What did we learn Illinois edition

[lo country]

@lo country: I had zero complaints about what we did on offense in the first three games - including in the second half against Colorado.

Taking out the garbage sack yardage in overtime, we put up around 380 yards of offense against a decent defense. We attacked in the end zone and the red zone more than Illinois did.

But the inability to punch it in with short yardage running was really the biggest problem on offense in that one for me. The passing game moved the chains pretty much all night, no complaints there.

It's hard to argue with those stats.. That said, I have liked a lot of what we have done on offense over the first 4 games.  The one area I wish we were better at appears to be one of his historical weaknesses (imo)- commitment to running the football with success.  He is historically a pass first OC and I don't see that changing anytime soon with DR under center.       

The inability to get the tough yards is my concern.  It was similar under Frost. Last 1000 yard rusher was Oz in 2018 IIRC.  While we moved the ball well our 1st 3 games, UTEP, CU and NIU were not the calibre of Illinois.  Against better team thos offense sputters and stalls.  I expressed concern and still have them over our lack of offensive productions.  Yes, Rhule wants t get a lead and play it safe, but that's in complete contrast to last year when he wanted to run for 75 yards in the 4th and deliver body blows.  I think the lack of production has been partly on Satt's inability to adjust or going away from what was working in order to "fool" the defense to adjust wrong at half.  Again being too cute.  I have no issue with a more pass oriented pro style O, but use more power to compliment that.  An HB/FB, heavier sets.  Traps and draws.  Illinois crowded the box to make DR win with his arm somewhat negating the run game.  Without a dual threat QB hinders it even more so.  Satt has yet to find play calling to attack that.  Although the toss to Neylor was great.  Again, I fully admit my bias. Rhule had mentioned San Fran as an example to emulate. I'm good with that.  But we are a ways off from that.

 

[Undone]

The inability to get the tough yards is my concern.

Agreed, it's my concern as well.

I've also just been trying lately to inject a little more nuance into the analysis around play calling. Not trying to insult anyone here at all, but let's maybe analyze the claim of "getting too cute." It's again a black & white setup where you either "get too cute" or you don't.

Maybe what's happening is that in scrimmages our coaches are having our 1's on offense go up against our 1's on defense in short yardage running plays, and our offense is consistently failing. Then we play a quarter and a half against a decent conference opponent and, lo and behold, we're failing in short yardage running situations.

Would we really expect Satterfield to keep calling runs in those situations?

It's the play caller's job to basically do these two things, in my opinion:

1. Call plays that take into consideration risk & reward and also the probability of one thing picking up a first down/touchdown versus other decisions.
   
2. Calling plays that make the most of your team's skill sets.
   

So for all I know, we're failing in short yardage running situations consistently in scrimmages but we're succeeding more with passes in those same down & distance scenarios.

If that's correct, then I'm starting to agree with some people here about the decision to throw on that 3rd & 3 from their 21 with 3:10 left to go.

But where I'm disappointed is that the staff had an entire offseason to get us better at punching the ball forward with every player not named Ricky Haarberg, and it seems like they didn't do a very good job.

 

[soup]

Agreed, it's my concern as well.

I've also just been trying lately to inject a little more nuance into the analysis around play calling. Not trying to insult anyone here at all, but let's maybe analyze the claim of "getting too cute." It's again a black & white setup where you either "get too cute" or you don't.

Maybe what's happening is that in scrimmages our coaches are having our 1's on offense go up against our 1's on defense in short yardage running plays, and our offense is consistently failing. Then we play a quarter and a half against a decent conference opponent and, lo and behold, we're failing in short yardage running situations.

Would we really expect Satterfield to keep calling runs in those situations?

It's the play caller's job to basically do these two things, in my opinion:

1. Call plays that take into consideration risk & reward and also the probability of one thing picking up a first down/touchdown versus other decisions.
   
2. Calling plays that make the most of your team's skill sets.
   

So for all I know, we're failing in short yardage running situations consistently in scrimmages but we're succeeding more with passes in those same down & distance scenarios.

If that's correct, then I'm starting to agree with some people here about the decision to throw on that 3rd & 3 from their 21 with 3:10 left to go.

