^^^The Unofficial Capital One Bowl Pregame Thread^^^

Who Wins?

  • USC big

    Votes: 8 16.0%

  • USC close

    Votes: 8 16.0%

  • Too close to call

    Votes: 7 14.0%

  • NU close

    Votes: 22 44.0%

  • NU big

    Votes: 5 10.0%
  • Total voters
    50
Excel

Excel

New member
I did this for the Big Ten Championship game and it gave me a pretty good feel for that game so I figured I'd do it for this one as well. I present to you another Badgerfan breakdown...

Information

  • What: The 66th Capital One Bowl (previously known as Tangerine and Florida Citrus bowls)
  • Who: The University of Nebraska Cornhuskers at the University of South Carolina Gamecocks
  • Location: Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida. Capacity 70,000.
  • Date & Time: 12PM CST, Monday, 2 January 2012.
  • Weather: Average High 72° F, Average Low 51° F.
  • Broadcast Info: Televised on ESPN Nebraska Radio Network South Carolina Radio Network
  • Website: Official Facebook Twitter
  • Tickets: Official NU USC
  • Distance to Orlando
    From Columbia: 377 miles
  • From Lincoln: 1209 miles
[*]Last year's game: Alabama at Michigan State. Alabama won 49-7.

[*]Last meeting between these teams: 3 October 1987 in Lincoln, NE. Gamecocks 21 - Huskers 30*

[*]All time record between teams: Three meetings: 1987, 1986 and 1964. Nebraska won all three games.*

[*]Players to watch

  • South Carolina- QB Connor Shaw, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Bruce Ellington, DE Melvin Ingram, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Jadeveon Clowney
  • Nebraska- QB Taylor Martinez, RB Rex Burkhead, WR Kenny Bell, RB Ameer Abdullah, LB Lavonte David, CB Alfonzo Dennard, K/P Brett Maher SEE NOTE TWO
[*]Spread: South Carolina favored by 2*

[*]Last Capital One Bowl Appearance

  • Gamecocks: 1975 (lost to Miami, OH)
  • Huskers: 1991 (lost to GT)
  • Both teams are 0-1 in this bowl oddly enough
[*]Unit Rankings Offense

  • Gamecocks: 74th Overall Nationally, 375.4 ypg. Passing: 97th, 177.4 ypg. Rushing: 26th, 198.0 ypg. PPG: 45th, 30.1 pg.
  • Huskers: 59th Overall Nationally, 390.5 ypg. Passing: 103rd, 166.6 ypg. Rushing: 13th 223.9 ypg. PPG: 43rd, 30.5 pg.
[*]Unit Ranking Defense

  • Gamecocks: 4th Overall Nationally, 268.9 ypg. Passing: 2nd, 133 ypg. Rushing: 45th, 135.91 ypg. PPG: 13th, 18.8 pg.
  • Huskers: 36th Overall Nationally, 350.7 ypg. Passing: 17th, 189.08ypg. Rushing: 66th, 161.91 ypg. PPG: 39th, 22.8 pg.
[*]Takeaways

  • Interceptions
    USC - 18
  • NU - 10
[*]Fumbles

  • USC - 12
  • NU - 8


[*]Coaches

  • Gamecocks: Steve Spurrier
    22nd year Overall, 7th at USC.
  • 196-75-2 Overall, 54-35 at USC. (.717, .604)
  • Bowl Record: 7-10, 1-4 at USC
  • Accomplishments: 1 National Championship, 6 Conference Championships, 9 Division Titles.
[*]Huskers: Bo Pelini (4th year)

  • 4th year Overall, all 4 at NU
  • 39-15 (.722)
  • Bowl Record: 3-1
  • Accomplishments: 3 Division Titles


[*]Human Anatomy: The human head weighs 8 pounds.

[*]Injuries and losses:

  • Gamecocks:
    RB Marcus Lattimore, QB Stephen Garcia
[*]Huskers:

  • SEE NOTE TWO
  • DT Jared Crick,

    ​

    Possibles: TE Ben Cotton, C Mike Caputo


[*]Rankings

  • ​Gamecocks: AP 10, Coaches 9, BCS 9
  • Huskers: AP 21, Coaches 20, BCS 20
[*]Strength of Schedules

  • ​Sagarin Rankings

    ​USC - 33rd (73.13)
  • NU - 30th (73.37
[*]​Opponents Overall Records

  • ​USC- 75-58 (.563)
  • NU- 81-54 (.600)


[*]Breakdown of Schedules

  • ​USC 10-2 (6-2)
  • NU 9-3 (5-3)
  • Marquee Wins

    ​USC: @Georgia, vs. Clemson
  • NU: vs Ohio State, vs. Michigan State
[*]​Bad Losses

  • ​USC: @Arkansas (loss by 16)
  • NU: @Wisconsin (loss by 31) @ Michigan (loss by 28)
[*]​The "What the heck happened!?!" Loss

  • ​USC: Loss by 3 to visiting 7-5 Auburn.
  • NU: Loss by 3 to visiting 6-6 Northwestern.
[*]​Record against end of year ranked opponents:

  • ​USC: 2-2 (Wins against #16 UGA and #15 Clemson, Losses to #25 Auburn and #6 Arkansas)
  • NU: 2-2 (Wins against #17 MSU and #22 PSU, Losses to #10 UW and #13 UM)
[*]​Average Margin of Victory

  • ​USC 15.4
  • NU 17.1
[*]​Average Margin of Loss

  • ​USC 9.5
  • NU 20.6
[*]Close Losses (Within 7)

