Tangent Thread - December 2015 Edition

It's not like this is a player issue. Riley teams have been plagued by turnovers and poor turnover margin throughout his career.
Is this true? Link? (I'd like to read more about it.) What is it about Riley's teams that causes all these turnovers?
Yes, in often 60th or worse in picks thrown. Including almost dead last in 2011 at 119th (1.7 picks per game). Best ranking I saw in the category going back a few years was in the high 30s.
Google team rankings if you want more stats.

 
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There was plenty of room for improvement in Bill Callahan's offense. And in Bo Pelini's offense. And now in Mike Riley's.

But it is utter madness to ignore the huge, historic drop off in the Nebraska defense during most of this stretch.

The defense went out and earned the right to be criticized. No idea why some here take much more comfort blaming the offense.

(I'll save you the time: I understand how offensive turnovers and stalled drives make it tougher on a defense. But that excuses next to nothing in terms of the actual problem)
Do you think that could have anything to do with the offensive systems moving away from the ground oriented game?

Frankly, due to the reality of recruiting to NU, NU should deploy a "Navy" strategy where NU minimizes possessions by the other team. A lot of that is about offensive ball control. TOP is a decent stat for that, but I wish I had time to go back and look at the detailed numbers from the 80s and 90s. I would bet a lot of money that NU's opponents averaged less possessions per game against NU than most other teams during those years.

Strategically, philosophically, however you want to frame it, NU won't consistently compete with and beat the top 10/20 programs trying to out recruit them and running a "match up based" system. We have to have a system that out schemes opponents, not one that relies on "my guy is better than your guy," if we are going to stand a chance. Going toe-to-toe is a receipt for average to below average results.

We have the pure talent on the roster to be a 10+ win program if we have the right coach.
You use words that people who talk about football use, but your logic can't survive a single sentence.

So: We have the pure talent right now, but we can't possibly compete in head to head talent because Nebraska can't recruit pure talent, so we have to rely on a scheme that keeps our offense on the field because we've given up hope that our defense can hold up its end of the bargain. And they shouldn't have to. That's the offense's job. The right coach would understand all this.

Right?

Listen, I know you're busy and who has time to look up ancient TOP stats these days?

So let's speed things up with TOP this year under the wretched stain of Mike Riley and fling-it-all-over-the-place Langsdorf.

Nebraska is 26th in Time of Possession in the NCAA, averaging 32 minutes a game, or two minutes behind #1 Stanford.

That means this year's Nebraska offense had better time of possession than Clemson, Florida, Iowa, LSU, Oklahoma, run-happy Georgia Tech and Houston, TCU, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State and lingering near the very bottom of TOP, Oregon at #111, Baylor at #115 and North Carolina at #126.

TOP doesn't appear to prove much in terms of rushing or defense or winning, because there are a lot of moving parts to the game of football.

A better metric has traditionally been turnover margin, an area where Nebraska truly sucks, at #119, a suckage that extends to our former coaching staff.

You gotta be careful with subjects you don't know much about and information that doesn't fit your agenda.

I know you won't disappoint me.

HAHAHAHA! You're focusing on TOP, when he said it was a decent stat, but he was really focusing on number of possessions. Did you not read this sentence? " I would bet a lot of money that NU's opponents averaged less possessions per game against NU than most other teams during those years."

As fast as teams scored against Banker's porous D, TOP will be a bit deceptive if you're really looking for number of possessions. And turnover margin has very little to do with number of possessions by either team. Not sure why you suggested that one???

I think your post reveals a new variation on Skitt's law.
You're right. It's kinda funny.

If the issue is keeping your defense off the field -- and it was -- Time of Possession is the metric, not number of possessions, a figure which could reflect a horrible 3 & Out offense.

A high number of possessions could indicate a successful big play offense like Baylor, TCU and Oregon. If a team scores quickly and often, the other team's # of possessions goes up, too.

A grind-it-out rushing offense might generate fewer possessions and better time of possession. Which works great, as long as you have a defense that doesn't give the points right back within seconds.

See how this works?

So why did I suggest considering Turnover Margin?

Because everyone who understands football considers Turnover Margin.

It's a real problem for Nebraska.

We're not a bad running team. We're not a bad passing team. We're better than most on third down conversions, total offense and scoring offense.

We are categorically a bad turnover team -- both giving up and generating -- one of the worst in the nation.

The only category where Nebraska ranks worse than turnover ratio is Pass Defense, where we're #121.

For reasons unclear to me, our historically bad defense is the offense's fault, and we can't talk about it.

Interceptions would go down if we threw the ball fewer times. No doubt about that. They would also go down if our particular QB threw fewer interceptions per attempt. It's really not too much to ask.

We could run the ball more, as we did with Abdullah, Cross and Martinez, but if that produces more fumbles (it does) we'd have to agree it's not the fault of running the ball more often. It's a discipline and execution issue.

Now just for fun take yourself back to the mid-90s. Remember those awesome Nebraska offenses? Now imagine them turning the game over to a 2011 - 2015 Nebraska defense. Do you think we'd still be celebrating those three National Championships?

 
Google team rankings if you want more stats.
Yeah, I've heard of Google. I just figured if you had actually looked it up you'd know right where to find it.
http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?doWhat=archive&sportCode=MFB
TURNOVER MARGIN (the stats start at 2012 in the link you provided)

2012

NU #105

OSU #27

2011

NU #67

OSU #100

2010

NU #62

OSU #35

2009

NU #33

OSU #31


2008

NU #107

OSU #58

Granted, Oregon State's turnover margin is nothing to write home about. Little better than average, I'd say. But out of the last five years Oregon State was better than Nebraska four out of five times in turnover margin. Am I reading this wrong, or is the data saying pretty much the opposite of your statement above? Or maybe it's because you cherry picked one stat (interceptions, but not fumbles) in one year to support your statement. Is that what it is, cm husker?

