Tommy Armstrong's Passing Game Breakdown vs. Fresno

[ColoradoHusk]

One thing that bothers me with a lot of fans and their critique about Tommy is that they refuse to count in Tommy's run game. On Saturday,, Tommy had 11 runs for 43 yards According to the play by play, 6 of Tommy's 11 run attempts went for 3 yards or more. To me, those are like completions in the short passing game. So, if I add the 11 run attempts and 6 positive runs to Tommy's passing stats, his passing stats would be: 11 of 21 (52.3%) for 151 yards, 3 TD's, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. The adjusted "completion %" is low, and I would like Tommy's total offense to be at least 200 total yards. But, in a vanilla scheme against Fresno, Tommy's stats are more efficient than first glance would show.

 

[Enhance]

One thing that bothers me with a lot of fans and their critique about Tommy is that they refuse to count in Tommy's run game. On Saturday,, Tommy had 11 runs for 43 yards According to the play by play, 6 of Tommy's 11 run attempts went for 3 yards or more. To me, those are like completions in the short passing game. So, if I add the 11 run attempts and 6 positive runs to Tommy's passing stats, his passing stats would be: 11 of 21 (52.3%) for 151 yards, 3 TD's, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. The adjusted "completion %" is low, and I would like Tommy's total offense to be at least 200 total yards. But, in a vanilla scheme against Fresno, Tommy's stats are more efficient than first glance would show.

Agreed. He was efficient Saturday when you take the entire performance into context. I don't really have any complaints given the opponent and the game plan.

The no turnovers is really what it boils down to - lower completion percentages are fine when you have the ability to stretch the field with your legs. It becomes a problem when you're throwing 1-2 interceptions a game or more. He certainly could've played better, but there is something everyone should keep in mind - TA isn't a Heisman candidate. And that's fine. I only bring it up to keep in perspective what people should expect this year.

 

[GBRFAN]

One thing that bothers me with a lot of fans and their critique about Tommy is that they refuse to count in Tommy's run game. On Saturday,, Tommy had 11 runs for 43 yards According to the play by play, 6 of Tommy's 11 run attempts went for 3 yards or more. To me, those are like completions in the short passing game. So, if I add the 11 run attempts and 6 positive runs to Tommy's passing stats, his passing stats would be: 11 of 21 (52.3%) for 151 yards, 3 TD's, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. The adjusted "completion %" is low, and I would like Tommy's total offense to be at least 200 total yards. But, in a vanilla scheme against Fresno, Tommy's stats are more efficient than first glance would show.

This is a valid point and should be considered for all dual threat type QB's - I would say that 3 yard gains are just short of successful ( 3 of those and it is 4th and 1 - punting). I would say that 5 yards or more would be successful plays getting you a first down if one of the 3 plays fails. It would be interesting to keep this stat for the entire season.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

One thing that bothers me with a lot of fans and their critique about Tommy is that they refuse to count in Tommy's run game. On Saturday,, Tommy had 11 runs for 43 yards According to the play by play, 6 of Tommy's 11 run attempts went for 3 yards or more. To me, those are like completions in the short passing game. So, if I add the 11 run attempts and 6 positive runs to Tommy's passing stats, his passing stats would be: 11 of 21 (52.3%) for 151 yards, 3 TD's, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. The adjusted "completion %" is low, and I would like Tommy's total offense to be at least 200 total yards. But, in a vanilla scheme against Fresno, Tommy's stats are more efficient than first glance would show.

This is a valid point and should be considered for all dual threat type QB's - I would say that 3 yard gains are just short of successful ( 3 of those and it is 4th and 1 - punting). I would say that 5 yards or more would be successful plays getting you a first down if one of the 3 plays fails. It would be interesting to keep this stat for the entire season.

My point of "3 yard gains" wasn't saying it is successful. However, those 3 yard gains are very similar to 3 yard passes that many teams utilize. Those 3 yard completions help inflate the completion %, even if it's not a very successful play. I was just trying to assign a running yardage equivalency to a completion.

 

[NUance]

One thing that bothers me with a lot of fans and their critique about Tommy is that they refuse to count in Tommy's run game. On Saturday,, Tommy had 11 runs for 43 yards According to the play by play, 6 of Tommy's 11 run attempts went for 3 yards or more. To me, those are like completions in the short passing game. So, if I add the 11 run attempts and 6 positive runs to Tommy's passing stats, his passing stats would be: 11 of 21 (52.3%) for 151 yards, 3 TD's, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. The adjusted "completion %" is low, and I would like Tommy's total offense to be at least 200 total yards. But, in a vanilla scheme against Fresno, Tommy's stats are more efficient than first glance would show.

This is a valid point and should be considered for all dual threat type QB's - I would say that 3 yard gains are just short of successful ( 3 of those and it is 4th and 1 - punting). I would say that 5 yards or more would be successful plays getting you a first down if one of the 3 plays fails. It would be interesting to keep this stat for the entire season.

