Why should this MSU game be any different? Stats!!!

[SpartanMacks]

Our offense is definitely better this year. Whether you want to go by stats or eye test, or both, it's definitely improved. The fact Bell carried us was the REASON we were so bad. He was all we had, and as a result, our play-calling was extremely predictable. This year, we're spreading the ball around more to various receivers and getting more backs into the mix. Our o-line is finally healthy and gelling. Perhaps more significantly than anything else, our WRs are finally catching the ball and making plays. Cook is a big upgrade over Maxwell. Believe me, we're better. Not saying we're anything to be feared, but we're much better than last season.

Carry on.

MSU is only slightly better in offensive yardage this year than last: 360 yards/game in 2012 and 380 yards/game in 2013 so far. Scoring is up more than a TD per game: 20 ppg vs 29 ppg this year (that includes defensive scores which I believe MSU has more of this season than last but not sure if that is significant or not).

Not sure if that makes MSU all that much better offensively. I've watched MSU very little, but my impression is that the offense plays much better at home than away. What's the Spartan fans' views on MSU playing on the road and their offense in general?

Not a big difference. Cook was great against Iowa and Illinois, but struggled vs. ND (albeit his first ever road start). The defense is spectacular either way. Weather seems to affect our offense more than home/away.

This year's offense has been able to churn out some long drives and score to win out games, something that last year we couldn't do. However, in conference play, we are averaging more rushing YPG than last year (193 vs. 139) with similar passing YPG (216 vs. 213). We're also not really turning the ball over (3 INTs by Cook, 6 total lost fumbles - only 2 in conference play). And our scoring O has improved by nearly 10 points/game from last year.

 

[jamrinelli]

The most disturbing stat I have looked up this week is the W-L record of both MSU's and our opponents this year. MSU opponents have a record of a whopping 38-46, while our opponents have an amazing record of 39-43. At that rate I throw ALL stats out the window besides wins and losses. I am hoping we are able to add another win in our column this week!!! GBR!!!!

 

[SpartanMacks]

The most disturbing stat I have looked up this week is the W-L record of both MSU's and our opponents this year. MSU opponents have a record of a whopping 38-46, while our opponents have an amazing record of 39-43. At that rate I throw ALL stats out the window besides wins and losses. I am hoping we are able to add another win in our column this week!!! GBR!!!!

Confernece

• Nebraska's Conference opponents are 6-20 when combined.
  
• MSU's Conference opponents are 7-20 when combined.
  

Non Conference:

• Nebraska's opponents are 17-20
  
• MSU's opponents are 18-20
  

SOS is a dumb argument either way. Nobody has playing a great team. I read an article a couple weeks ago (pre-Michigan) saying that MSU was holding offenses to ~60% of their average offensive output, 1st in the nation. Stats are kind of useless in a game like this, matchups matter more.

 

[Landlord]

I have to wonder, why should this MSU game be any different than the past games we've had with MSU? They've had a stout defense since we've come to the B1G and we've beat them the past two years.

2011-2012: MSU is ranked 9th in the nation, we were ranked 13th in the nation: We win at our house 24-3, we absolutely dominated them from what I remember.

2012-2013: MSU isn't ranked, we're ranked 21st in the nation: Martinez leads a comeback late in the game and we win at their house 28-24.

MSU total defensive ranking: finished 6th in the country in 2011.

MSU total defensive ranking: finished 4th in the country in 2012.

MSU total defensive ranking: currently 1st in the country in 2013 they are ranked 16th in the nation through the BCS

Our offensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: Total offense 35th in the nation

2012-2013: Total offense 15th in the nation

2013-2014: Total offense 42nd in the nation

Their defensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 2nd in the nation.

2012-2013: 5th in the nation.

