Vegas sets Huskers Over/Under at 5.5 wins

Saunders

Saunders

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Found this in Mandel's Mailbag.

Hey Stewart: I assume you saw the Vegas over/unders for season win totals. I know you aren’t a gambling man, but did any of those stand out to you? Anyone too high or too low in your view?

Mark W.

Oh, I’m a gambling man now, baby. I might not be able to cover games on Saturdays anymore because I’ll be too busy refreshing halftime lines.

(To be clear, I’m joking. I’m a professional. I would never bet on an event I’m covering even if it’s legal. Also to be clear, I’m not winking at you right now.)

In looking over the list, there were several times I saw a number that struck me as unduly high or low, but then I looked up the team’s schedule, and yeah, I could see that. They included Nebraska (over 5.5), Rutgers (over 4), Arizona (over 7), Stanford (over 8.5), Mississippi State (under 8) and Washington State (under 7.5).

https://theathletic.com/364579/2018/05/23/mandels-mailbag-what-stands-out-among-vegas-college-football-win-total-over-unders/
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Vegas Link: https://www.betdsi.eu/sportsbook-betting/college-football-odds/college-football-props/

 
1.  These guys all bet on the games.  It doesn't make a writer "unprofessional" to gamble on a game, they have no impact on the outcome.

2.  I like all his picks.

 
Yeah I like Nebraska's chances of beating a 5.5 win total.  I mean hell, even if we only manage 6 wins (I truly believe 7 is bare minimum), it's a win.  Think I'll get in on that action.

 
teachercd said:
1.  These guys all bet on the games.  It doesn't make a writer "unprofessional" to gamble on a game, they have no impact on the outcome.

2.  I like all his picks.
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If you are a media person who could have access to "inside information", you would be stupid to not and try and use that to your advantage.  I don't know how much that inside info really helps those guys with their betting, but like you say, it's not unprofessional.

 
I was thinking the same thing- I'm not there until July.  My guess is betting will drive the number up to 6.5 by then though.

 
Sorry if already posted, here is ESPN’s FPI projections:

nebraskasched.png


Seems somewhat fair at 6-6, but I wouldn’t agree with most of the percentages. Specifically Northwestern: that seems like more of a toss-up than anything. Purdue and Colorado games likely determine if we go bowling, have to like our chances there.

My main concern for this year is our depth, which sounds shaky and possibly worse than I expected. Depth issues means I have no confidence in the last 5 games or so, excluding Illinois. Iowa on the road is a manageable game unless we are dealing with some injuries by that point.

 
'Memba last year when we were all outraged by this type of prediction?  Ok, ok, so i wasn't outraged, but it was puzzling to me how we could Vegas saying our win total would be so low, and yet somehow scouts were drooling over our first round draft pick QB.  It didn't really compute.  Sometimes you just have to be shown.

 
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