Great breakdown of TA's passing game. And good point about Tommy's run game. People don't give him enough credit as a runner. And also as a scrambler. Some of those passes were made on the run after he scrambled away from a break down in pass blocking. There aren't many (any?) QBs playing right now who are better at scrambling out of trouble than Tommy Armstrong. How many times have we seen him turn a broken pocket into positive yardage? And think about how seldom it is that we seem him take a sack for a big loss. They guy definitely has some wheels.

 

[Warrior10]

I saw 3 bad passes:

Deep one to Westy wasn't single coverage, there was safety help that met the ball there. Sure he was under pressure but that doesn't mean you lob it up. In close games, those hurt.

Pass to Newby over middle. Gotta hit that one. Had middle of field completely cleared out and our RB one vs one with an overmatched LB. That's a 10 yard+ easy one.

Pass to Ozigbo. Sure was a nice 5 yard gain, but he waited till Ozigbo was about to out of bounds to throw it. He had clear space if he gets it to him sooner we get 10 yards. Not a huge mistake but a little play your 5th year Sr QB has to make.

Thought both deep balls to Moore we're thrown exceptional, DB just made a heckuva play on 1st. Both sideline routes to Moore and Morgan were perfect. Agree on Carter route, TA did the right thing. Screen was done from beginning.

 

[Count 'Bility]

the missed one to Newby is when it really hit me that he still has zero touch on his passes. thats prbably a 20 yard gain on a simple little 5-10 yard toss that needs to be a routine play, nothing less.

 

[teachercd]

Can you break down the O-Line too?

 

[knapplc]

I saw 3 bad passes:

Deep one to Westy wasn't single coverage, there was safety help that met the ball there. Sure he was under pressure but that doesn't mean you lob it up. In close games, those hurt.

Pass to Newby over middle. Gotta hit that one. Had middle of field completely cleared out and our RB one vs one with an overmatched LB. That's a 10 yard+ easy one.

Pass to Ozigbo. Sure was a nice 5 yard gain, but he waited till Ozigbo was about to out of bounds to throw it. He had clear space if he gets it to him sooner we get 10 yards. Not a huge mistake but a little play your 5th year Sr QB has to make.

Thought both deep balls to Moore we're thrown exceptional, DB just made a heckuva play on 1st. Both sideline routes to Moore and Morgan were perfect. Agree on Carter route, TA did the right thing. Screen was done from beginning.

Only watched the game live, haven't had a chance to watch tape, but the bold is the pass where Tommy threw a bullet into Ozigbo's facemask, yes? That was such a wasted opportunity.

Now that I think about it, wasn't the pass to Newby also rifled in there too hard? A little more touch on those passes and we have much bigger gains.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I honestly didn't realize people were criticizing Tommy's game.

This was a gameplan for an offense still finding its strengths and limiting its liabilities.

Tommy played perfectly well within that gameplan. Two touchdowns rushing, a pocket passing TD bomb and no turnovers.

And a whole lot to practice on this week.

 

[Count 'Bility]

I saw 3 bad passes:

Deep one to Westy wasn't single coverage, there was safety help that met the ball there. Sure he was under pressure but that doesn't mean you lob it up. In close games, those hurt.

Pass to Newby over middle. Gotta hit that one. Had middle of field completely cleared out and our RB one vs one with an overmatched LB. That's a 10 yard+ easy one.

Pass to Ozigbo. Sure was a nice 5 yard gain, but he waited till Ozigbo was about to out of bounds to throw it. He had clear space if he gets it to him sooner we get 10 yards. Not a huge mistake but a little play your 5th year Sr QB has to make.

Thought both deep balls to Moore we're thrown exceptional, DB just made a heckuva play on 1st. Both sideline routes to Moore and Morgan were perfect. Agree on Carter route, TA did the right thing. Screen was done from beginning.

Only watched the game live, haven't had a chance to watch tape, but the bold is the pass where Tommy threw a bullet into Ozigbo's facemask, yes? That was such a wasted opportunity.

Now that I think about it, wasn't the pass to Newby also rifled in there too hard? A little more touch on those passes and we have much bigger gains.

That and its safe to assume his eyes were locked downfield throughout the whole roll action and wound up throwing it too late. Missed opportunity indeed. It's just one of those things as a qb, knowing where your guys are and knowing who's gonna be open immediately at the snap simple based on the rolling coverage, instead of having to wait for guys to come open or locking onto 1 or 2 and hoping they come open.

 

[Count 'Bility]

I honestly didn't realize people were criticizing Tommy's game.

This was a gameplan for an offense still finding its strengths and limiting its liabilities.

Tommy played perfectly well within that gameplan. Two touchdowns rushing, a pocket passing TD bomb and no turnovers.

And a whole lot to practice on this week.