2013-2014: 1st in the nation (Game yet to be played)

Our defensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 42nd in the nation

2012-2013: 26th in the nation

2013-2014: 41st in the nation

Their offensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 66th in the nation

2012-2013: 96th in the nation

2013-2014: 86th in the nation

So please................someone tell me why I care that they are the #1 defense in the nation? I completely agree that it will be a close game and a hard fought game. But, from what I can see the 2011-2012 game is the closest comparable to our current game coming up on Saturday and I fail to see why I should get wrapped up in their defense. I'm not trying to be a kool-aid drinker, I'm not, the stats are what they are. This was all taken from the NCAA website. Someone could probably break things down more than I've done, but I didn't want to go through all that work about rushing defense, passing offense, etc. etc. Thoughts?

Honestly, MSU has utterly dominated the following ranked offenses in the nation:

• Western Michigan - 111th
  
• South Florida - 123rd
  
• Youngstown State - FCS No rank
  
• Notre Dame - 69th
  
• Iowa - 77th
  
• Indiana - 8th
  
• Purdue - 122nd
  
• Illinois - 56th
  
• Michigan - 86th
  

So they've faced a single offense that was even in the top 50 of the entire country. That number 8 offense of Indiana is 12th in the nation in passing and 33rd in the nation in rushing. Nebraska is 14th in the nation in rushing and 42nd in the nation in total offense.

In other words, they have not seen a rushing offense yet like the Huskers will bring to them...they haven't even come close...and they've dominated vastly less talented teams.

I like the Huskers chances...

A few of those offenses were good rushing offenses, until they played Michigan State.

For some reason our offense, with three starting linemen lost, Martinez done, and hobbled receivers, with Ameer Abdullah as the only explosive threat lately, just does not seem to me the kind of product to make MSU quake in their boots.

We're 42nd in the nation in total offense. A lot of that is growing pains with new quarterbacks and hopefully (I think) we are better and more capable than the statistics say we are, and we take another step forward Saturday, but man. We are seriously beat up and having a tough time.

 

[Redux]

You are only focusing on their defense vs. our offense. That's half of the entire picture. We beat them in 2011 with our defense vs. their offense.

Their offense is better this year. Ours is worse.

Their defense is better this year than the prior two years, and we have a freshman quarterback (who has shown in his limited time, the ability to be completely overwhelmed and lost by exotic defensive packages) instead of Taylor Martinez, a patchjob of random second string linemen and three straight weeks of poor offensive performance against defenses not even remotely as close to MSU's level.

I screwed up. I meant Kirk Cousins the year before, not Mawell. My bad. Cousins was stellar, Maxwell not so much. Yeah the fact that Bell carried the team (and opposing teams.........into the endzone) made them pretty one di.ensional. thats what took Nebraska off gaurd last year, the fact they were having success passing. Nebraska will be prepared for this game, no doubt about it. Still looking like a 20-13 type of win.

I dont believe their offense is better this year. Last year it was carried by LeVeon Bell, year before by Andrew Maxwell. Who is carying it this year? Nobody really. They went what 3 weeks with their D scoring more than their offense could. They hung a bunch on who Iowa and Michigan. Nothing to sneeze at but hardly imposing. We are built to control their offense.

Our offense is definitely better this year. Whether you want to go by stats or eye test, or both, it's definitely improved. The fact Bell carried us was the REASON we were so bad. He was all we had, and as a result, our play-calling was extremely predictable. This year, we're spreading the ball around more to various receivers and getting more backs into the mix. Our o-line is finally healthy and gelling. Perhaps more significantly than anything else, our WRs are finally catching the ball and making plays. Cook is a big upgrade over Maxwell. Believe me, we're better. Not saying we're anything to be feared, but we're much better than last season.

Carry on.

 

[SpartanMacks]

A few of those offenses were good rushing offenses, until they played Michigan State.

For some reason our offense, with three starting linemen lost, Martinez done, and hobbled receivers, with Ameer Abdullah as the only explosive threat lately, just does not seem to me the kind of product to make MSU quake in their boots.

