*Redux CFP analysis and prediction*

Since Louisville went ahead and ruined my original prediction, I'd say the rest remains intact.

1-Bama

2-Clemson

3-Ohio State

4th spot is open for a few teams:

-Washington. Had to win out and beat Colorado (most likely) in title game. A trip to Wazzu may prove to be too much though, a loss keeps them out of title game.

-Penn State. Has to beat Rutgets, MSU and likely Wiscy in title game. Their 2 losses weren't "quality losses", probably ends up hurting them.

-Wisconsin. Has to beat Purdue and Minny, then likely Penn State in title game. Both their losses are "quality". Could be just enough.

-Michigan. If they manage to knock off tOSU they get to Indy to face Wiscy, a win there gives them the spot over Washington hands down.

-Oklahoma. This is a stretch, but if Washington fails to win the Pac 12 and Nebraska fell into a Big Ten title by sheer luck, then MAYBE the Sooners would be the 4th spot at 10-2.

-Western Michigan. If the Sooners have a snowballs chance....

-Tennessee or Florida. If they can beat Bama in the title game....LMAO, TOTES J/K!

 
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junior4949 said:
Nebfanatic said:
1995 Redux said:
It doesn't matter who wins the Big Ten, unless Michigan or Ohio State wins it, our champion won't get in. An at large will. The champion will have to settl for a conference championship because they lost 2 games instead of Ohio State's 1.

It's the same concept I'm pushing. You're saying the better teams should get in over the team that happened to win the conference because that team lost when it couldn't afford to. If Penn State would have either beatne Pitt or Michigan, this whole discussion is moot.

And I would be perfectly fine with requiring a certain ranking for conference champions to get in with 2 losses or more. But the thing is, even if they have 2 losses, they will probably be ranked pretty high if they win their league. 2012 Wisconsin was such an anomoly that it likely won't be repeated ever again.
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Do not agree. If Wisconsin wins the Big 10 championship, especially if they won over Michigan, they would clearly have a better resume than Louisville. Even if they just beat a top 10 PSU they would have a much better resume than Louisville. Especially considering what's happening right now (Louisville Houston). Let's face it Wisconsin has alot of great wins and 2 "good losses" add a conference title they are in.
The argument with OSU is a little bit muddier if PSU is the East representative, but that won't matter if Washington slips up at any point. Wisconsin will have a better resume than the Huskies or OU as will the Buckeyes, I could see them both getting in at that point
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What great wins has Wisconsin had? Their overtime win at home against us? If we lose to Iowa which is highly likely if Armstrong can't go, we end the season unranked. Was it their win against LSU? The LSU that fired their coach who is playing better ball without him but still might very well end the season unranked? When we look back at the 2016 season, it is likely Wisconsin will have beat no team ranked at season's end during the regular season. Wisconsin is a good team, but they're not a great team.

I would give the nod to Penn State having a better resume than Wisconsin. They've beat the #2 team in the country. The early loss to Pitt is also not looking so bad considering Pitt just beat Clemson. The only way I see the B1G getting two teams in is if Penn State wins the B1G and Ohio State gets the at large.
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Well first of all, the LSU victory is still a great win for Wisky. Beating us will turn out to be a good win. And if we are talking end of the road, if Wisconsin wins the BIG that will include a top 10 win. So your PSU argument is a little invalid because of course my entire post was based on the idea Wisconsin wins the BIG, which at that point would leave PSU out. If PSU wins the BIG they would have a shot but their losses aren't good and they have 2 maybe 3 quality wins (OSU, minnesota, BIG title game). Wisconsin has better losses and a way better non con win and maybe 1 more quality conference opponent I just think their resume is a little better even though PSU does hold the victory over OSU. In the end it will be decided on the field one way or another so we will see soon enough.
Edit:your post inferred who would have a better resume assuming a BIG win, I was a little off on my counter argument, strawmanning a little I apologize

 
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1995 Redux said:
Since Louisville went ahead and ruined my original prediction, I'd say the rest remains intact.

1-Bama

2-Clemson

3-Ohio State

4th spot is open for a few teams:

-Washington. Had to win out and beat Colorado (most likely) in title game. A trip to Wazzu may prove to be too much though, a loss keeps them out of title game.

-Penn State. Has to beat Rutgets, MSU and likely Wiscy in title game. Their 2 losses weren't "quality losses", probably ends up hurting them.

-Wisconsin. Has to beat Purdue and Minny, then likely Penn State in title game. Both their losses are "quality". Could be just enough.

-Michigan. If they manage to knock off tOSU they get to Indy to face Wiscy, a win there gives them the spot over Washington hands down.

