Week 9 Preview: Wisconsin

No....Im not a gambler.

I find it interesting that the betting public has set it at Wisconsin by that much.

I also think it's going to be a higher scoring game.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Line is Wisconsin -9 and over/under is 42.5.

Interesting.
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So roughly 26-17 Wisconsin? Yeah, I would bet the over. Not saying we win, but I think we score more than 17. I think both defenses put up some points in this one, or at least acquire a short field for the offense.
 
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IA State Husker said:
BigRedBuster said:
Line is Wisconsin -9 and over/under is 42.5.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
So roughly 26-17 Wisconsin? Yeah, I would bet the over. Not saying we win, but I think we score more than 17. I think both defenses put up some points in this one, or at least acquire a short field for the offense.
Click to expand...
I get that Wisconsin is a favored, but this line is too high regardless of how the game plays out. Their offense isn't good enough to blow us out and our defense is top 15 in scoring. I'm thinking people feel like this is the breaking game of us lucking out and the wheels fall off.

 
I think that this game really boils down to Langsdorf putting on the mental performance of his Husker career to date.

Throwing into the flats and finding high-percentage ways to spread the field out is the most likely way we win. The other way we win is if Tommy just has that "on" day where his 7 - 12 yard balls are on the money and he's finding his guys. If he starts hitting those routes, the running lanes open up.

If he misses those throws in the first half, here comes their blitzes, and it's over.

But...that's where it's Danny's job to find the high-percentage pass plays that *are working* and ride them down the field.

 
Undone said:
I think that this game really boils down to Langsdorf putting on the mental performance of his Husker career to date.

Throwing into the flats and finding high-percentage ways to spread the field out is the most likely way we win. The other way we win is if Tommy just has that "on" day where his 7 - 12 yard balls are on the money and he's finding his guys. If he starts hitting those routes, the running lanes open up.

If he misses those throws in the first half, here comes their blitzes, and it's over.

But...that's where it's Danny's job to find the high-percentage pass plays that *are working* and ride them down the field.
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Couldn't agree more. We have not thrown many WR/bubble screens in the last few weeks. Need to make Wisconsin defend sideline to sideline. Our WR also have a size advantage over their DB Those that play are all under 6".

 
BigRedBuster said:
Line is Wisconsin -9 and over/under is 42.5.

Interesting.
Click to expand...
Seems like a high over/under. Against top Defenses Wisconsin has scored 7-Michigan - 16 LSU and 17 Iowa . I don't see Wisconsin going over 17 . This is due to our defense and the chew the clock style of both coaching staffs. It also seems unlikely that Nebraska clears 20. Good news for Nebraska is that when going on the road in a tough environment I think that the visitors are more likely to get an upset if they can bring in a strong defense. Time for DPE to break one and deliver the extra push needed to get a win.

 
Undone said:
I think that this game really boils down to Langsdorf putting on the mental performance of his Husker career to date.

Throwing into the flats and finding high-percentage ways to spread the field out is the most likely way we win. The other way we win is if Tommy just has that "on" day where his 7 - 12 yard balls are on the money and he's finding his guys. If he starts hitting those routes, the running lanes open up.

If he misses those throws in the first half, here comes their blitzes, and it's over.

But...that's where it's Danny's job to find the high-percentage pass plays that *are working* and ride them down the field.
Click to expand...
I agree with what you said except that it needs to be the "mental performance of his Husker career". He has had some games that he did exceptionally well. In fact, most games since the Purdue game last year, he has done well with a few exceptions here and there. MSU, UCLA, Oregon are just a few that come to mind that were very well done by him.

I expect he will do the same in this one.

 
I know that you can't just go off of last year, but I think it gives a small sample size for help/comparison

Passing

Armstrong 11/28 129 Yds 1 TD, 0 INT

Stave 24/50 322 Yds 1 TD, 0 INT

I think that Wisconsin will have a higher percentage and less throws than last year. We also know our pass defense is way better than last year and could possibly get a turnover here. Armstrong has to throw better than 39% if we want to have a chance. Him not turning it over last year though def helped.

Rushing

Janovich 3 carries 59 yds 1 TD

Armstrong 8 carries 50 yds 1 TD

Newby 15 carries 39 yds

Cross 6 carries 21 yds

Ozigbo 3 carries 9 yds

Ogunbowale 18 carries 117 yds

Ingold 8 carries 14 yds 1 TD

I would give the upper hand right now to Wisconsin since they also have a healthy Clement. With our offensive line banged up Armstrong will need to make some plays with his feet.

Receiving

Moore 1 rec 41 yards 1 TD

Pierson-El 2 rec 31 yds

Carter 3 rec 23 yds

Westerkamp 2 rec 17 yds

Erickson 7 rec 113 yds 1 TD

Wheelwright 6 rec 81 yds

Fumagalli 6 rec 60 yds 1 TD

Peavy 4 rec 44 yds

Nebraska has solid depth at WR, but we will need to give Tommy time to throw the ball. We definitely have more weapons and need to capitalize on our big play ability.

Defense

4/5 of our leading tacklers from this game last year are back

3/5 of their leading tacklers from this game are back

 
BigRedBuster said:
I agree with what you said except that it needs to be the "mental performance of his Husker career". He has had some games that he did exceptionally well. In fact, most games since the Purdue game last year, he has done well with a few exceptions here and there. MSU, UCLA, Oregon are just a few that come to mind that were very well done by him.

