Tanner Lee's Progression

BigRedBuster said:
That has way more to do with the team around him and the play calling than him.
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I haven't done a detailed look of Lee's effectiveness in the red zone.  I think his number do take a big dip, but he does need help from his receivers in the red zone.  DPE dropped a sure TD pass on a quick read and pass by Lee against Purdue.

 
BigRedBuster said:
That has way more to do with the team around him and the play calling than him.
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I'm sure that's the easy way to explain it.  Not sure if that's the right way or not.

Last series of downs on each possession against Purdue:

From the Purdue 18 - run for no gain, incomplete pass, complete pass for 2 yards (holding penalty), run for 1, FG

From the NU 28 - run for -1, false start, pass for 7, sacked for -2, punt

From the NU 17 - incomplete pass, run for 4, incomplete pass

From the NU 36 - incomplete pass, incomplete pass, pass for 9, punt

From the Purdue 4 - run for 0, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 48 - pass for 4, run for 4 (holding penalty), pass for 8, incomplete pass

From the Purdue 25 - run for 1, pass for 6, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 9 - run for 4, run for 3, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 27 - passing TD

From the NU 48 - run for 1, incomplete pass, sack, punt

From the Purdue 19 - run for 0, run for 4, incomplete pass, incomplete pass

From the Purdue 19 - pass for 6, incomplete pass, TD pass

So Lee's stats on the drives where we didn't score a TD were 6/17 (35.3%) for 36 yards, 2.1 yards per attempt, 2 sacks for -14 yards, 22 yards net on 19 passing plays.  So I think it's fair to say he contributed his share to the struggles.

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
I'd like to see what Lee could do with just one more go-to receiver, and let's make him 6' 2" or taller while we're at it.

We've got some speedy and exciting receivers, but I think we miss rangier WRs like Alonzo Moore and Brandon Riley.
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...and putting this receiver out onto the field instead of a tight end. I'd like to see him throwing to three wideouts and a slot receiver with no tight end in more of a spread formation with Ozigbo blocking once in a while.

 
I'm surprised NO Lee's injuries (so far).  Pounded almost every play.

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Landlord said:
He's obviously getting more comfortable in the offense, but personally, I'm one who didn't think his play earlier in the season was as bad as it was made out to be. His poor numbers/performance were much more attributed to unlucky tips, a pourous O-Line and receivers who A) can't get separation and B) have been dropping a lot of balls, more than to him playing poorly, imo.
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BigRedBuster said:
That has way more to do with the team around him and the play calling than him.
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Did Taylor Martinez and/or Tommy Armstrong get this great benefit of the doubt? 

 
Mavric said:
I'm sure that's the easy way to explain it.  Not sure if that's the right way or not.

Last series of downs on each possession against Purdue:

From the Purdue 18 - run for no gain, incomplete pass, complete pass for 2 yards (holding penalty), run for 1, FG

From the NU 28 - run for -1, false start, pass for 7, sacked for -2, punt

From the NU 17 - incomplete pass, run for 4, incomplete pass

From the NU 36 - incomplete pass, incomplete pass, pass for 9, punt

From the Purdue 4 - run for 0, incomplete pass, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 48 - pass for 4, run for 4 (holding penalty), pass for 8, incomplete pass

From the Purdue 25 - run for 1, pass for 6, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 9 - run for 4, run for 3, incomplete pass, FG

From the Purdue 27 - passing TD

From the NU 48 - run for 1, incomplete pass, sack, punt

From the Purdue 19 - run for 0, run for 4, incomplete pass, incomplete pass

From the Purdue 19 - pass for 6, incomplete pass, TD pass

So Lee's stats on the drives where we didn't score a TD were 6/17 (35.3%) for 36 yards, 2.1 yards per attempt, 2 sacks for -14 yards, 22 yards net on 19 passing plays.  So I think it's fair to say he contributed his share to the struggles.
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To determine that, I would need to see from these drives, how many of those were drops, how often was he rushed because of bad pass pro, how many of those sacs were because of bad pass pro, how many of those bad running plays were because of totally pathetic run blocking, how often was the play call idiotic for the situation......all of that plays into if the offense is successful which can make a good QB look bad.

