Triaging the QB room

I'm getting the sense that portal QBs tend to be a crapshoot and not exactly a science.  Nothing from Michael Penix Jr at Indiana would lead you to believe that he would be at this level at UW.  He got worse each year at IU, but finds the right fit at UW and goes off.

Same with Burrow, a career backup at OSU, hit the portal and was an average QB in year one at LSU.  Then in year 2 QBs one of the greatest offenses in CFB history and becomes the #1 overall draft pick.

Michael Penix Jr

2019 Indiana 6 games / 69% comp% / 8.7 ypa / 2.5% Int% / 81.6 QBR (would have been 10th nationally if qualified)

2020 Indiana 6 games / 56% comp% / 7.5 ypa / 1.8% Int% / 67.7 QBR (43rd nationally)

2021 Indiana 5 games / 54% comp% / 5.8 ypa / 4.3% Int% / 51.1 QBR (would have been 87th nationally if qualified)

2022 Washington 13 games / 65% comp% / 8.4 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 81.1 QBR (12th nationally)

2023 Washington 6 games / 72% comp% / 10.7 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 91.7 QBR (2nd nationally)

 
Red Five said:
Same with Burrow, a career backup at OSU, hit the portal and was an average QB in year one at LSU.  Then in year 2 QBs one of the greatest offenses in CFB history and becomes the #1 overall draft pick.
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Nebraska gets a lot of crap about Burrow.  But it was really Ohio State that messed up.  They chose JT Barrett over him.  Barrett had a good but not great college career, went undrafted and never did anything in the NFL.

They had Burrow in practice every day.  So either they were worse evaluators that we are or some guys are just late bloomers that need the right situation to thrive.  Even Burrow's first year at LSU wasn't anything spectacular.

 
Mavric said:
Nebraska gets a lot of crap about Burrow.  But it was really Ohio State that messed up.  They chose JT Barrett over him.  Barrett had a good but not great college career, went undrafted and never did anything in the NFL.

They had Burrow in practice every day.  So either they were worse evaluators that we are or some guys are just late bloomers that need the right situation to thrive.  Even Burrow's first year at LSU wasn't anything spectacular.
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Burrow lost the Ohio State QB battle in Spring 2018 to Dwayne Haskins. Haskins then had a great year in 2018, and was drafted in the first round of the 2019 draft. But, yes, Ohio State had the first “bad evaluation” of Joe Burrow. Basically,

not many expected Burrow to be what he’s been in the 2019 season and beyond. 

 
Red Five said:
I'm getting the sense that portal QBs tend to be a crapshoot and not exactly a science.  Nothing from Michael Penix Jr at Indiana would lead you to believe that he would be at this level at UW.  He got worse each year at IU, but finds the right fit at UW and goes off.

Same with Burrow, a career backup at OSU, hit the portal and was an average QB in year one at LSU.  Then in year 2 QBs one of the greatest offenses in CFB history and becomes the #1 overall draft pick.

Michael Penix Jr

2019 Indiana 6 games / 69% comp% / 8.7 ypa / 2.5% Int% / 81.6 QBR (would have been 10th nationally if qualified)

2020 Indiana 6 games / 56% comp% / 7.5 ypa / 1.8% Int% / 67.7 QBR (43rd nationally)

2021 Indiana 5 games / 54% comp% / 5.8 ypa / 4.3% Int% / 51.1 QBR (would have been 87th nationally if qualified)

2022 Washington 13 games / 65% comp% / 8.4 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 81.1 QBR (12th nationally)

2023 Washington 6 games / 72% comp% / 10.7 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 91.7 QBR (2nd nationally)
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I think a lot of it is supporting cast, but also the ability of coaches to put kids in good situations to succeed.  I wonder sometimes how many guys could have been super stars in a different setting, but did nothing because they were in the wrong one.  We will never know.  I do know that we consistently have been unable to get players to "level up" so to speak, but hopefully that tide is turning.

 
Red Five said:
I'm getting the sense that portal QBs tend to be a crapshoot and not exactly a science.  Nothing from Michael Penix Jr at Indiana would lead you to believe that he would be at this level at UW.  He got worse each year at IU, but finds the right fit at UW and goes off.

Same with Burrow, a career backup at OSU, hit the portal and was an average QB in year one at LSU.  Then in year 2 QBs one of the greatest offenses in CFB history and becomes the #1 overall draft pick.

Michael Penix Jr

2019 Indiana 6 games / 69% comp% / 8.7 ypa / 2.5% Int% / 81.6 QBR (would have been 10th nationally if qualified)

2020 Indiana 6 games / 56% comp% / 7.5 ypa / 1.8% Int% / 67.7 QBR (43rd nationally)

2021 Indiana 5 games / 54% comp% / 5.8 ypa / 4.3% Int% / 51.1 QBR (would have been 87th nationally if qualified)

2022 Washington 13 games / 65% comp% / 8.4 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 81.1 QBR (12th nationally)

2023 Washington 6 games / 72% comp% / 10.7 ypa / 1.4% Int% / 91.7 QBR (2nd nationally)
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Another metric that I think shows the same thing is where starting NFL QBs played in college.  There are so many from schools that had no business recruiting top-shelf QBs.  Kind of says the same thing about it being at least somewhat of a crapshoot.

Josh Allen (Wyoming), Jared Goff (California, Cal had two before Rogers got hurt), Jordan Love (Utah State), Jimmy G (Eastern Ill), Derek Carr (Fresno State).  PJ Walker (Temple) was an injury fill in starter this week).  Texas Tech had a ton of QBs put up video-game numbers but only Mahomes sticks in the NFL.  Geno Smith (West Virginia), Brock Purdy (Iowa State), Zach Wilson (BYU), Tyrod Taylor (Va Tech), Gardner Minshew (Wash State), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) aren't from small schools but that's a good percentage from places that aren't top-flight recruiters.  Alabama has three right now but they went a long time - and a bunch of #1 recruiting classes - without really finding a game-changing signal-caller.  

 
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