3rd of the game plan they rightfully are and not just an after thought.

I think special teams could be a great difference maker for this team and could help us pull a couple upsets over the big boys.  But many very wise and astute football fans are telling me we will be lucky to win 5 IF we avoid many injuries.  Worse if we don't.  Many I talk to think the defense will be almost as bad as last year.   Frost can't score points if he doesn't have the ball.

So beinga pessimist is NOT the exception you may be thinking.  I remain very optimistic but I am always that way this time of year.   

 
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The Dude said:
Really?  That's weird.
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Field goals are optional usually while punts are mostly mandatory.  Not weird at all.  Most freshmen are pretty accurate place kickers.  Most punters start as freshmen very shaky.  Field goal kickers have their heads down and hardly even see the play or opposing players before their done kicking.  Punters have to field a long snap that can be wet, cold, wind blown, way off target, etc and then deal with on rushers.  Most field goal kicks are gone before the rush gets past the line of scrimmage.   Bad snaps are not the kickers responsibility nor do the kickers typically have to concern themselves with having to run or attempt to throw in event of a bad snap, etc.  

 
brophog said:
I don't know how many of UCF's games you've seen the past two years, but Frost needs no excuse to go for it on 4th down. 
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Wasn't trying to say he needed an excuse to go for it on 4th down. Obviously he's and aggressive minded coach. But when you could potentially take 3 points in a close game he may opt to go for it knowing he has a freshman kicker. Or he could go for it because that's just how he coaches. 

 
If Frost likes to go for two instead of a PAT kick for one, then it makes sense he'd be more inclined to go on 4 down for the first down instead of attempt a long field goal for just 3.  Punting inside the 5 yard line can be more valuable in some games than even making a field goal kick for beyond 40 yards.  Long field kicks are risky as they tend to get blocked or even returned in a real long try and field position is usally lost in missed ones or even made ones as opposed to putting the oppoent backed up to the goal line.   

8 points with a TD and 2 pt conversion, sounds pretty good if you do that about 65% of the time.   If you have an average yardage gain per offensive snap of say 5 yards, your odds of getting 3 for the points after play, why not go for it.   Frost's offense lends itself in my view to a pretty above average PAT success rate with it's ability to spread the defense and make them defend sideline to sideline and the entire end zone.  A QB who can 'ad lib' and make something out of nothing can improve your odds of making the 2 or converting that 4 down try.   Scoring say, an average of 7.25 points per touhdown instead of 7.0 seems to make sense.   I think statistics would say, on average, teams successfully make a PAT kick about 95%  which means a TD is actually worth about 9.95 pts.   If you are a well above average offense, you should be the average of all teams on the 2 point try.   Why not go for.   If the oppoent jumps off sides or commits any penalty, you get half the distance, making the odds of a QB sneak go up to probably 80%.   

My high school team never had a real good place kicker so we probably went for 2 - 80% of the time and maybe successfully coverted 1/2.   We were probably a below average offense.

Field goals were all but never tried except in do or die, last second cases to win or tie from beyond the 15 yard line.  Frost believes his offense is way above average so he wants TDs not field goals.

 
4skers89 said:
I figured there might be a problem with speed also. Frost is recruiting some track guys so wasn’t sure we currently have that.
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The only WR of the top two in the depth chart that may not be a speed guy would be Reimers — not sure how fast he is. I wonder if Walters will want to place him at TE some. But he is a big target regardless whether he is at WR or TE. 

 
Pedro G said:
The only WR of the top two in the depth chart that may not be a speed guy would be Reimers — not sure how fast he is. I wonder if Walters will want to place him at TE some. But he is a big target regardless whether he is at WR or TE. 
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Reimers could be a Todd Peterson guy. Solid hands, effective route runner. I'll gladly take that. As for TE, I think Stoll and Allen will be good. Stoll runs with a purpose like a full back. I like Allen's acceleration.

 
there's a reason our over under for regular season wins is 6.5. we have a ton of question marks. luckily we will get a peak at what to expect in 36 hours. 

if martinez stays healthy, i think we win 7+ regular season games. 

 
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BoSolich said:
there's a reason our over under for regular season wins is 6.5. we have a ton of question marks. luckily we will get a peak at what to expect in 36 hours. 

if martinez stays healthy, i think we win 7+ regular season games. i think it's realistic we are 7-3 heading into the final 2 regular season games.
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We will be 8-2 at that point.  :koolaid2:

 
Pedro G said:
The only WR of the top two in the depth chart that may not be a speed guy would be Reimers — not sure how fast he is. I wonder if Walters will want to place him at TE some. But he is a big target regardless whether he is at WR or TE. 
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Stanley isn't exactly a burner either.  Might be why he and Reimers are in the same spot on the depth chart.

 
Caliborn72 said:
Regarding WRs, a well respected poster on HM mentioned that there has some frustrations with the lack of size at WR. Sounds like we’ve had a little bit of RZ struggles. We are really good here, obviously, but that’s been one criticism I’ve heard and it makes some sense as well.
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I've thought about this a bit as well and it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.  On the positive side, NU has absolute giants at the TE spot with Stoll being the shortest at *only* 6'4 and I'm confident NU can create some mismatches in the RZ with those dudes.

 
My pessimistic view stems more from other teams we are playing than what Nebraska brings to the table.  I believe the team will be night and day better from last year in terms of playing with passion and aggression.  I think they will be much better coached.  I think the talent on the team will finally shine through as many spots.  

We have a tough schedule and there is no getting around that.  We will be better, but I don't know if it is enough to get us past 7 wins.  Watching the Purdue/Northwestern game, made me have doubt.  They were both better than I thought they would be.  Not perfect by any means, but they both played solid sound aggressive football.  That type of play can take you far.  

That is all 

 
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NUinID said:
We have a tough schedule and there is no getting around that.  We will be better, but I don't know if it is enough to get us past 7 wins.  Watching the Purdue/Northwestern game, made me have doubt.  They were both better than I thought they would be.  Not perfect by any means, but they both played solid sound aggressive football.  That type of play can take you far.  
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The Big Ten West will be fun the next few years. We just need to keep recruiting well and we will be fine. Frost got a huge compliment last week that went unnoticed, and it was from Josh Heupel. Couldn't stop raving about how good the culture was down there, and how efficient the players practiced and how it was them helping him get everything set up. When you can leave a program and your teachings remain, that's high praise. So, we know he can do it, and if these other programs keep up then more power to them.

 
brophog said:
The Big Ten West will be fun the next few years. We just need to keep recruiting well and we will be fine. Frost got a huge compliment last week that went unnoticed, and it was from Josh Heupel. Couldn't stop raving about how good the culture was down there, and how efficient the players practiced and how it was them helping him get everything set up. When you can leave a program and your teachings remain, that's high praise. So, we know he can do it, and if these other programs keep up then more power to them.
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Oh, no I think the future looks very bright.  I am just specifically talking about this year.  It will be a meat grinder of a year.  It will be fun but I just don't know what will happen.  I don't think we will know after Akron either.  I think they will crush them on adrenaline alone.  

 
NUinID said:
Oh, no I think the future looks very bright.  I am just specifically talking about this year.  It will be a meat grinder of a year.  It will be fun but I just don't know what will happen. 
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When it comes to the Big Ten West I'm not as worried about this year as I am the future, because we know teams like Purdue are still being held back by QB play. All three teams last night showed me that's their bottleneck. Until that position changes, I'm not that concerned.

 
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