The thing I still don't get...

I don't care all that much about the stats on close games lost in years 1-3. I knew by early 2019 that this was going to be a 4-5 year rebuild because of how badly Riley had tanked the program.

So, I'm looking at this year. If we had won 2 out of 3 against Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue and were 5-4 instead of 3-6, fans probably wouldn't be extremely upset.

So I'm looking at those three games. Why did we lose those games by one score?

Well, in my opinion it's because Frost just didn't get the run game going. And specifically against Minnesota & Purdue he kept trying to have Martinez throw the ball when it was obvious he was "off."

Our defense definitely played well enough in those three games. But offense was terrible. Martinez being off was a common thread in all three of those games and I also think Frost & Lubick did a poor job of adjusting once it was obvious he was off.

 
Undone said:
Well, in my opinion it's because Frost just didn't get the run game going. And specifically against Minnesota & Purdue he kept trying to have Martinez throw the ball when it was obvious he was "off."
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In this week's Pick 6 Podcast (OWH writers) Sam was harping on Frost for going away from the run-game way too early, and not being patient with his offense.  This has not just been an issue this year, it's been an issue during his entire tenure.  This is especially concerning when Frost's teams lose a lead.  As soon as Frost gets behind, even if it's only one score, he gets pass-happy.  These thoughts even trickle down to the players.  After the Purdue game, Noulli was asked why they didn't run the ball more in the 2nd half against Purdue, and he responded "well, once we fell behind, it was hard to run the ball".  NU was ahead or down one score for 20 minutes of the 3rd quarter.  There was no reason to abandon the run game because NU was "behind".

EDIT:  Sam was also mad at Frost for going for deep crossing routes against Minnesota on the 1st down with 5 minutes left, in which Adrian took the safety.  There was 5 minutes left in the game, so that's plenty of time to take the ball down the field.  In fact, the goal is to score a TD, while leaving as little time for Minny, as possible.  Yet, Frost went for the big-pass, which required the o-line to protect for a long time, and with a QB who was hobbled and known for making poor decisions.

 
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ColoradoHusk said:
In this week's Pick 6 Podcast (OWH writers) Sam was harping on Frost for going away from the run-game way too early, and not being patient with his offense.  This has not just been an issue this year, it's been an issue during his entire tenure.  This is especially concerning when Frost's teams lose a lead.  As soon as Frost gets behind, even if it's only one score, he gets pass-happy.  These thoughts even trickle down to the players.  Nouri was asked why they didn't run the ball more in the 2nd half against Purdue, and he responded "well, once we fell behind, it was hard to run the ball".  NU was ahead or down one score for 20 minutes of the 3rd quarter.  There was no reason to abandon the run game because NU was "behind".
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In the past we had to give up on the run because we were being boatraced and had to throw to have any kind of chance. 

This is the first year we've had a defense that could allow for a run game, all game against anyone we played. We still, however, do not have an offensive line for that.

 
@ColoradoHusk: I think Frost might be a classic overthinker. Bo had some of these tendencies also.

We've seen it with some of his strategies inside the 5 yard line in his career here so far, and we've seen it in terms of abandoning things that work instead of doing them until the other team stops it.

I just don't understand why we looked so committed to the run against Illinois but then didn't look as committed to it against Minnesota & Purdue.

It might be fair to say that losing Prochazka contributed to this...but then I have to come down pretty hard on Greg Austin for not having players ready to go that can run block.

Born N Bled Red said:
This is the first year we've had a defense that could allow for a run game, all game against anyone we played. We still, however, do not have an offensive line for that.
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Yes, really good analysis here IMO.

 
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Born N Bled Red said:
In the past we had to give up on the run because we were being boatraced and had to throw to have any kind of chance. 

This is the first year we've had a defense that could allow for a run game, all game against anyone we played. We still, however, do not have an offensive line for that.
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That's not true.  Let's look at some of the losses in recent years.

2018 - losses to Troy and Northwestern when NU was within 1 score or leading entering the 4th quarter

2019 - losses to Colorado, Indiana, Purdue, and Iowa when NU was within 1 score entering the 4th quarter 

2020 - losses to Northwestern and Minnesota when NU was within 1 score entering the 4th quarter

 
ColoradoHusk said:
That's not true.  Let's look at some of the losses in recent years.

2018 - losses to Troy and Northwestern when NU was within 1 score or leading entering the 4th quarter

2019 - losses to Colorado, Indiana, Purdue, and Iowa when NU was within 1 score entering the 4th quarter 

2020 - losses to Northwestern and Minnesota when NU was within 1 score entering the 4th quarter
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The only run game working in any of those, at least from my recollection was the QB run.

 
Born N Bled Red said:
The only run game working in any of those, at least from my recollection was the QB run.
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You keep changing the narrative.  I understand the run game was a struggle early in Frost's tenure, especially with the running backs.  However, the simple fact is that Frost goes away from the run game when it's not always needed.  Frost is a former QB.  He wants to pass the ball.

