Collectives have shifted funds from spending in recruiting to the portal, where the odds of landing a proven commodity are significantly higher.
“A top-10 caliber quarterback in the transfer portal is worth seven figures. But a high school quarterback isn’t worth anything because they’re not going to start,” a collective leader told On3. “Same thing with any player. You can have a stud defensive end or wide receiver – it doesn’t make sense to spend money on someone who is going to be a non-impact player. It’s just bad management. That’s why in professional sports, rookies make so much less than free agents. You want a guaranteed veteran more than taking a flier on a rookie.
“The problem is everyone’s like, ‘Oh great, I can go recruit this high school kid and he can make a big difference.’ What’s the bust rate in the NFL draft in the first round? Probably a one-third chance the guy is going to work out. So why do you think you’re going to be able to recognize somebody as a high school recruit and then go dump all this money.”
Roster management has also emerged as a key component of a school’s NIL infrastructure. While lucrative packages can attract talent, it’s also used to retain top players. In a market where the motto is buyers beware, the safest option is to preserve talent rather than risk a recruiting bust.
Programs often tell recruits not to hold their decisions until December because the portal quickly takes precedence.
“What I feel like, it’s kind of been a shift from – at first it was the recruiting front because the incoming guys caught the first wave,” an SEC player personnel staffer involved in NIL told On3. “They were the ones to be able to capitalize on the era when everyone was trying to figure out what was going on. It seems to me there’s been a shift from the early stage to the retain portion. More people are seeing it’s about maintaining your roster and keeping your guys another year, rather than the young fellas who aren’t a proven commodity.”