The Democrat Utopia

I know it might seem counter-intuitive, and the lessons of the 2024 election might seem clear, but the traveling Sanders/AOC tent show is actually test driving the kind of narrative Democrats will need to reclaim the voters lost to the GOP's populist strategy. Especially as the GOP is hellbent on showing how little it cares about hard-working Americans once in office, including handing-off their jobs and retirement chests to the richest man on Earth. There's a lot in play right now that doesn't include drag queens or the stupidest protest signs at Columbia. 

Muzzling passionate voters sounds like a really bad idea in March of 2025. Armchair centrism isn't going to carry the day. Activism might. And better, more engaging candidates who will --- as always --- cover enough spectrum that there actually is a middle. 




As I alluded to somewhere else, I dont think the necessity of the moment isn't so much progressive/centrist, but populism vs. elitism. Just so happens the progressives are the only ones around Washington with any tiny sliver of populist effort. Something like single payer healthcare isn't and shouldn't be considered progressive at all when the majority of folks support it and it's an idea successfully proliferated all over the developed world, but it's certainly nothing more than a pipe dream as long as we're glad to keep ourselves in the hands of the entrenched status quo.

 
I feel like you are the voice of reason with most of this stuff and it is always interesting to see people argue with you on certain topics when it is pretty clear what the end result would be


It's not clear what the end result would be. If it was, nobody would follow the losing course. I know you love simplicity, Teach, but this is one of many cases where it's not simple. 10 years ago all the voices of reason were laughing at Donald Trump. Zero chance. 

Walter Mondale. George Dukakis. Al Gore. John Kerry. Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden. Kamala Harris. Chosen for their safe centrism, but not exactly a murderers row. Bill Clinton won the 1992 battle of the centrists, having ceded 20% of the vote to spoiler Ross Perot. Barack Obama may have been the most centrist of all, but he won on charisma that all but Clinton lacked, and Republicans portrayed him as a downright Marxist. . 

Every one of them were branded as liberal crazies. As was every down ticket Democrat. 

To my ear, what Democrats want most from their national party is a spine and a willingness to fight. They've already demonstrated their willingness to compromise --- once the moderates most defining trait -- but that's a big reason why they've lost the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and even the respect of their own base. 

 
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It's not clear what the end result would be. If it was, nobody would follow the losing course. I know you love simplicity, Teach, but this is one of many cases where it's not simple. 10 years ago all the voices of reason were laughing at Donald Trump. Zero chance. 

Walter Mondale. George Dukakis. Al Gore. John Kerry. Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden. Kamala Harris. Chosen for their safe centrism, but not exactly a murderers row. Bill Clinton won the 1992 battle of the centrists, having ceded 20% of the vote to spoiler Ross Perot. Barack Obama may have been the most centrist of all, but he won on charisma that all but Clinton lacked, and Republicans portrayed him as a downright Marxist. . 

Every one of them were branded as liberal crazies. As was every down ticket Democrat. 

To my ear, what Democrats want most from their national party is a spine and a willingness to fight. They've already demonstrated their willingness to compromise --- once the moderates most defining trait -- but that's a big reason why they've lost the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and even the respect of their own base. 
Maybe!  But people following the losing side all the time.  Just because they HOPE they get the outcome they want, doesn't mean there is actually a chance it will happen.

 
Guess I'll throw in my contrarian hat into the ring and say I agree with @Dr. Strangelove with some caveats. Those of you disagreeing with him are making very good points, too, for what it's worth, and I agree with the spirit of much of what you are saying, but I'm not for a wholesale rejection of Strangelove's argument here.

First of all, we need to acknowledge that winning individual congressional seats and winning presidential elections are two WILDLY different things. Strangelove is dispassionately, rationally looking at the available data and he's right. Bernie-style candidates often get crushed in general elections whereas more moderate candidates in purple districts (or red ones) either run a much closer margin or win. Perhaps more congressional districts around America are ready to embrace a new, unapologetic progressive brand of politics, but the available data do not support that.

I thought the Senate race last election in Nebraska was very interesting. Obviously the Dems punted and tacitly supported Osborn, but by declaring himself an independent with progressive policies, he ran a hell of a lot closer than any Dem has against any R statewide in some time. Maybe this is the way, but we need other test cases, because I've seen it fail in similar states recently (Alaska 2020 comes to mind).