But where I'm disappointed is that the staff had an entire offseason to get us better at punching the ball forward with every player not named Ricky Haarberg, and it seems like they didn't do a very good job.

Is the bolded something that you can just "fix" in an off season?  It takes a commitment to building a team built for that.  We are seeing signs that is happening, but we just aren't there yet. We need a RB that can actually make something out of nothing, and not get tackled by his shoestring.  It feels like that is our biggest issue right now.  There are gaps to run into, but first sign of contact and our RBs fall down.  I'd be curious what our YAC stats are the past few years.  (I'd look them up, but really have no idea where to even find that)

 

[Undone]

We need a RB that can actually make something out of nothing, and not get tackled by his shoestring.  It feels like that is our biggest issue right now.  There are gaps to run into, but first sign of contact and our RBs fall down.  I'd be curious what our YAC stats are the past few years.  (I'd look them up, but really have no idea where to even find that)

I completely agree with this.

 

[lo country]

Agreed, it's my concern as well.

I've also just been trying lately to inject a little more nuance into the analysis around play calling. Not trying to insult anyone here at all, but let's maybe analyze the claim of "getting too cute." It's again a black & white setup where you either "get too cute" or you don't.

Maybe what's happening is that in scrimmages our coaches are having our 1's on offense go up against our 1's on defense in short yardage running plays, and our offense is consistently failing. Then we play a quarter and a half against a decent conference opponent and, lo and behold, we're failing in short yardage running situations.

Would we really expect Satterfield to keep calling runs in those situations?

It's the play caller's job to basically do these two things, in my opinion:

1. Call plays that take into consideration risk & reward and also the probability of one thing picking up a first down/touchdown versus other decisions.
   
2. Calling plays that make the most of your team's skill sets.
   

So for all I know, we're failing in short yardage running situations consistently in scrimmages but we're succeeding more with passes in those same down & distance scenarios.

If that's correct, then I'm starting to agree with some people here about the decision to throw on that 3rd & 3 from their 21 with 3:10 left to go.

But where I'm disappointed is that the staff had an entire offseason to get us better at punching the ball forward with every player not named Ricky Haarberg, and it seems like they didn't do a very good job.

Good info.  I always appreciate your responses.  Good point about practices.  We don't see them, but it is frustrating we don't have a guy that can hit the hole 2 times and get the yards needed.  Especially when chasing 3 was the mantra and we were and still appear to be lacking in the kicking dept.  I am not a fan of rotating backs and it appears we have settled on Dowdell, but he jumps into the LOS at times and seems to try to speed to the edge instead of getting upfield.  Not sure of he is the "best" back yet.  Again, we have missed on a lot more than we hit on since Bo was here.  Honest question.  Any idea why the drop off in RB talent? I'll include guys not panning out like Washington/Bell etc  in addition to guys who stayed on, but never became "that guy".  I miss those days tbh of having a back that could take it to the house every play and/or make holes and get the yardage.  I'll try to find YAC on our RB's this season.

 

[Undone]

Good info.  I always appreciate your responses.  Good point about practices.  We don't see them, but it is frustrating we don't have a guy that can hit the hole 2 times and get the yards needed.  Especially when chasing 3 was the mantra and we were and still appear to be lacking in the kicking dept.  I am not a fan of rotating backs and it appears we have settled on Dowdell, but he jumps into the LOS at times and seems to try to speed to the edge instead of getting upfield.  Not sure of he is the "best" back yet.  Again, we have missed on a lot more than we hit on since Bo was here.  Honest question.  Any idea why the drop off in RB talent? I'll include guys not panning out like Washington/Bell etc  in addition to guys who stayed on, but never became "that guy".  I miss those days tbh of having a back that could take it to the house every play and/or make holes and get the yardage.  I'll try to find YAC on our RB's this season.

+1. Totally agree about the kicking game and the rotating backs thing. And I said before the season began that I felt like Rhule saying we were going to rotate all four in game one was a clear sign that none of them were really that good heading into this season, because we knew how good 3 out of the 4 were (but we hadn't seen Dowdell play for our team yet).

