Who should our next HC be?

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Mavric said:
You are conflating "competitive games" with "ranked wins."  It isn't "ranked teams are good, everyone else is bad."

First, they did beat a ranked team.  Texas finished the year ranked.  Just because they didn't happen to be ranked the week that Baylor played them doesn't mean they were a bad team.

Second, a lot of why they didn't beat any ranked teams (at the time) is because they only played one team that was ranked when they played them.  They played Oklahoma - who finished as the #7 team in the country - twice, losing by three both times.  That seems like a pretty good accomplishment in year three.

Third, another reason they didn't have a chance to play many ranked teams was because they and Oklahoma was beating everyone.  The next tier in the Big XII was all solid but they kind of beat up on each other.  Kansas State was a solid 8-5 team that beat #5 Oklahoma and #23 Iowa State.  Oklahoma State was also 8-5 and beat #24 Kansas State and #23 Iowa State.  Texas was 8-5 that only lost to eventual-national-champion LSU by 7, beat #16 Kansas State and thumped #11 Utah.  Those are all pretty solid teams that Baylor beat, they just didn't happen to be ranked the week Baylor played them.

This entire argument is really missing the forest for the trees.
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That's some good info there!  It's amazing how stats can look different if you dig a little deeper.

 
We could do worse then Rhule. He has shown he could take two programs and get them from dumpster fires to competitive winners winning 9-10 games a year. 

If he could do it elsewhere and did it here I would be happy! 

Temple 

2-10

6-6

10-4

10-3

Baylor 

1-11

7-6

11-3

 
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Mavric said:
You are conflating "competitive games" with "ranked wins."  It isn't "ranked teams are good, everyone else is bad."

First, they did beat a ranked team.  Texas finished the year ranked.  Just because they didn't happen to be ranked the week that Baylor played them doesn't mean they were a bad team.

Second, a lot of why they didn't beat any ranked teams (at the time) is because they only played one team that was ranked when they played them.  They played Oklahoma - who finished as the #7 team in the country - twice, losing by three both times.  That seems like a pretty good accomplishment in year three.

Third, another reason they didn't have a chance to play many ranked teams was because they and Oklahoma was beating everyone.  The next tier in the Big XII was all solid but they kind of beat up on each other.  Kansas State was a solid 8-5 team that beat #5 Oklahoma and #23 Iowa State.  Oklahoma State was also 8-5 and beat #24 Kansas State and #23 Iowa State.  Texas was 8-5 that only lost to eventual-national-champion LSU by 7, beat #16 Kansas State and thumped #11 Utah.  Those are all pretty solid teams that Baylor beat, they just didn't happen to be ranked the week Baylor played them.

This entire argument is really missing the forest for the trees.
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Your comment is money $$$. Let's not forget the success Aranda has had with Rhule's players. If Rhule wouldn't have been courted by the NFL, I think it safe to say Rhule may be coaching somewhere elite at this point and we wouldn't be talking about him as an option. The NFL dirtied up his resume perhaps to our gain. 

 
YetiJR said:
I guess what I'm getting at is that his entire time at Baylor he went 0-11 against ranked teams in 3 years. I just want to be able to win some of the competitive games, and I'm not sure Rhule has shown he can. His ranked wins were 21. East Carolina & 20. Navy, for a total of 2-5 against ranked teams at Temple. His record was 2-16 or .125, so I was wrong on the total win percentage. 

This just isn't a sexy hire for me, and is underwhelming with where we are at as a program. I just want the best for us as fans, and for the team. 
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I can appreciate shooting for the stars but, being realistic, we have to learn to walk before we can run.

I really like the Rhule hire. He checks the most important box imo…..bringing dumpster fires to respectability. And we don’t have to beat ranked teams to win the B1G West. Not saying I don’t want to beat the Michigans and tOSU’s but at this point that is a concern for a few years down the road. Sure would be nice to be able to handle Minny, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, teams like that before we start worrying about the playoffs.

 
YetiJR said:
I'd be interested in seeing the article. I can see a lot of people disagree with my opinion, and that's okay, we all want to the best for the program. We'll have to see how the cards play, and see who ends up as the coach. 
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It is an older article, but I assuming some of the info still rings true.  And I am not dismissing the fact that he hasn't beaten a ranked team.  I think that, amongst other factors, should be looked at.  ie Recruiting, development, bowls, W-L record, how many stops in your career, even AA, NFL drafts, individual winners or watch list for post season awards...