 
Born N Bled Red said:
Because it didn't work at Illinois, and the coaches want to keep their jobs. 

Run game already failed them in a tight game. Why wouldn't they try something else.
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Yes, it's confusing.

Martinez's amazing broken pass play scramble for the 75 yard TD against Illinois completely skewed the rushing stats in that game. If you took away that play then we would have been at 85 yards rushing on the day and 2.23 yards per carry. It was 160 yards on the day and 4.10 yards per carry with that play.

Then against Minnesota & Purdue, we were at 4.38 and 4.48 YPC respectively, but we ran it fewer times and also at a lower ratio of run/pass plays.

So my conclusion there is that Frost & his offensive staff have failed in the second half of the season offensively. As Johnson & Yant started turning it up and getting into a groove, the coaches intentionally chose to use them less. For me that's a "WTF" kind of thing.

Martinez is the easy scapegoat, but in my opinion Frost & the offensive staff absolutely deserve the lion's share of the blame.

 
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Born N Bled Red said:
Because it didn't work at Illinois, and the coaches want to keep their jobs. 

Run game already failed them in a tight game. Why wouldn't they try something else.
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The Illinois game was the one game this season where NU fell behind by 2-3 scores in the 3rd quarter, so that was a situation where it needed to pass to get back in the game.  The run game didn't fail in that tight game.

Against Minnesota, Johnson averaged 7.5 YPC, Yant averaged 4.0 YPC, and Morrison averaged 4.8 YPC.  I know Johnson got injured in the 3rd quarter, but there still wasn't a reason to go away from the run game when NU only trailed by 1 score.

Against Purdue, Yant averaged 10.0 YPC and Johnson averaged 4.0 YPC.  They only had 19 carries!!!  Again, no reason to go away from the run game when NU led for most of the 3rd quarter, and wasn't behind by 2 scores until 10:47 in the 4th.

 
Definitely not blaming this all on Frost/playcalling but the other thing I’d say: there has been at least one opposing fan on 247 each week before Gameday (besides Purdue because they don’t really have fans on 247) that has gone onto the board begging us not to throw to our monster TEs. And while we’ve definitely done a better job attacking with them this year, sometimes I don’t know why we don’t just spam throws to them over and over until teams prove they can stop it. And it seems they don’t get a lot of targets in the redzone.

Some of it is on Martinez and some of it is on the OLine. But there was a breakdown on Hailvarsity I believe that showed we also will shift Allen out to the perimeter sometimes and it’s like, who does that really scare? At best you’re planning for a jump ball situation, which he can definitely win, but you’re also asking an inaccurate passer to make those throws. 

 
Undone said:
So my conclusion there is that Frost & his offensive staff have failed in the second half of the season offensively. Martinez is the easy scapegoat, but in my opinion Frost & the offensive staff absolutely deserve the lion's share of the blame.
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Frost and his staff get impatient.  They see the opposing team milk the clock and grind out the yards.  Purdue wasn't even scoring points on offense against NU until the 3rd quarter, but Frost couldn't help himself and he felt like he needed to be able to score as quick as possible.

I like big plays and chunk plays, and I am not one who thinks that NU needs to have 12-15 play drives to be successful.  However, the offense needs to be able run the ball and commit to running the ball when the game is still close.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
The Illinois game was the one game this season where NU fell behind by 2-3 scores in the 3rd quarter, so that was a situation where it needed to pass to get back in the game.  The run game didn't fail in that tight game.

Against Minnesota, Johnson averaged 7.5 YPC, Yant averaged 4.0 YPC, and Morrison averaged 4.8 YPC.  I know Johnson got injured in the 3rd quarter, but there still wasn't a reason to go away from the run game when NU only trailed by 1 score.

Against Purdue, Yant averaged 10.0 YPC and Johnson averaged 4.0 YPC.  They only had 19 carries!!!  Again, no reason to go away from the run game when NU led for most of the 3rd quarter, and wasn't behind by 2 scores until 10:47 in the 4th.
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In the Purdue game the right side of the line quit freaking blocking the second third quarter started. The right side of the line was in the backfield more than the running back. I was screaming at the damn TV every play. 

Frost didn't move away from the run game against Purdue, it stopped working period. How many 3 and outs did we need to have to take due to the poor performing right side of the line just so you could say WelP, Frost stuck with the run? And how loud would you be screaming at him for not trying something different then? 

 
Another good write-up there, @Caliborn72. For me that's another data point for the argument that Frost is an intentional or unintentional overthinker.

The "Keep It Simple, Stupid" mantra doesn't seem to exist for him. In yet the two most successful teams in our division get their success with that strategy.

That's pretty frustrating. I think Frost needs one more year, but I'm not sure he's ever going to get this - or maybe he's just too damn stubborn to change.

 
Undone said:
That's pretty frustrating. I think Frost needs one more year, but I'm not sure he's ever going to get this - or maybe he's just too damn stubborn to change.
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Just curious here.  What do you think will change by Frost needing one more year?  Just an honest question.

 
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