 
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QMany said:
Did Taylor Martinez and/or Tommy Armstrong get this great benefit of the doubt? 
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Many times, yes.  But, let me clarify, the first 4 games were horrible for Lee and he should take all criticism that is appropriate for those games.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
To determine that, I would need to see from these drives, how many of those were drops, how often was he rushed because of bad pass pro, how many of those sacs were because of bad pass pro, how many of those bad running plays were because of totally pathetic run blocking......all of that plays into if the offense is successful which can make a good QB look bad.
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I would have thought you would already had to have done that to make such a definitive statement such as "That has way more to do with the team around him and the play calling than him"

 
Mavric said:
I would have thought you would already had to have done that to make such a definitive statement such as "That has way more to do with the team around him and the play calling than him"
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That is what I based my first comments on.  

I'm going off of memory and various conversations (including with you, for instance) about other bad areas on the team such as bad line play or bad play calling that doesn't set the team up for success.  Those issues are not on the shoulders of Lee.  He plays within the system and the play that is given to him.  

Fact is, he has improved quite a bit in the last 4 games from the first 4.  It has been shown over and over again that (for instance) the line play is absolutely pathetic which has caused hurried passes and sacks.  

I didn't know it was an unknown how bad other areas of the team have been playing and how questionable the play calling has been.

 
QMany said:
Did Taylor Martinez and/or Tommy Armstrong get this great benefit of the doubt? 
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It's a fair question. 

Here's my answer: Armstrong constantly struggled with decision making; not throwing the ball away when he should have, throwing into double coverage when he shouldn't have, etc. He did that for four seasons.  I think he did get the benefit of the doubt to a large extent on this forum towards the end of last season with regards to how bad the line was pass blocking so much of the time. But the decision making thing is on the quarterback.

Martinez's completion rate his Junior/Senior year was actually surprisingly decent for a not-so-highly-recruited mobile quarterback. During the first 4-5 games of this year, it looked like Lee wasn't even going to come close to Martinez's Junior year numbers. Now of course Lee has started to really turn things around in good ways.

 
Lumping those 4 games together might not tell the entire story.

ILLINOIS: 17/24 (71%), 246 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 94.9 QBR.

tOSU: 23/38, 303 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 50.1 QBR.

But in the first half, versus tOSU's starters: 12/24 (50%), 96 yards, only 4 First Downs, 1 Turnover on Downs, 0 points.

WISCONSIN: 16/32 (50%), 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (Red Zone pick-six), 45.5 QBR.

PURDUE: 32/50 (64%), 431 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 65.0 QBR.

Before the last 3 possessions: 17/30 (57%), 257 yards, 0 TD.

Thankfully, Purdue appeared to play Prevent the last 3 possessions:  15/20 (75%), 174 yards, 2 TD. Great comeback win!

 
I was very impressed by a couple of his passes to Hoppes, especially the one where he was facemasked.  What I was most impressed with was his leadership towards DPE.  DPE made a critical drop, I think in the red zone.  Lee made a point to reassure him, multiple times, then came right back to him the next series.  DPE eventually made an incredible catch on the sideline with a defender draped all over him.  

 
QMany said:
Lumping those 4 games together might not tell the entire story.

ILLINOIS: 17/24 (71%), 246 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 94.9 QBR.

tOSU: 23/38, 303 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 50.1 QBR.

But in the first half, versus tOSU's starters: 12/24 (50%), 96 yards, only 4 First Downs, 1 Turnover on Downs, 0 points.

WISCONSIN: 16/32 (50%), 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (Red Zone pick-six), 45.5 QBR.

PURDUE: 32/50 (64%), 431 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 65.0 QBR.

Before the last 3 possessions: 17/30 (57%), 257 yards, 0 TD.

Thankfully, Purdue appeared to play Prevent the last 3 possessions:  15/20 (75%), 174 yards, 2 TD. Great comeback win!
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I don't mean this to dog on Tanner Lee; I certainly hope he is actually progressing and continues.

TOTAL DEFENSE:

Illinois 71st

tOSU 12th

Wisconsin 5th

Purdue 56th

Northwestern 62nd

Minnesota 20th

Penn State 19th

Iowa 45th

With the defenses we will face, hopefully he continues to play well against the poorer defenses but much better against the good defenses.

 
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It will be interesting to see how teams adjust to NU's lack of ability to run the ball.  I know Northwestern's strength on D is to stop the run, and their secondary is pretty weak.  I am not sure about Minnesota & Iowa.

If I were a DC, I would sit back in coverage and focus on stopping the pass, mix up coverages and blitz packages, and almost dare NU to run the ball.

 
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