What are your minimum requirements for a successful season?

[brophog]

Growth is less mental errors and fewer turnovers.  Mental fortitude to win close games 

The real growth is when you stop playing so many close games. Close losses are certainly better than blowouts, but scoring margin is one of the best indicators of future performance for an alternate possession sport like football.

That has gotten lost in this whole conversation about all of the close losses the last few years. The best way to win close games is to not have a close game at all. Don't let it get down to a missed opportunity late in the game. Be better at capitalizing on opportunities early in the game so it doesn't get to that point late in the game.

So many times we see a game that's really close or tied late and point to a failed stop or a turnover or missed kick and we treat it like that was the deciding factor when earlier in the game there was a 10 or 14 point swing that could have occurred.

A lot of things that are stated goals of this team, things we're trying to fix, are helped by playing with a multiple score lead. We want to get more out of our pass rush, get more turnovers and give up fewer big plays. If we have a big lead, then we don't have to be nearly as aggressive on the short stuff because the score and time are on our side. We can sit back in more zone which puts more eyes on the ball. We can get a better pass rush with only 4 because we're no longer as concerned with the run or a screen. On offense your running game always feels better with a lead. You don't have to force tight window throws, you're ok with short gains to run some more clock. So many of our turnovers last year are on forced plays that don't need to happen if you've got a lead.

 

[Undone]

The real growth is when you stop playing so many close games. Close losses are certainly better than blowouts, but scoring margin is one of the best indicators of future performance for an alternate possession sport like football.

That has gotten lost in this whole conversation about all of the close losses the last few years. The best way to win close games is to not have a close game at all. Don't let it get down to a missed opportunity late in the game. Be better at capitalizing on opportunities early in the game so it doesn't get to that point late in the game.

Actually, I think what has maybe gotten lost in this whole conversation are stats and how bad our defense generally was under Frost. From teamrankings.com, this is what I found as our season average offensive points per game:

2023: 18
2022: 21.2
2021: 25.7
2020: 23.1
2019: 28
2018: 28.6

Or more specifically, points scored per game. Probably includes defensive scores.

Anyway, in year one with Rhule, he basically fixes the defense. He takes a bunch of the same players Chinander had and turns them into an actually good unit.

...but then our offensive scoring goes down insanely in Rhule's first year from what would be a cumulative 25.3 points per game average across 2018 - 2022. Quarterback play is the most obvious culprit and basically everybody agrees to just throw the entire season out the door because of it. But, no excuses in year 2 for me. Our points per game average needs to go way up from 18 PPG we saw last year.

Summary: Our defense played so well last year that we realistically should have won way more games. Offense absolutely has to step up this season.

 

[brophog]

Actually, I think what has maybe gotten lost in this whole conversation are stats

Stats (analytics) are good at showing the big picture, but they struggle with answering 'why'. Analytics are very important because they can quickly show you a picture. OK, we suck at this. Watching film gives you the detail, and can help you answer why, but it can struggle to quickly paint the big picture.

The question wasn't the stats that were generated by performance, it was how do you improve the performance. When we're looking at how to improve from last year, one of Rhule's strengths has been improving on the areas he sought to improve. When he identifies something as a problem, he's generally been pretty successful at improving that from year to year.

 

[DevoHusker]

7-5 or 8-4 regular season would work

 

[Undone]

Stats (analytics) are good at showing the big picture, but they struggle with answering 'why'. Analytics are very important because they can quickly show you a picture. OK, we suck at this. Watching film gives you the detail, and can help you answer why, but it can struggle to quickly paint the big picture.

The question wasn't the stats that were generated by performance, it was how do you improve the performance. When we're looking at how to improve from last year, one of Rhule's strengths has been improving on the areas he sought to improve. When he identifies something as a problem, he's generally been pretty successful at improving that from year to year.

I agree with your second paragraph for sure. What you had said in your other post was this:

The best way to win close games is to not have a close game at all.

And what I was trying to say was simply that if our offense hadn't tanked so hard in its ability to put points on the board last year, some of our three point losses would have probably been one touchdown wins.

Can't have defense winning nine games for you by holding people to, let's say, 10 points or less against teams like Maryland or Minnesota. Offense has to really take off this season, it just has to.

 

[brophog]

And what I was trying to say was simply that if our offense hadn't tanked so hard in its ability to put points on the board last year, some of our three point losses would have probably been one touchdown wins.

Can't have defense winning nine games for you by holding people to, let's say, 10 points or less against teams like Maryland or Minnesota. Offense has to really take off this season, it just has to.

