The 2024 Election —What did we learn?
- Thread starter TGHusker
- Start date
DefenderAO
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Dr. Strangelove
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I think it's a simple as:
COVID led to extremely high voter participation levels. That is not really possible to replicate.
When Trump is on the ballot, low propensity, low information voters showed up to vote for Trump (and did not vote for anything else down the ballot). Democrats don't really have a similar cult of personality around their candidate and their low propensity voters didn't show up to vote for a candidate they didn't recognize.
One thing Republicans need to figure out moving forward is how to keep their coalition engaged. It's become pretty clear that MAGA works for Trump, but imitating MAGA does not work for down ballot candidates. Republicans need to find a way to keep those voters in their tent.
DefenderAO
New member
The high end morality of the Left. Abstain from sex for four years because they can't kill the kids after a night out on the town. A huge win on multiple fronts.
https://notthebee.com/article/trumps-win-has-gotten-liberal-women-to-remain-chaste-until-they-find-men-who-align-with-their-values-and-commit-to-them?
https://notthebee.com/article/trumps-win-has-gotten-liberal-women-to-remain-chaste-until-they-find-men-who-align-with-their-values-and-commit-to-them?
Interesting perspective and thanks for the feedback vs the others who just claim we’re talking fraud. It seems impotent to discuss for Dems to figure out why they increased so many votes in 2020 and then lost just as many in 2024 where as Republicans increased quite a lot in 2020 and kept the vast majority of that increase in 2024.
for The Dem side of the discussion…you mentioned not replicating covid numbers. Republicans were able to only lose 1.5 million and probably under 1 million voters from 2020-2024 whereas Dems will lose 11-12 million!! How can covid explain a loss for one group but not the other?
Rememeber that Trump ran in 2016 also and didn’t approach his 2020 or 2024 numbers.
For the Republicans and low propensity voters. In 2020, Trump was under the corresponding Senator vote count as often as he we was ahead of it. Haven’t checked 2024 yet. So in 2020, low propensity voters were voting as much down ballot as not down ballot.
Agree about Republicans figure out how to keep and continue to grow the Hispanic vote share along with the first time male vote share. They would also be wise to continue to do outreach to the AA population that is willing to listen. And they shouldn’t overreach their agenda.
PasstheDamnBallGuy
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I'm curious but it will take a while to untangle all of this as as I'm not a Democrat it's not my job to figure out where they failed. If you really are wondering about the election anyway the total vote count is really irrelevant. Just need to know the margin difference in the states that flipped. From exit polling it seems the lack of messaging from Dems on the economy killed them. They lost in younger people because the amount of right-wing podcasters appealing to young kids is pretty high. We can talk about how many of those people are directly paid by Russia but that's a different story. A lot of young people were soured on her supporting genocide also and abstained. I would be interested in seeing key demographic changes in total numbers for her vs Biden. I could say people were not excited for her but I don't really think people were excited for Biden either. I remember the common sentiment was we had to eat the s#!t sandwich. In general right wing voters have a mich stronger base of loyal followers that will vote for anyone with an R and don't really care if they were on the Epstein flight logs many times. Democrats have an "issue" where they are a centrist party labeled as extreme left but people on the left know they aren't actually that and don't really get too excited to vote for them.I don’t think 2020 was stolen…..Biden won fair and square…..Trump lost….Votes weren’t just made up in some vote counting machine……votes weren’t switched from trump to Joe…we agree.…but Kamala got 12 to 14 million less votes when Democracy was at stake and no one seems curious as to why. They didn’t go to Trump as he lost 1 million votes from 2020 (one was me)
Why such a historically drastic change from 2020? Are you not curious as to what caused that when your side truly believed Democracy was a stake.
Dr. Strangelove
New member
This is going to be hard to answer I think. Personally, I think that this is multi-faceted:
1. COVID led to record high voter turnout that was going to be hard to replicate for either party.
2. For low propensity Democrats, they were probably unenthusiastic about their candidate. Joe Biden was extremely unpopular with the Democratic base when he dropped out, and they replaced him with somebody who consolidated that support within the party but still not all of it. Having a President that is clearly in decline due to his age, followed by a secondary candidate that was not selected through a primary - and not getting much needed name recognition - depressed internal Democratic turnout. Republicans did not have this issue. For the record, I think any candidate they picked would've suffered the same as Harris did. As annoying as it is to have a year long nominating process, it certainly helps get your name in the news cycle that reaches all Americans eventually, no matter how much they don't pay attention.
3. Inflation brought in new low propensity voters for the opposition party. This happened everywhere in the world; Trump probably ended up with several million votes from the people who did not participate in 2020. Thus, inflation acted much like COVID in driving voter turnout to one party single handedly while having the opposite effect on the other party.
For 2024 so far, Trump managed to win all 7 swing states but will end up only winning a single Senate seat in them. Similarly, despite causing a MASSIVE swing in New Jersey, for example, Republicans aren't really going to do damage there down ballot. I actually don't think they'll flip a single Republican held seat there despite the largest gains in that state in a generation. Similar events unfolded in other states. In Nevada, Trump will win but Democrats will retain all their house seats. This was the case in pretty much all the states.
Thus, millions of voters in those states showed up and voted for Trump but didn't vote down the ballot.
DevoHusker
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DevoHusker
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I've read that Lara Trump, as RNC co-chair, deployed 200k pollwatchers and over 500 lawyers to the 7 or 8 key States this year. Maybe that was the key, I dunno
funhusker
Active member
C’mon….maybe it’s just possible that people absolutely were fired up to oust Trump in 2020. Somehow we forgot how awful he was. Time heals all wounds.
That level of cheating would have easily been caught by the people that looked into it.
DevoHusker
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DefenderAO
New member
Right, because Trump was definitely the less lucid one between him and Biden.
:laughpound
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I firmly believe that the drastic change in voting laws across the country during COVID and was not in place for 2024 that allowed mail ballots to be “pushed” to all registered voters instead of “asked for” by the registered voter which was the normal way of elections previously in those states led to a large amount of quasi legal ballot harvesting and lots of people probably still don’t realize they actually voted. Dems did a great job of collecting those ballots from people who had absolutely no intention of voting and got them dropped in ballot boxes or put in the mail. And it’s why Trumps numbers don’t drop much this election from last.
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