We're 42nd in the nation in total offense. A lot of that is growing pains with new quarterbacks and hopefully (I think) we are better and more capable than the statistics say we are, and we take another step forward Saturday, but man. We are seriously beat up and having a tough time.

Which ones? I have the splits pulled up for every single one of their opponents and I can't find anyone rushing close to what the Huskers do.

Off the top of my head, I think Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan were top 30 offenses before playing us. Iowa was top 25 in rushing O but that was likely heavily skewed by the non-conf schedule. I might be wrong on those teams though.

This is the article I was referring to earlier: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/10/26/5029580/college-football-rankings-baylor-offense-michigan-state-defense

 

[Hercules]

I have to wonder, why should this MSU game be any different than the past games we've had with MSU?

In 2011, they abandoned their run game in favor of throwing jump balls into double coverage all game long with Kirk Cousins. They know who they are on offense now, and they will commit to the running game, like they did last year.

In 2012, the only reason we won that game was Taylor Martinez. They shut down every other part of our offense. The only thing they couldn't shut down was Taylor's legs, and we don't have that any more, not to mention the other offensive starters who are missing.

 

[lo country]

It is at home. BO knows their O. Our D, contrary to the talking heads and some on this board is for whatever reason, leaps and bounds where we were at the start of the season.

I am not worried one bit about stopping their O. I am worried about our O being able to impose our will. We need to get the running game going to get their safeties out of the box. Our OL will have a hell of a time stopping their DL and blitzes. We are down 3 starters on the OL. This would hurt any team in the country......If they crowd the box AND give TA time, in single coverage, I trust Quince to beast any DB in single coverage. Same with Bell.

I would go with misdirection, the option, draws and traps to negate the speed and make them over pursue. Would love if Beck actually realized that a RB can catch passes out of the backfield. A healthy dose of the diamond and TE's across the middle would be great as well.

D just needs to keep up the pressure, get them uncomfortable in the pockets and get some TO's.

Statistically, we are improving on D IMO. Sadly, our lack of D at the beginning makes it a long slow road to improvement. Our O, without Martinez is not as versatile, BUT IMO, no teams feared his arm anyway. They loaded the box just like Sparty will. Beck will have to call the game of his life to keep TA upright and get our O rolling.

 

[Lyons in the Sea of Red.]

We will struggle to score in this game. I'm not to optimistic of our chances. Our offense has not been good.

 

[Hercules]

I am worried about their offense. They're a power team, and the last two times we played power offenses were Minnesota and Wisconsin of last year. Look for Michigan State to use the same blueprint.

 

[jamrinelli]

The most disturbing stat I have looked up this week is the W-L record of both MSU's and our opponents this year. MSU opponents have a record of a whopping 38-46, while our opponents have an amazing record of 39-43. At that rate I throw ALL stats out the window besides wins and losses. I am hoping we are able to add another win in our column this week!!! GBR!!!!

Confernece

• Nebraska's Conference opponents are 22-24 when combined.
  
• MSU's Conference opponents are 20-26 when combined.
  

Non Conference:

• Nebraska's opponents are 17-20
  
• MSU's opponents are 18-20
  

SOS is a dumb argument either way. Nobody has playing a great team. I read an article a couple weeks ago (pre-Michigan) saying that MSU was holding offenses to ~60% of their average offensive output, 1st in the nation. Stats are kind of useless in a game like this, matchups matter more.

You'll notice I quoted the previous poster. It was a response to his post and nothing more.

I didn't conclude it meant anything at all. Just giving him the stats since his numbers were off a bit.

Mine are off a bit???? Look at the stats in conference and you will notice yours are off. I was also saying both teams have played garbage teams and records and stats mean nothing in a game like this..... I put your numbers in bold that were off. You were missing some conference numbers. There is no way both opponents have only played a combined 26 and 27 games so far... But like I said SOS, stats and records mean nothing when no one is playing strong teams.....

 

[Mavric]

I am worried about their offense. They're a power team, and the last two times we played power offenses were Minnesota and Wisconsin of last year. Look for Michigan State to use the same blueprint.

