Tom Osborne made the WRONG decision in the 1984 Orange Bowl

Let's say he goes for two earlier, like statistics said he should have, misses, then scores later and misses again. Not that he was going for it, but: 

What's the legacy? The legacy is two bonehead calls when he should have kicked the extra point. Now the legacy is: cojones.

 
MinnwiscowaSker said:
Let's say he goes for two earlier, like statistics said he should have, misses, then scores later and misses again. Not that he was going for it, but: 

What's the legacy? The legacy is two bonehead calls when he should have kicked the extra point. Now the legacy is: cojones.
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But, if Osborne explains, "Being down 14, I knew we needed 2 TD's to win or tie. I knew I would be going for 2 after the 2nd TD, but I wanted to do the mathematically appropriate strategy, so that's why I went for 2 after the first TD.  I knew if I missed the first 2 point conversion, I would at least have an opportunity to tie after the 2nd TD."  Of course, that would require fans and media to understand the math behind the decision, and that's easier said than done.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
Here's a chart I found on the interweb, so it looks most years the conversion rate is between 40-50%.  I have always assumed a 50% conversion rate.

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What's really changed over time is the kick expected value, which obviously has continuously increased. I think the year to year variation in the two point conversion percentage is just random noise due to a small sample size.

I wonder what the values are like in the NFL with the extra point being from the 15 yard line, and the two point conversion being from the two yard line rather than the three yard line.

 
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Corn55 said:
I wonder what the values are like in the NFL with the extra point being from the 15 yard line, and the two point conversion being from the two yard line rather than the three yard line.
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Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the NFL PAT conversion percentage for the kick was 94.1%, while the 2 point conversions from the 2-yard line was 49.4% successful.  This would make the expected value of the 2-point conversion slightly higher than the kicked PAT.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-2-point-conversion-success-rate/14xqvso7ght731i836opc1oxgz#:~:text=NFL two-point conversion success,94.1 percent of the time.

 
The difference is not necessarily mathematical, but rather manufacturing a scenario where achieving a tie is an acceptable outcome. In either scenario you have exactly one 2pt conversion opportunity to win the game.  

 
Mavric said:
Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble
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You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

Mavric said:
Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble
Click to expand...
You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

Mavric said:
Just like running the ball:

1 - gain yards

2 - lose yards

3 - fumble
Click to expand...
You forgot, a fumble can at least be recovered by yer own team, INT’s, not.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the NFL PAT conversion percentage for the kick was 94.1%, while the 2 point conversions from the 2-yard line was 49.4% successful.  This would make the expected value of the 2-point conversion slightly higher than the kicked PAT.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-2-point-conversion-success-rate/14xqvso7ght731i836opc1oxgz#:~:text=NFL two-point conversion success,94.1 percent of the time.
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This stuff has been really interesting.  I never really thought about the percentages at the time, because it was win or lose.  I just barely remember they had to go for it even though chances were super difficult to convert during those times.  But I remember momentum felt good?  And after one replay it was obvious the play was perfect (even though I screamed for them throwing), but the Miami player made a great play to deflect the pass. I always knew if a player made a great play (for us or against us), then there is nothing you can do about it.  Miami defender saved the day for them, but killed our championship. Smith would have caught it and history rewritten.

 
I don’t think anybody would have been pissed at him if he had gotten a 31-31 tie by missing the first two point attempt and then missing the second. People would have only been pissed if he kicked both times and settled for 31-31 that way. 

 
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