  • USC: One v. Auburn (by 3) Best case scenario: 11-1
  • NU: One v. Northwestern (by 3) Best case scenario: 10-2
[*]Close Wins

  • ​USC: Four v. Florida, UGA, Navy and Miss. St. Worst Case Scenario: 6-6
  • NU: Two v. Ohio State and Penn State. Worst Case Scenario: 7-5



[*]Select skill position numbers

  • ​QB

    ​USC: Shaw (So, 6'1", 204lbs, 4.53sec) PASSING - 12 TD's, 6 INT's, 65.5% comp, 1218 yards, 135 ypg. RUSHING - 483 yards, 7 TD's, 4.2 ypr, 53.7 ypg. Best Game: v. UK, 4TD's 311 yards Worst Game: v. UF. No TD's, 1 INT, 81 yds. 50% comp.
  • NU: Martinez (So, 6'1", 200lbs, 4.47sec) PASSING- 12 TD's, 7 INT's, 55.9% comp, 1973 yards, 164 ypg. RUSHING - 837 yards, 9 TD's, 4.9 ypr, 69.8 ypg. Best Game: W1 v. Chat. 116yds Passing, 0 TD's 135 yds Rushing 3TD's Worst Game: @ UW, 3 INT's no TD's passing. 50% comp or @ UM 39.1% comp and 122 yards.
[*]​RB

  • ​USC: Wilds (Fr, 6'0", 217lbs, 4.5sec) 486 yards, 3 TD's, 4.5 ypc, 54 ypg
  • NU: Burkhead (Jr, 5'11", 210, 4.46) 1268 yards, 15 TD's, 4.9ypc, 105.7ypg
[*]WR

  • ​USC: Jeffery (Jr, 6'4", 229lbs, 4.5sec) 614 yards, 7 TD's, 13.6 ypc, 51.2 ypg.
  • NU: Bell (Fr, 6'1", 180lbs, 4.45sec) 408 yards, 2 TD's, 14.1 ypc, 37.1 ypg.


[*]Select Defensive Leaders

  • USC
    ​DE Jadeveon Clowney- 33 Tackles, 2 FF's 6 Sacks, 6 TFL
  • DE Melvin Ingram- 44 Tackles, 8.5 Sacks, 12 TFL
  • LB Antonio Allen- 82 Tackles, 4 FF's, 3 INT's
  • CB Stephon Gilmore- 41 Tackles, 1 Sack, 3 INT's
  • CB CC Whiltock- 15 Tackles, 3 INT's
  • S DJ Swearinger- 73 Tackles, 3 INT's
[*]NU

  • ​LB Lavonte David- 112 Tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT's
  • CB Alfonzo Dennard - 27 Tackles
  • S Austin Cassidy- 59 Tackles, 2 INT's
  • SEE NOTE TWO


[*]Motivation

  • ​USC - Getting motivated for bowl games has been an issue in the past with players often checking out and not trying or feeling disgruntled with the quality of the bowl. This game looks to be different but we'll see. The team needs to recover from a long bowl win drought. Fan base split between being angry about missing out on Atlanta despite having beat every team in the East and happy about missing out on having to play LSU, either way they feel they have something to prove this year.
  • Nebraska- SEE NOTE TWO




Note One - Full disclosure, I'm a Wisconsin native and fan but I am also a USC grad. Now that that is out there it shouldn't matter much because most of this is just raw stats but if you see something you question there's your answer. I AM biased. I admit it, I want the Gamecocks to beat Nebraska. Anything that is not pure numbers and stats is my opinion. Take it at that.

Note Two- I am not as familiar with Husker football as you guys are. I put this in places where I'm ignorant of your situation and would like to difer to your opinions, but feel free to chime in on other areas as well.

 
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SC has been playing better ball but we've been a better bowl team Our crappy, didn't-want-to-be-there performance last season has been SC's typical bowl performance. Even in that game Bo's D showed-up. The D has held their own in each of Bo's bowls, I think they'll hold their own in this one too. Question is whether the O can avoid the turnovers, penalties, and drops that killed us in our three losses.

 
Another awesome post. Badgerfan is bringing it today. Regarding the note on "players to watch" and "injuries and losses", Jared Crick as been out for the season since the Ohio St. game with a torn pectoral. Personally, I would replace him with Brett Maher, as field position and field goal conversions could be big factors in the outcome of this game. Maher has been great as a place kicker all year, but has been slightly inconsistent as a punter late in the season. A big game from him could put Nebraska over the top.

Also, there is a very real possibility (at least, it's still just a possibility as far as I know) that the Huskers could be without starting C and senior Mike Caputo for the game.

Finally, starting TE Ben Cotton appears to be questionable for the game as he continues to recover.

 
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Quick things to edit.

Martinez is a Sophomore, not Junior.

Alfonso Dennard is way more of a defensive leader than Austin Cassidy.

Other than that, from what I saw at least, nice work!

 
I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial!

FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red.

 
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robsker said:
I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial!

FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red.
Click to expand...
South Carolina (-2.5) LINK

No way to know which way it will move by kickoff.

 
robsker said:
I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial!

FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red.
Click to expand...
Gotta disagree here. This is not a true road game. We will be focused and ready. And, while we may or may not win, it will be close and will NOT be a blowout.

 
What are some other stats and comparisons that would be good to look at for this game?

I can think of a few...

NU vs. Mobile QB's

USC vs. top 70 offenses and offenses that run a derivation of the option.

Connor Shaw vs. top 50 offenses....

Bo Pelini's defenses against Spurrier's USC teams.

 
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NU is 7-0 against $EC in bowl games

* Heard that we lost one to Auburn but my memory has a 4 year black out for some reason

 
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