Minnesota yes. When we played Wisconsin the first time last year and they used their regular running game, they got 56 yards rushing. The second game it wasn't their traditional power running that got most of the yards, it was the speed guys on the edge.

 

[JTrain]

I have to wonder, why should this MSU game be any different than the past games we've had with MSU? They've had a stout defense since we've come to the B1G and we've beat them the past two years.

2011-2012: MSU is ranked 9th in the nation, we were ranked 13th in the nation: We win at our house 24-3, we absolutely dominated them from what I remember.

2012-2013: MSU isn't ranked, we're ranked 21st in the nation: Martinez leads a comeback late in the game and we win at their house 28-24.

MSU total defensive ranking: finished 6th in the country in 2011.

MSU total defensive ranking: finished 4th in the country in 2012.

MSU total defensive ranking: currently 1st in the country in 2013 they are ranked 16th in the nation through the BCS

Our offensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: Total offense 35th in the nation

2012-2013: Total offense 15th in the nation

2013-2014: Total offense 42nd in the nation

Their defensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 2nd in the nation.

2012-2013: 5th in the nation.

2013-2014: 1st in the nation (Game yet to be played)

Our defensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 42nd in the nation

2012-2013: 26th in the nation

2013-2014: 41st in the nation

Their offensive ranking at the time of playing them:

2011-2012: 66th in the nation

2012-2013: 96th in the nation

2013-2014: 86th in the nation

So please................someone tell me why I care that they are the #1 defense in the nation? I completely agree that it will be a close game and a hard fought game. But, from what I can see the 2011-2012 game is the closest comparable to our current game coming up on Saturday and I fail to see why I should get wrapped up in their defense. I'm not trying to be a kool-aid drinker, I'm not, the stats are what they are. This was all taken from the NCAA website. Someone could probably break things down more than I've done, but I didn't want to go through all that work about rushing defense, passing offense, etc. etc. Thoughts?

My thoughts are: If any of us could even somewhat accurately predict outcomes by analyzing stats like this, we would have long ago moved to Vegas and made millions. Assuming non of us are millionaires living in Vegas, I say we take the stats with a grain of salt and hold on for a fun ride. I can easily imagine the game going to either extreme.

 

[SpartanMacks]

I am worried about their offense. They're a power team, and the last two times we played power offenses were Minnesota and Wisconsin of last year. Look for Michigan State to use the same blueprint.

We are a power running O, but it's kind of strange. Our OL doesn't really get a ton of push early on or blast open big holes...but we also don't really get pushed back. We're second in the conference in TFL allowed (4.11/game). As the game goes on we tend to wear teams out a bit more due to our huge TOP advantage (2nd in the nation) and then run a little more consistently. In fact:

1st half rushing - 3.84 YPC, 4 TDs

2nd half rushing - 4.91 YPC, 10 TDs

We also utilize a fair amount of jet sweeps with a speedy true freshman RB/WR RJ Shelton. He's used as a decoy sometimes but you'll notice us motioning him across the formation almost every other play.

 

[BIGREDIOWAN]

I am worried about their offense. They're a power team, and the last two times we played power offenses were Minnesota and Wisconsin of last year. Look for Michigan State to use the same blueprint.

We are a power running O, but it's kind of strange. Our OL doesn't really get a ton of push early on or blast open big holes...but we also don't really get pushed back. We're second in the conference in TFL allowed (4.11/game). As the game goes on we tend to wear teams out a bit more due to our huge TOP advantage (2nd in the nation) and then run a little more consistently. In fact:

1st half rushing - 3.84 YPC, 4 TDs

2nd half rushing - 4.91 YPC, 10 TDs

We also utilize a fair amount of jet sweeps with a speedy true freshman RB/WR RJ Shelton. He's used as a decoy sometimes but you'll notice us motioning him across the formation almost every other play.

We're screwed!