That said, I would think Strangelove, myself and others would also argue someone like Schumer has failed and needs to go. We're not out here defending ineffectual, impotent centrism just because. We're arguing that moderates and centrists are going to be necessary for any successful coalition but that the key is the party as a whole needs to actually get s#!t done that improves peoples' lives or people are rightly going to continue ignoring them at best and despising them at worst.

Before Biden, Dems had largely lost the ability to improve peoples' actual lives. Then they got their poop in a scoop and did some things that actually did some, and they're so damn stupid they can't message it effectively and America quickly knifed them in the back for all their troubles. Can't say I don't understand why.

I'm rambling a bit but that rolls me into the last thought I want to throw out there for now - the messaging wars. We should not forget how badly Dems are losing this. This is where the Bernie/AOC wing of the party beats the hell out of the moderate wing. But as Strangelove said, it's largely preaching to the choir to a lot of voters who are likely already leaning toward us. The much larger and more pervasive right-wing bulls#!t machine is going to be all over progressive policies and candidates like flies on s#!t. And America has decidedly taken the plunge and become brainwashed by this crap, so any progressive candidate is gonna start well behind the starting line.

Keep in mind, most of this blurb is specifically about coalition building to form a durable governing majority, not necessarily who makes the best presidential candidate.

 
I thought the Senate race last election in Nebraska was very interesting. Obviously the Dems punted and tacitly supported Osborn, but by declaring himself an independent with progressive policies, he ran a hell of a lot closer than any Dem has against any R statewide in some time. Maybe this is the way, but we need other test cases, because I've seen it fail in similar states recently (Alaska 2020 comes to mind).
Dan Osborn over performed expectations by more than any candidate in any election cycle since 2016. That's the kind of candidate that should be ran in deep red states with highly educated populations - like Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Maine and Alaska, especially in blue years like 2026. 

I think that @Guy Chamberlin and @Ratt Mhule are making good points, but I also try to follow the data and the post election analysis by David Shor does a good job of discussing it.


Voters wanted a more moderate candidate and they saw Trump as being that way. This was largely because of ads from when Harris ran for President in 2020 when she took extremely unpopular positions in the Democratic Primary. 

I also agree with Matthew Yglesias when he writes that Democrats need a combative moderate

 
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Voters wanted a more moderate candidate and they saw Trump as being that way. This was largely because of ads from when Harris ran for President in 2020 when she took extremely unpopular positions in the Democratic Primary
Kamala was rated the most liberal Senator.   She had a record outside of the insane 2020 positions she held during the primary.   She was not a centrist on the national stage 

 
That said, I would think Strangelove, myself and others would also argue someone like Schumer has failed and needs to go. We're not out here defending ineffectual, impotent centrism just because. We're arguing that moderates and centrists are going to be necessary for any successful coalition but that the key is the party as a whole needs to actually get s#!t done that improves peoples' lives or people are rightly going to continue ignoring them at best and despising them at worst.


Good thoughts and I'm of a similar mind. I'm not "progressives or bust!" by any stretch. My larger imagination is that any healthy system or organization needs a diverse coalition of voices that create tension. We need compelling voices pulling us along forward, as well as ones that are slow and hesitant to do away with things that have seemed to work pretty well, as well as ones that build bridges and translate amongst the others. Right now, there is no sane conservative voice, a massive overabundance of weak, entrenched, bought & paid for democrats only marginally left of Reagan, and very few populists and/or progressives that the DNC has only begrudgingly accepted and been more than happy to sideline and throw under the bus.

There's no one-size-fits-all strategy that makes any sense, but hoping that the power players leave the AOC's and Bernie's of the world out in the cold is certainly just as much a losing one if the end goal is actual progress moreso than just acquiring power.

Dan Osborn over performed expectations by more than any candidate in any election cycle since 2016. That's the kind of candidate that should be ran in deep red states with highly educated populations - like Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Maine and Alaska, especially in blue years like 2026. 

...
 

Voters wanted a more moderate candidate and they saw Trump as being that way. This was largely because of ads from when Harris ran for President in 2020 when she took extremely unpopular positions in the Democratic Primary. 

I also agree with Matthew Yglesias when he writes that Democrats need a combative moderate


Somewhere we're finding common ground, but I'd say this in response.

Bernie and AOC aren't attractive because of their progressive agenda as much as they're attractive because they're the only ones around who seem to actually have any amount of balls at all (at least to me personally). Democrats will inevitably be painted as extreme left regardless of their actual policy alignment as long as they continue to be feckless and their strategy in regards to 'conviction' is to not have any conviction at all.