I expect he will do the same in this one.
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I *feel like* this year's Wisconsin defense is considerably better than even last year's Spartan defense. That's really why I feel that Danny will have to have an incredible coaching performance.

Given our propensity to start slow, halftime adjustments will no doubt be critical.

 
suh_fan93 said:
There's the LSU game but they just limped by Iowa and don't forget Georgia State (Wiscy won by 6 points...) but then they lose to (the) OSU by 3 and by 7 to Michigan so I'm not sure what to make of this team.

I wasn't expecting much of Wiscy before the season started. So far it seems like sometimes they show up well and other times they don't. This could be a much closer game than would appear but it also could also go the other direction. Wiscy is an odd team to gauge this year.
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I think Wisconsin has been fairly consistent so far this year. A lot of people have been putting undue weight on the GSU game because it better fits their preconceived notions of what they thought UW was going to be coming into the year. UW played all or most of that game with out our #1 target in TE Fumigalli, our top 3 RBs, both starting G's and switched QBs in the second half. That is excluding the fact that that game was a gimme before the hardest stretch in UW history and they called it as conservatively as possible.

In every game against meaningful competition UW has been remarkably consistent. We shut teams down on D, primarily by limiting the run and then blitzing the crap out of the QB on 3rd down. Our LBs are quick and sure tacklers, as are our S's, which means teams face a lot of 3rd and 6 or 7's and then we bring pressure to force quick throws into covered areas. UW is currently 4th in the nation in 3rd down D with opposing offenses converting around 24% of the time. That is the key to our D. Limit big plays, make teams convert third and longs as they drive down the field. The only thing that has given us consistent trouble are quick, dink and dunk type drives. If TA is able to get the ball out of his hand quickly and in rhythm you guys will move the ball. If you are relying on 10-20 yard routes off of 4 or 5 step drops (obviously different in shotgun but those type of routes) I think you will really struggle to find consistency on O. The run game isn't going to work.

On offense UW has been consistent in its inconsistency, primarily in the red zone. The LSU, Iowa, and MSU games all could have been 10-20 points worse if UW had just been able to cash in some of its long drives for scores. For as inept as the scores look, UW has actually been pretty good at moving the ball. There haven't been many 3 & outs, usually they are able to get at least a 1st down or three before someone drops a pass or whiffs on a block to get us behind the chains. They have really struggled in the opponents last third of the field. Hornibrook shows a lot of promise but he does not get good zip on the ball, so he seems to have difficulty fitting it in to the tighter spaces around the end zone. Our play calling is also pretty vanilla, 9 times out of 10 CC is getting it on 1st and 2nd around the goal line, and the O line has been unable to give him much space to work. Outside of the Red Zone, CC has been running hard the last few weeks. He isn't anywhere near as explosive as Gordon, White or Ball so his 'big' runs tend to be of the 10-20 yard variety and usually involve a broken tackle or two. This has in some ways helped our D stay off the field because our drives are seldom under 6-8 plays and involve taking chunks off the clock, though we could obviously use some more scoring. The WRs use a lot of crossing routes and play action to gain space. We don't take many shots over the top, but usually there are at least 2 or 3 times we will try to catch a S cheating up on PA and let one go. Overall it is a typical B1G pro style O. Lots of presnap shifting, looking to get guys isolated in winnable match ups. The line is adequate but not to UW standards yet. Our Gs really struggle in pass pro and overall we don't see much push when the D loads up at the point of attack. CC has had to really grind for his yards this season, and he is good at getting 2-3 out of nothing to keep the O moving forward. In obvious passing downs we have not been able to keep guys off of the QB. Sometimes he is able to get it out of there on time, but more often he gets overwhelmed if there are defenders in his face. He doesn't have a great pocket sense yet and misses a lot of opportunities to step up into throwing lanes.

We have also faced 3 of the top 10 fronts in all of CFB, plus MSU and Iowa, so it isn't shocking that the O hasn't looked super sharp. What gives Badger fans a lot of hope is that our line is finally getting healthy, as is CC, and hopefully we will get our #2 RB back this week in Deal. And even given the ridiculous schedule and all the injuries, outside of Michigan, our O has been able to move the ball pretty consistently. Our WRs are horribly underrated, Peavy in particular, and the TE is a pro, if the line is able to keep guys off of Hornibrook, the only thing stopping us has been self-inflicted mistakes. I think Husker fans will be a little surprised by the Badger O, it is much more balanced than in recent years.

Nebraska is about to take a huge leap up in competition this week. UW hasn't looked great at times this year but that is in large part because we have played LSU, Michigan, MSU, Iowa and Ohio State. Even the 'bad' teams in there have multiple NFL starters and are coming off 12 win seasons. Meanwhile Nebraska has also looked pretty 'meh' for much of the season while playing teams that UW routinely beats by 4 TDs (Indiana, Illinois, Purdue) and whose signature win is over a 2 win Oregon squad that is giving up nearly 50 points a game. Of course the Huskers have a chance to win this one and have been much improved on the field, not to mention the general air about the program. I just don't see it happening in Madison on Freakfest. If you think Madison has been hostile before, this weekend will be a whole other level (in the city, the actually game atmosphere will be hard pressed to ever top the first one) and the energy should be through the roof. Be prepared, all joking aside. Having watched a bunch of both teams, I just don't see the same level of physicality from Nebraska that I do from UW and I think that will be the difference in a close, swingy game. I'm saying 24-13 UW in a crazy Camp Randall. Good luck to Nebraska and have fun & be safe to all the fans making the trip.

 
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