I thnk there's a sense of unknown still. that saturday didnt really show us anything glaring in the name of improvement. Then throw in the fact that offensive plan was so geared down and our qb only threw 10 passes, it's leaving a lot of folks, esp me, with this sense of wonder of whats gonna happen when we play teams we cant completely impose our will on. Then of the few passes we did throw, there's some examples of the continueing lack of basic execution causing missed opportuniteis. So here we are again. Game 1 in the books. And there's still a sense of wondering what we have with a 5th year senior, 4 year starting qb. We like to say we know what we have with Armstrong, but yet there's another part that right now, for the sake of this season, we still dont.

 

[ZRod]

I saw 3 bad passes:

Deep one to Westy wasn't single coverage, there was safety help that met the ball there. Sure he was under pressure but that doesn't mean you lob it up. In close games, those hurt.

Pass to Newby over middle. Gotta hit that one. Had middle of field completely cleared out and our RB one vs one with an overmatched LB. That's a 10 yard+ easy one.Pass to Ozigbo. Sure was a nice 5 yard gain, but he waited till Ozigbo was about to out of bounds to throw it. He had clear space if he gets it to him sooner we get 10 yards. Not a huge mistake but a little play your 5th year Sr QB has to make.

Thought both deep balls to Moore we're thrown exceptional, DB just made a heckuva play on 1st. Both sideline routes to Moore and Morgan were perfect. Agree on Carter route, TA did the right thing. Screen was done from beginning.

Only watched the game live, haven't had a chance to watch tape, but the bold is the pass where Tommy threw a bullet into Ozigbo's facemask, yes? That was such a wasted opportunity.

Now that I think about it, wasn't the pass to Newby also rifled in there too hard? A little more touch on those passes and we have much bigger gains.

The Newby pass was rifled, but it's hard to fault that one. He had defenders closing in on both sides. Maybe it could have been a bit softer, but too much air and it's probably getting picked.
It's something most NFL guys would have caught, but a low percentage ball in college.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

I saw 3 bad passes:

Deep one to Westy wasn't single coverage, there was safety help that met the ball there. Sure he was under pressure but that doesn't mean you lob it up. In close games, those hurt.

Pass to Newby over middle. Gotta hit that one. Had middle of field completely cleared out and our RB one vs one with an overmatched LB. That's a 10 yard+ easy one.Pass to Ozigbo. Sure was a nice 5 yard gain, but he waited till Ozigbo was about to out of bounds to throw it. He had clear space if he gets it to him sooner we get 10 yards. Not a huge mistake but a little play your 5th year Sr QB has to make.

Thought both deep balls to Moore we're thrown exceptional, DB just made a heckuva play on 1st. Both sideline routes to Moore and Morgan were perfect. Agree on Carter route, TA did the right thing. Screen was done from beginning.

Only watched the game live, haven't had a chance to watch tape, but the bold is the pass where Tommy threw a bullet into Ozigbo's facemask, yes? That was such a wasted opportunity.

Now that I think about it, wasn't the pass to Newby also rifled in there too hard? A little more touch on those passes and we have much bigger gains.

The Newby pass was rifled, but it's hard to fault that one. He had defenders closing in on both sides. Maybe it could have been a bit softer, but too much air and it's probably getting picked.
It's something most NFL guys would have caught, but a low percentage ball in college.

I know I made this point in my original post, but that pass play to Newby on the angle route was doomed to fail from the very start. Riley should have called timeout to make sure the o-line was settled and the team was 100% ready for a key 3rd and 2.

 

[admo]

With only 10 official passing attempts by Armstrong vs. Fresno State, there seems to be a lot of concern about Langsdorf being afraid to use Tommy in the passing game, and Tommy continuing to be poor in the passing game. I am not saying either of those opinions are wrong, but I did want to go back through the game and look at all the passing attempts by Tommy and put in my point of view. Now, I am not a QB coach or offensive coordinator, and I am not using the All-22 view which gives coaches the best view on seeing the game. But, I think this breakdown is helpful.

Excellent analysis. I pretty much agree with you.

But I would point out that the concern over Langsdorf being afraid of Tommy isn't really an opinion. It's pretty much what Langsdorf said himself. So perhaps Langsdorf is looking into things a little deeper as to what else could or should have been going on on some of those plays.

Eh, Tommy can win you games and lose you games. As said by many.

His footwork and quick decision to leave the pocket quite often is probably why he (Langsdorf) his handcuffed.

The second one happens when it's not always necessary (light pressure from outside, just step up into the pocket), but either way it eliminates the routes and then it becomes backyard ball.

As for his footwork....How often does he square up and stride forward into his throws? It's kind of hit or miss, right?. I mean, when he does stride properly he throws it pretty well. When he doesn't, he's taking little steps left, backwards, even forwards - during his throwing motion. :/ He's off balanced and that affects accuracy.

But he's our guy and it's his 4th year as a starter, so all we can do is hope it all works out this season and doesn't bite the team.