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2137102-top-college-football-coaches-who-excel-and-struggle-against-top-25-teams

 
SIAP

Here's an article about Rhule at Temple what to expect at Baylor

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/12/6/13856362/the-new-rhule-of-law-in-waco-matt-rhule-baylor-bears

Rhule’s personal specialty is on defense, where he’s been coaching for a long time and where he’s inheriting some solid pieces in Waco. The Temple defense was based out of a 4-3 construct but was very multiple. They’d bring a lot of different pressures and mix zone and man coverage afforded by a well coached and veteran secondary.

Disguised looks, press coverage on passing downs, and very deep safeties are calling cards for Rhule.

Culturally Rhule was all about forming a physical, tough team that would win with defense and field position. Single-digit jersey numbers are reserved for the toughest players and much of the team was recruited either from in-state Pennsylvania or from New Jersey. There are zero Texans on the Temple football roster and many of the players were not considered great talents even for the AAC, but Rhule’s culture and eye for talent seemed to put Temple in great shape within their league.
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Additionally, you can compare that article to the other article about how he eventually embraced RPO as part of their offense. 

 
JJ Husker said:
I can appreciate shooting for the stars but, being realistic, we have to learn to walk before we can run.

I really like the Rhule hire. He checks the most important box imo…..bringing dumpster fires to respectability. And we don’t have to beat ranked teams to win the B1G West. Not saying I don’t want to beat the Michigans and tOSU’s but at this point that is a concern for a few years down the road. Sure would be nice to be able to handle Minny, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, teams like that before we start worrying about the playoffs.
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I wonder if this next hire, is the "get us respectable guy" and hope that he turns into "The Guy" vs we are after "The Guy" from the jump. If this makes senses. We start beating those teams, I'd think that we could then start to get better recruits and then start to stack some quality wins.  But as you mentioned, I'd take 6-6 and bowling.  And no I am not ok with that crappy season either.  But gotta stack wins and build from there.

 
lo country said:
I wonder if this next hire, is the "get us respectable guy" and hope that he turns into "The Guy" vs we are after "The Guy" from the jump. If this makes senses. We start beating those teams, I'd think that we could then start to get better recruits and then start to stack some quality wins.  But as you mentioned, I'd take 6-6 and bowling.  And no I am not ok with that crappy season either.  But gotta stack wins and build from there.
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I get you. I think Rhule is the best guy we could get right now. And that isn’t saying anybody better would turn us down. He’s been at the top of my list ever since Carolina fired him. Urban Meyer is maybe better but I don’t believe he was going anywhere (maybe Notre Dame at some time in the future) and Rhule has him beat by a mile on the ethics front. IMO this is the absolute best hire we could’ve made.

And I’m not worried about the ranked wins thing. @Mavric has addressed why that isn’t a concern. People also forget that Pelini was plenty satisfied with 9 wins and showed no desire to get beyond the 1-2 embarrassing blowouts that was part of the deal. Rhule does not strike me as the type to “settle in” to 9 wins being enough.

 
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JJ Husker said:
I can appreciate shooting for the stars but, being realistic, we have to learn to walk before we can run.

I really like the Rhule hire. He checks the most important box imo…..bringing dumpster fires to respectability. And we don’t have to beat ranked teams to win the B1G West. Not saying I don’t want to beat the Michigans and tOSU’s but at this point that is a concern for a few years down the road. Sure would be nice to be able to handle Minny, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, teams like that before we start worrying about the playoffs.
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You and I are in complete agreement.  NU is a complete wreck as a program, so it would be great to have a coach who has experience rebuilding programs and setting that program up for long-term success.  It may very well possible that Rhule (or someone else) may have a ceiling of 8, 9, or 10 wins, but we need to stop acting like that's "not good enough".  NU has been one of the worst football programs in Power 5 football over the past 8 years, so yes we need to get back to winning seasons before we should think about winning championships.

 
I would be happy with Rhule. 

A lot of folks, myself included, have pointed out his record against ranked teams and expressed concern. This program is such a flaming pile of dogs#!t right now that I would crawl over a mile of broken glass to be in a position where we are bickering about an 8-4 season with losses to 4 ranked teams. 

Rhule would be a solid hire. 

 
Lil' Red said:
Rhule's college résumé was good enough to land him an NFL job.  I don't understand why we should have higher standards than an NFL team.
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So did Mike Riley and before him, Bill Callahan ... The HC needs a strong staff to be successful regardless of what level they're coaching at. Rhule's success will only go as far as his staff. Coaching at this level is (and must be) a cutthroat job. Head coaches need to learn they're loyalty to staff's must be tied to success on the field. I like MJ because he showed he can put his personal friendship aside and make hard decisions. If Rhule is our new HC and he, like Callahan, like Riley, like Frost can't/won't keep sound, successful staffs then he too will fail. If the staff's go out to recruit players to come in and compete then coaches should also know they also can be replaced. 

 
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