Absolutely agreed.

We, as fans, have fallen into this trap for many, many years where we decide the offense is good, but it's the defense's fault and the next year it's the defense that's good but it's the offense's fault. Rhule's response would be, 'yes, the offense needs to get a lot better, but if we got off the field on this third down or didn't give up that big play or we made that kick'.

 

[Mavric]

Actually, I think what has maybe gotten lost in this whole conversation are stats and how bad our defense generally was under Frost. From teamrankings.com, this is what I found as our season average points per game:

2023: 18
2022: 21.2
2021: 25.7
2020: 23.1
2019: 28
2018: 28.6

In year one with Rhule, he basically fixes the defense. He takes a bunch of the same players Chinander had and turns them into an actually good unit.

...but then our scoring goes down insanely in Rhule's first year from what would be a cumulative 25.3 points per game average across 2018 - 2022. Quarterback play is the most obvious culprit and basically everybody agrees to just throw the entire season out the door because of it. But, no excuses in year 2 for me. Our points per game average needs to go way up from 18 PPG we saw last year.

Summary: Our defense played so well last year that we realistically should have won way more games. Offense absolutely has to step up this season.

I prefer to look at defenses on a Yards Per Play Allowed basis.  There are a ton of things that can skew Points Allowed stats, not the least of which is our offense turning the ball over a lot.

Frost's defenses weren't great but he inherited an abysmal defense - #109 in the country in 2017 in YPPA.  We were steadily getting better, though never great.  And, interestingly, for the pub that Busch go, we were actually not very good on defense, although that is definitely skewed by how bad the first four games were.

Below is what our defense allowed for YPPA compared to the average of our opponents for the same year.  Negative numbers in the right column are better as we held opponents under their season average.  Frost's last full year defense (2021) was better than all but the best of Pelini's defenses.  Last year was even better than that, trailing only 2009 and 2010 by this metric.

YEAR - YPP - OYPP - DIFF
2003 - 4.3 - 5.15 -(0.85)

2004 - 5.0 - 4.91 - 0.09
2005 - 4.6 - 4.85 -(0.25)
2006 - 5.2 - 5.38 -(0.18)
2007 - 6.0 - 5.53 - 0.47

2008 - 5.4 - 5.41 -(0.01)
2009 - 3.9 - 5.21 -(1.31)
2010 - 4.5 - 5.29 -(0.79)
2011 - 5.2 - 5.51 -(0.31)
2012 - 5.3 - 5.48 -(0.18)
2013 - 4.9 - 5.36 -(0.46)
2014 - 5.2 - 5.53 -(0.33)

2015 - 5.7 - 5.28 - 0.42
2016 - 5.4 - 5.26 - 0.14

2017 - 6.3 - 5.37 - 0.93

2018 - 5.8 - 5.51 - 0.29

2019 - 5.6 - 5.33 - 0.27

2020 - 5.3 - 5.36 -(0.06)

2021 - 5.2 - 5.67 -(0.47)

2022 - 5.5 - 5.03 - 0.47

2023 - 4.4 - 5.01 -(0.61)

 

[deedsker]

Frost's last full year defense (2021) was better than all but the best of Pelini's defenses.  Last year was even better than that, trailing only 2009 and 2010 by this metric.

Eh, Frost/Chinander were to blame for 2022 as a whole. When Georgia Southern pointed once for the whole game and put up 640 yards, we all knew it was on them. How much worse would that metric have been if Frost/Chinander finish out the season?

The 2021 team, if I recall correctly, a large number of multi year starters. Once the core group is released and training and development are exposed, the flood gates opened.

 

[broganreynik]

For me to perceive the season as successful, a bowl game is where I'd start.

Otherwise, I'd say just having our losses be because the other team beat us, not ourselves. I know that's hard to quantify though lol

 

[The Dude]

Actually, I think what has maybe gotten lost in this whole conversation are stats and how bad our defense generally was under Frost. From teamrankings.com, this is what I found as our season average points per game:

2023: 18
2022: 21.2
2021: 25.7
2020: 23.1
2019: 28
2018: 28.6

In year one with Rhule, he basically fixes the defense. He takes a bunch of the same players Chinander had and turns them into an actually good unit.

I agree with your post, but we mustn't forget Bill Busch's contributions.    That 2022 average was 38 until Busch turned it around in about 2 weeks time.

 

[Undone]

@The Dude, @Mavric: I didn't type out my thoughts very well. I was actually listing out our offensive points per game stats. Not points allowed. Sorry about that!