 
Google team rankings if you want more stats.
Yeah, I've heard of Google. I just figured if you had actually looked it up you'd know right where to find it.
http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?doWhat=archive&sportCode=MFB
TURNOVER MARGIN (the stats start at 2012 in the link you provided)

2012

NU #105

OSU #27

2011

NU #67

OSU #100

2010

NU #62

OSU #35

2009

NU #33

OSU #31


2008

NU #107

OSU #58

Granted, Oregon State's turnover margin is nothing to write home about. Little better than average, I'd say. But out of the last five years Oregon State was better than Nebraska four out of five times in turnover margin. Am I reading this wrong, or is the data saying pretty much the opposite of your statement above? Or maybe it's because you cherry picked one stat (interceptions, but not fumbles) in one year to support your statement. Is that what it is, cm husker?
Can you point out where CM said that Pelini was NOT also plagued by poor turnover margins?

 
Google team rankings if you want more stats.
Yeah, I've heard of Google. I just figured if you had actually looked it up you'd know right where to find it.
http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?doWhat=archive&sportCode=MFB
TURNOVER MARGIN (the stats start at 2012 in the link you provided)

2012

NU #105

OSU #27

2011

NU #67

OSU #100

2010

NU #62

OSU #35

2009

NU #33

OSU #31


2008

NU #107

OSU #58

Granted, Oregon State's turnover margin is nothing to write home about. Little better than average, I'd say. But out of the last five years Oregon State was better than Nebraska four out of five times in turnover margin. Am I reading this wrong, or is the data saying pretty much the opposite of your statement above? Or maybe it's because you cherry picked one stat (interceptions, but not fumbles) in one year to support your statement. Is that what it is, cm husker?
Can you point out where CM said that Pelini was NOT also plagued by poor turnover margins?
No. But I can point out where I said Riley is slightly better than average. Right up there. The bolded part.

Nice deflection, btw. Way to avoid the question.
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We lose Jano and are going to take a huge class. He's rated as the best FB in the nation. Maybe we show him what we have done with Jano and offer him at FB.
Don't let him see the Iowa film.
We did use our FB a lot throughout the season. Not very many teams utilize a them as much as we did this year. A FB is like a glorified Guard that gets to carry the ball every once in awhile. Just bc they arent carrying the ball doesnt mean they arent being used. But, I do agree Jano should have got the ball a couple times during the Iowa game.

 
Google team rankings if you want more stats.
Yeah, I've heard of Google. I just figured if you had actually looked it up you'd know right where to find it.
http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?doWhat=archive&sportCode=MFB
Granted, Oregon State's turnover margin is nothing to write home about. Little better than average, I'd say. But out of the last five years Oregon State was better than Nebraska four out of five times in turnover margin. Am I reading this wrong, or is the data saying pretty much the opposite of your statement above? Or maybe it's because you cherry picked one stat (interceptions, but not fumbles) in one year to support your statement. Is that what it is, cm husker?

This has nothing to do with Pelini. But his teams won 9+ games a season despite those margins (I have theories on why).

No single stat paints a whole picture, but as I said, Riley's teams have been plagued by turnovers.

This year is not the product of a "mule"; it's part of a long pattern of first year QBs struggling mightly in Riley's system.

 
Another issue is that Oregon State was often going three and out and other similarly short possessions.

One stat we could pull is the number of turnovers per snap, particularly rushing snap, because we know they weren't a run focused team.

 
No single stat paints a whole picture, but as I said, Riley's teams have been plagued by turnovers.

This year is not the product of a "mule"; it's part of a long pattern of first year QBs struggling mightly in Riley's system.
"Plagued" by turnovers? Okay, I only looked at the last five years for Oregon State, but was it much worse before that? Because they averaged 50th in the nation over that five year span. Sure, that's nothing to brag about. But it's right around the 40th percentile. So I guess that means that 60% of the teams in the nation were "plagued" by turnovers.

 
I think the biggest issue with Read, is that it's literally his only job, and for $500k, we wanted VT level special teams units. Bo's special teams units were farmed out to different assistant, and were actually pretty good most of his tenure, except the disastrous 2013 season where we could barely catch a punt. IIRC, they were in Phil Steele's top 10 ST units 5 of 7 seasons (one of the few places to track that stuff), and we routinely had good kicking and coverage units. The return units were decent to good most years too. 2015 wasn't that bad, other than our kick return unit, which was non-existent until Stanly Morgan got the nod. That said, Brown got better, and we did get a bit better in the return units over the year.
That is what bothers me the most. I think we are getting very little bang for the buck with him. How is he as a recruiter?
Was going to bring this up. He appears to basically be a non-factor in recruiting - other than recruiting kickers, punters and long-snappers. Kickers are people too but that means he's probably only recruiting one guy per year (on average).

Can't remember which prominent new-hire head coach said this in the last week but he said he hires an OC, a DC and an OL coach. For the rest of the assistants, if you can't recruit, you don't work for him. Seems like a pretty good strategy to me.
That was Will Muschamp, who just got hired at South Carolina.
Damn, Bo might never make it back to D1, he does not have a single commit yet and it is mid December. Some things never change.

 
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