This may come as a surprise to some but I actually think we'll do better the rest of the season than most. Not win the rest. But I think we win the next two. I think we'll have enough figured out by the time we get there to have a good shot at Northwestern. Purdue might be a shootout again. And Riley is usually good for one win that he shouldn't get and I don't think beating Wisconsin, Minnesota or Iowa will be THAT big of a hill to climb. Not that we win all those games. But I wouldn't be shocked if we still get to 6 or even 7 wins.
It's not that we don't have talent to compete with any of those teams. We just have to use it competently. I think we'll be closer to that going forward.
But I don't know where that leaves us in regard to your question. If we beat Wisconsin or end the season with a win over Iowa but are still basically .500 would that be enough?
Personally, barring a miracle, I'd make the change this year. Next year is going to be tough for whoever is here. I'd rather take my lumps breaking in a new plan that watching things die slowly for 12 more months.