Just as one example amongst plenty, take Kamala's campaign and the attack ads and jabs from Trump about how she supports taxpayers paying for trans prisoners to transition. Her camp did the best they could being silent, dancing around it, or responding with vague and/or empathetic platitudes, and it made her look weak and more left-wing instead of anything even remotely in the lane of, "Look, first of all, only two people ever have gotten gender affirming surgery in prison and both went through several year long legal battles to end there. We can disagree on this, but the Supreme Court decided that prisons have to give necessary medical care to prisoners, and to not do so is unconstitutional, and federal and state courts like in California have decided that gender affirming care is included in that. I agree with and am glad for those decisions, and if you disagree with me, fine, but whether or not trans people get gender affirming care isn't up to me or to Trump, it's up to the courts, and the courts have made that decision. Just like Trump's administration also accepted the legal mandate to provide gender care in prisons when he was President, so will mine, because I respect and follow the law."

Bill Clinton, the pragmatic centrist and expert level triangulator that he was, probably said it best in 2002. "When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have someone strong and wrong than weak and right". Where's the echoes of the trenchant strong and wrong proverb in the DNC? Even Gavin Newsom is backslapping with the likes of Charlie Kirk these days.

 
A lot of good ideas here. Just a few more thoughts:

I wish we could elevate an FDR type to guide us out of the darkness. But I worry that decades of browbeating public education (now they’re acting on it) and proliferation of the right-wing info ecosystem, replete with all manner of alternate facts, has too fully cooked our brains and poisoned the well against such a type of leader. Who knows, maybe Pritzker will prove me wrong; he’d be the modern analogue there, imo. Newsom’s approach is certainly interesting, and I’m sure it’s appealing to some people, but them people definitely ain’t me. 
 

The politics of decades long control of Congress  have changed, too. The Civil Rights era realignment hurt us. Now we’ve got to work twice as hard to produce a small margin in either chamber, and the systemic benefits Republicans enjoy vis-a-vis gerrymandering and how the Senate works are depressing. 
 

I am merely making the case that eschewing any type of candidate is bad given the fundamentals of creating a majority. Moderates/centrists are going to be needed in a lot of battleground districts. Again, a lot of voters in those places don’t agree with us and view things through the Fox News lens.

But regardless, results are KEY. Doing good things people like and then successfully promoting them is the secret sauce. Achieving power and then failing to wield it to the benefit of the people is a failure. That’s why we all hate Washington; too many are there just to benefit themselves and not those who sent them there. Deep blue areas need to clean their act up and start putting up wins for the average person. Places like California and New York have been poorly governed for a long time and that’s why they’ve become punchlines for the cons. We’ve got to show we can govern effectively again to begin to stem the tide on any of the nonsense we’re seeing these days.

 
Good thoughts and I'm of a similar mind. I'm not "progressives or bust!" by any stretch. My larger imagination is that any healthy system or organization needs a diverse coalition of voices that create tension. We need compelling voices pulling us along forward, as well as ones that are slow and hesitant to do away with things that have seemed to work pretty well, as well as ones that build bridges and translate amongst the others. Right now, there is no sane conservative voice, a massive overabundance of weak, entrenched, bought & paid for democrats only marginally left of Reagan, and very few populists and/or progressives that the DNC has only begrudgingly accepted and been more than happy to sideline and throw under the bus.

There's no one-size-fits-all strategy that makes any sense, but hoping that the power players leave the AOC's and Bernie's of the world out in the cold is certainly just as much a losing one if the end goal is actual progress moreso than just acquiring power.

Somewhere we're finding common ground, but I'd say this in response.

Bernie and AOC aren't attractive because of their progressive agenda as much as they're attractive because they're the only ones around who seem to actually have any amount of balls at all (at least to me personally). Democrats will inevitably be painted as extreme left regardless of their actual policy alignment as long as they continue to be feckless and their strategy in regards to 'conviction' is to not have any conviction at all.

