Year 2 Regression Under Frost

lo country said:
Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html


 


  •  
Click to expand...
Except the strength of schedule was easy this year as compared last year.  
 

Next year’s schedule looks very tough and  the D will step back next year.  
 

The O should improve next season if we get better QB play, if not Frosts seat will begin to melt.

 
lo country said:
Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html


 


  •  
Click to expand...


Here are some stats I compiled against common competition between 2018 and 2019. Our offensive production went way down in 2019 overall.





2018


Win/Loss


Points Scored


Points Allowed


Total Yards


Yards Allowed




Colorado


L


28


33


565


395




Illinois


W


54


35


606


509




Northwestern


L


31


34


482


487




Ohio State


L


31


36


450


481




Minnesota


W


53


28


659


474




Purdue


L


28


42


582


516




Wisconsin


L


24


41


518


533




Iowa


L


28


31


400


419




Average


 


35.6


35.6


552


485




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




2019


Win/Loss


Points Scored


Points Allowed


Total Yards


Yards Allowed




Colorado


L


31


34


469


464




Illinois


W


42


38


674


299




Northwestern


L


13


10


319


293




Ohio State


L


7


48


231


580




Minnesota


W


7


34


299


450




Purdue


L


27


31


375


449




Wisconsin


L


21


37


493


482




Iowa


L


24


27


284


324




Average


 


21.1


33.1


409


431








 
HuskerNation1 said:
Here are some stats I compiled against common competition between 2018 and 2019. Our offensive production went way down in 2019 overall.





2018


Win/Loss


Points Scored


Points Allowed


Total Yards


Yards Allowed




Colorado


L


28


33


565


395




Illinois


W


54


35


606


509




Northwestern


L


31


34


482


487




Ohio State


L


31


36


450


481




Minnesota


W


53


28


659


474




Purdue


L


28


42


582


516




Wisconsin


L


24


41


518


533




Iowa


L


28


31


400


419




Average


 


35.6


35.6


552


485




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




 


 


 


 


 


 




2019


Win/Loss


Points Scored


Points Allowed


Total Yards


Yards Allowed




Colorado


L


31


34


469


464




Illinois


W


42


38


674


299




Northwestern


L


13


10


319


293




Ohio State


L


7


48


231


580




Minnesota


W


7


34


299


450




Purdue


L


27


31


375


449




Wisconsin


L


21


37


493


482




Iowa


L


24


27


284


324




Average


 


21.1


33.1


409


431
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting this together.  With those games it was a 143 yard drop off the average....Not to beat a dead horse, but did Stan, Oz, Farmer and Foster make that big of a difference?  And 2AM 2.0 playing hurt/off....Statistically, that's a huge step back in year 2.  Imagine if the D had not improved at all....

 
lo country said:
Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html


 


  •  
Click to expand...
Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.

 
SouthLincoln Husker said:
Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.
Click to expand...
I think losing Foster and Farmer hurt more than people realized at first too. We are getting the guys we need to but it will be a bit before they are all ready to make a great unit.

 
SouthLincoln Husker said:
Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.
Click to expand...
I agree we need more playmakers.  IMHO, we won't be truly competitive until we are 2 deep across the board.  At most positions, we have a significant drop off once a starter goes down.  Lack of depth hurt us a lot at kicker, RB, WR, safety.  It also hurt our ability to rotate and keep the starters fresh in games.  Gotta develop the guys we have, not the guys we want....

 
lo country said:
I agree we need more playmakers.  IMHO, we won't be truly competitive until we are 2 deep across the board.  At most positions, we have a significant drop off once a starter goes down.  Lack of depth hurt us a lot at kicker, RB, WR, safety.  It also hurt our ability to rotate and keep the starters fresh in games.  Gotta develop the guys we have, not the guys we want....
Click to expand...
Exactly, Robinson be out really hurt the last couple of games.  No reliable backup. 

 
lo country said:
Thanks for putting this together.  With those games it was a 143 yard drop off the average....Not to beat a dead horse, but did Stan, Oz, Farmer and Foster make that big of a difference?  And 2AM 2.0 playing hurt/off....Statistically, that's a huge step back in year 2.  Imagine if the D had not improved at all....
Click to expand...
This is where im at.  The D wasnt great, but they improved.  Also they got put in tough spots by our offense more games than not.  The stats are nice but they dont tell the whole story.  With the way Frost teams play , they will make our offensive #s look better than reality, and our defensive #s look worse.  Their is no reason our offense should have taken a step back in year 2 of a new system, with the same QB.  We lost Zig and Stan but we gained Mills and Wandale.  We lost Farmer and Foster, but the rest of our OL should have improved with 1 more year.  I dont think this has anything to do with who we lost....  It has more to do with bad coaching and probably more than that, speaks to how much worse AM was.  Its hard to win many games in our style of offense with a bad QB.  With a Milton back their we win 8 games or so.  Actually probably 9.  We still lose to OSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  No way we lose the purdue, indiana, colorado, or Iowa games with a really good QB.  Its even possible we beat Wisconsin and win 10.  Their are people who will hate this post, but a good QB vs a bad QB makes all the difference in an offense like this.  @ UCF, they go 7-5 or so with AM back there instead of Milton who went undefeated.  Watch that season, how many game Milton won them, and how many AM would have lost them.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BigPeterJ said:
This is where im at.  The D wasnt great, but they improved.  Also they got put in tough spots by our offense more games than not.  The stats are nice but they dont tell the whole story.  With the way Frost teams play , they will make our offensive #s look better than reality, and our defensive #s look worse.  Their is no reason our offense should have taken a step back in year 2 of a new system, with the same QB.  We lost Zig and Stan but we gained Mills and Wandale.  We lost Farmer and Foster, but the rest of our OL should have improved with 1 more year.  I dont think this has anything to do with who we lost....  It has more to do with bad coaching and probably more than that, speaks to how much worse AM was.  Its hard to win many games in our style of offense with a bad QB.  With a Milton back their we win 8 games or so.
Click to expand...
But we never had wandale the last 3 or 4 games.  Due lack of depth, mills was wearing out at the end of games.  This year had multiple issues. Not just the qb & coach. 

 
SouthLincoln Husker said:
But we never had wandale the last 3 or 4 games.  Due lack of depth, mills was wearing out at the end of games.  This year had multiple issues. Not just the qb & coach. 
Click to expand...
You have a point about Wandale, but Mills was better at the end of the season than he ever was.  For some reason they didnt give him the ball enough.  Mills is better than we give him credit for.  And you lose players every year, if losing 2 decent OL, a really good WR, and a solid RB is an excuse to be worse the next year than your gonna have that excuse every single year.  Teams frequently lose half of their starters, almost always lose 2 linemen, and dont regress.  

 
BigPeterJ said:
You have a point about Wandale, but Mills was better at the end of the season than he ever was.  For some reason they didnt give him the ball enough.  Mills is better than we give him credit for.  And you lose players every year, if losing 2 decent OL, a really good WR, and a solid RB is an excuse to be worse the next year than your gonna have that excuse every single year.  Teams frequently lose half of their starters, almost always lose 2 linemen, and dont regress.  
Click to expand...
Agree.  Our line got better as the year went on.  Our lack of depth might have been our biggest issue.

 
Back
Top