-Oklahoma. This is a stretch, but if Washington fails to win the Pac 12 and Nebraska fell into a Big Ten title by sheer luck, then MAYBE the Sooners would be the 4th spot at 10-2.

-Western Michigan. If the Sooners have a snowballs chance....

-Tennessee or Florida. If they can beat Bama in the title game....LMAO, TOTES J/K!
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I'll give you #1 and #2, but Ohio State if a far cry from being a lock at #3. They have to beat Michigan. If they don't, there's not a snowballs chance they make the playoff. If Michigan beats Ohio State, they more than likely win the B1G and are the B1G's only entry. If Ohio State wins, they probably are in no matter what. I think Penn State has to then win the B1G in order for the B1G to get two teams in the playoff.

There's a lot of football left to be played. If we learned anything from last nights game with Louisville and Houston, it's the fact that teams simply don't show up to play each and every week. There's never been a two loss team in the playoff. I'm guessing this year that will change.

 
I'm basing this prediction off my original prediction in which Ohio State beats Michigan, given that they will be at the Shoe and down a QB, it's a safe prediction. They do that, they are in.

 
I think you're right about Ohio State and Michigan. So, does a two loss team make the playoff this year? If so, which two loss team has the best chance?

 
junior4949 said:
I think you're right about Ohio State and Michigan. So, does a two loss team make the playoff this year? If so, which two loss team has the best chance?
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I don't see any way around it with Louisville falling. Washington is the best bet for that not to happen, but their next 2-3 games are going to be rough. They are literally the only PAC team that could get in.

Wiscy or PSU is in a good position if Washington stumbles. Oklahoma would have to do something incredible to sway the committee. And if Florida could sell their soul to Satan and beat LSU, FSU and Bama in the title game...

 
Original prediction

Washington State vs Colorado

Wisconsin vs Penn State

Alabama vs Florida

Clemson vs VaTech

Oklahoma wins Big12

Title games now

Washington vs Colorado

Wisconsin vs Penn State

Alabama vs Florida

Clemson vs VaTech

Oklahoma vs OkieLite

Feeling pretty good about my original prediction except for the fact Louisville imploded. My prediction for final 4 as it stands now:

1-Alabama

2-Clemson

3-Ohio State

4-Washington

5-Penn State

6-Michigan

7-Oklahoma

8-Wisonsin

Alabama is a lock, Florida is trash and just lost to FSU. Maybe the Gators come out motivated and only lose by 10 or so, but Bama wins this game easy.

Clemson just smoked SCAR and now must handle VaTech to finish 12-1/Win the ACC/make the playoff. VaTech has been sporadic this season while Clemson has been inconsistent at times. Dabo will have them motivated to get back to the playoff and have another crack at taking down Bama. Clemson wins by 20+.

Some feel Ohio State isn't a lock at this point. I would argue that they have the most impressive strength of schedule in the country. They currently have played at #8 Oklahoma and won, at #7 Wisconsin and won, at #6 Penn State and lost close, hosted #16 Nebraska and won huge, and hosted #3 Michigan and won. They finished 11-1 and ranked #2, there is no way in my opinion that they could possibly fall further than 4th regardless of how the championship games play out.

Washington is my wild card. I had them pegged to lose to Wazzu, but they took care of business and will now go against the much improved Buffaloes. I think Washington is the much better team and will do enough to get the win, congrats to Chris Petersen.

It sounds silly to say, but the outcome of the Big Ten game may not matter unless either Washington or Clemson loses their title game match. I think the winner gets to #5 but is left out. Is it right? No, it's not. I think conference championships should matter when discussing playoff teams and letting Ohio State in over them seems unfair but that's how it's structured right now. Maybe if Wisconsin wins it solidifies the Buckeyes since they won the head to head, maybe Penn State winning gets them just enough to get in over Washington. But I don't think you can drop Ohio State to 5th for beating #3 then not playing an extra game. I'm really interested to see how it shakes out.

 
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1995 Redux said:
Who else thinks Ohio State is a lock? Who thinks they are out unless Clemson or Washington loses.
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personally I think someone has to lose. I just think the committee will have a hard time putting a team in when another team owns the head to head and has a conference title
 
1995 Redux said:
How can they justify dropping the #2 team to #5 or lower after they just beat #3?
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They did something similar in year 1 of the playoff. How can they justify leaving out a conference champ for someone that conference champ beat? Just because they are #2 now and beat #3 does not mean a team can't jump them after conference championship week.
There are arguments both ways for sure and I'm not sure what the right answer is but we will see soon enough.

 
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