Now that we've seen him play for us, Dowdell has had a couple flashes but has also shown some signs of things to be concerned about, just like you said.

I assume that Mike Riley killed off our RB recruiting. I was hyped on Maurice Washington and I think if he had been able to control himself and added a few pounds he would have been really special. Anthony Grant was a serviceable guy also.

I think Rahmir is the best option.

 

[VedderHusker]

The “we don't have a guy that can hit the hole 2 times and get the yards needed” narrative may be a perception but it’s just not reality. Sometimes rushes are stuffed but that’s part of the game for every team. Here is every rush from the game by series excluding sacks - with added context in parentheses.

1st series

3

2nd series

4

1 (1st &10)

0 (2nd & 1)

1 (3rd & 1, converted)

2 (1st & goal at 5)

3rd series

14

4

13

4th series

3

9

3 (3rd & 1, converted)

5th series

3

1 (3rd & 1, converted)

9

9

4

0 (2nd & 6)

Halftime

6th series

4

1 (2nd & 6)

7th series 

1 (1st & goal at 2)

8th series

no rushes

9th series (missed FG)

4

2

5

7

-2 (1st &10) (last rush of game)

We converted three 3rd & 1s by rushing. We attempted 2 short yardage rushes in a row only once and converted. Near the goal line we attempted to rush twice but on 1st downs only.  Satt obviously favors Dylan passing near the goal line (and who can blame him for that). 
 

Not rushing on 3rd and 3 at the 21 when we needed to burn clock was bad game management, regardless of the outcome of that drive and regardless of who made that call. 

 

[Mavric]

Inb4 the "everything is hypothetical" comments.

See.  It's fun to talk about the hypotheticals.  

 

[twofittyonred]

Great- so the 2 running backs averaged 3.79 yards per carry, thats not a great average yards per carry lol.  Right now Iowa is averaging 5.95, Indiana is averaging 5.74, and Michigan is averaging 5.57 yards per carry this year for a point of reference as to what the top running teams are putting up in the big10...

To add to things, our OL was dinged up- so despite the stats saying we weren't rushing great, the eye test showing a struggling running attack and being a couple guys down- we should've just ran the ball again in a short field scenario against a stacked box?  

so now we are looking at yearly overall stats as opposed to that single situation..??    you must be correct...  

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Mavric]

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[Undone]

I feel like the majority of people's reactions are that our offense was more to blame than the defense. It tends to go that way when it's a close game around that 24-28 point mark in regulation. You get past that 28 point mark up to 30 and then I feel like when you lose, people are more likely to blame the defense.

But man, we really let them score a couple easy touchdowns.

 

[BigRedBuster]

I feel like the majority of people's reactions are that our offense was more to blame than the defense. It tends to go that way when it's a close game around that 24-28 point mark in regulation. You get past that 28 point mark up to 30 and then I feel like when you lose, people are more likely to blame the defense.

But man, we really let them score a couple easy touchdown's.

I used to have a rule of thumb that if you lose and the other team scores less than 21, the problem probably was on offense. If you score more than 21 and lose, it’s probably on the defense. 
 

Now, that should be more like 28-30.  
 

I would agree that in this game, our defense was a bigger problem. 

 

[lo country]

A quick review of some statistical categories were pretty good.  Passing completion % at #8.  Huge for a true freshman QB with our OL.  We are currently 91st in penalties per game.  Total D we are 30th and total offense at 66 (despite scoring a lot of points).  Red zone D 45 and Red Zone O is 83.  

Statistically speaking we pass really well and D appears to be holding up their end despite the Illinois game.  O appears to continue to be a struggle.  Passing Offense ranking 45 and rushing offense at 87....  KO return defense we are 98 and punt return defense we are 116....  Punt returns we are 79 and KO returns we are 36.  

Less penalties and recognize that our special teams still suck will go along way.  Is the running game woes OL, play calling, RB's.....I'm unsure how we ranked through 4 games last year, but penalties and ST's hurt last year and seem to be our worst areas now. 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/699

 

[krc1995]

Don’t know if this is kept as an official stat, but it feels like we must lead CFB in false starts for the last 5-ish years.  They seem to come at the most critical times, too.