Just as one example amongst plenty, take Kamala's campaign and the attack ads and jabs from Trump about how she supports taxpayers paying for trans prisoners to transition. Her camp did the best they could being silent, dancing around it, or responding with vague and/or empathetic platitudes, and it made her look weak and more left-wing instead of anything even remotely in the lane of, "Look, first of all, only two people ever have gotten gender affirming surgery in prison and both went through several year long legal battles to end there. We can disagree on this, but the Supreme Court decided that prisons have to give necessary medical care to prisoners, and to not do so is unconstitutional, and federal and state courts like in California have decided that gender affirming care is included in that. I agree with and am glad for those decisions, and if you disagree with me, fine, but whether or not trans people get gender affirming care isn't up to me or to Trump, it's up to the courts, and the courts have made that decision. Just like Trump's administration also accepted the legal mandate to provide gender care in prisons when he was President, so will mine, because I respect and follow the law."

Bill Clinton, the pragmatic centrist and expert level triangulator that he was, probably said it best in 2002. "When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have someone strong and wrong than weak and right". Where's the echoes of the trenchant strong and wrong proverb in the DNC? Even Gavin Newsom is backslapping with the likes of Charlie Kirk these days.
I pointed this out about two weeks ago or so and it was a brilliant move by Gavin.

Harris was scared to go on Joe Rogan for no reason at all, he is the least "scary" host ever, he is not a "Gotcha" type host.

Kirk is probably more of a "gotcha" host but Gavin was great on his show/podcast or whatever it is called.  It was a very smart move and my guess is Gavin will go on Rogan too, if he has not already gone on that show.  

 
Sure, Presidential elections are very different from state and local elections. That's why it's hard to draw firm conclusions, or label the winning ideology. A rookie progressive like AOC can win in the Bronx against a take-your-constituency-for-granted Dem stalwart because that was the vibe in the Bronx. She wouldn't have won in another District.

In a way, you can't argue with the primaries, where Democrats are given a choice and their votes tell the story. The handful of progressives we're talking about won in deep blue districts. We can say it's all in the policies and ideologies they promoted, but it's equally likely they faced a flawed and compromised opponent in both the primary and general. Reading the tea leaves is never easy. 

Collectively, moderate Dems definitely win more elections than Leftist Dems. Nothing surprising there. But is it surprising how many Far Right candidates -- the ones with Christmas photos of their family cradling assault rifles -- have beaten back traditional GOP conservatives? It definitely surprised and depressed me. Even then, you have to be careful about what lessons to take away from the Tea Party takeover. 

Now we've developed the prototypical Dream Democrat:  "Hi. I'm a military veteran. I did two tours in Iraq and can field strip and clean an AR-15 in thirty seconds. I returned to start a successful business and marry my childhood sweetheart. I'm a dutiful parent of three beautiful children, I volunteer at my church, and I love my country. And......I'm a Democrat." 

These candidates lose, too. Because while they appear to check all the boxes, the Republican opponent simply needs to remind voters this person is a Democrat, who by definition must declare allegiance to Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Karl Marx. 

I've read many of the election postmortems and every one of them makes perfect sense. Although if you add them up, it simply means everyone is to blame. 

Perhaps the theory that makes the most sense to me is the one that's the most squishy and least measurable. Candidates and political movements have a vibe. It's the gut feeling stuff some folks won't say out loud or tell a pollster. Policies and ideologies are tucked in there somewhere, but you're still voting for a person. You either get a good vibe from them or not. Democrats haven't been good at reading the room or generating the vibe. Charisma carries the day, for better or worse. 

 
Harris was scared to go on Joe Rogan for no reason at all, he is the least "scary" host ever, he is not a "Gotcha" type host.


Much was made about Harris' being a cool as a cucumber prosecutor and Senate cross-examiner. And I think she did fine in the Presidential debates.

What I didn't know is that both Harris and her handlers were very skittish about one-on-one interviews, a paranoia that tended to make her stiff and over-prepared, and likely prompted her to skip out on valuable opportunities like Rogan. Per my previous post, she couldn't master her own vibe. 

 
Much was made about Harris' being a cool as a cucumber prosecutor and Senate cross-examiner. And I think she did fine in the Presidential debates.

What I didn't know is that both Harris and her handlers were very skittish about one-on-one interviews, a paranoia that tended to make her stiff and over-prepared, and likely prompted her to skip out on valuable opportunities like Rogan. Per my previous post, she couldn't master her own vibe. 
I think she would have done fine on Rogan, I don't really watch a lot of his stuff but I saw the one with Billy Corrigan (Smashing Pumpkins) and Billy is a total d!(k but the interview was fine.  

I think they made a mistake not having her go on his show.  But maybe she was nervous or her team was worried.  

 
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