Your 2022 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Farms said:
I read that same statistical analysis that you're referring to and they basically ran a simulation using all of our statistics 5000 times and only came up with a 3-9 season twice.  The simulations showed the we should have been an 7-7 or 8-4 team.  You could easily point to 3-4 games where one play could have changed the outcome of the game.  Crazy really.
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Ya, I agree.  I mean what the heck is going on with Scott actually having to fire half of his staff, reduce his pay and bring in potentially two possible candidates to replace him?  I mean statistically, we could have gone 11-1.  We are only one player away.  This is a really good team.  We love these guys!  Heck, Trev should have locked him into a new contract and deal just like the old AD after Scott was 4-5 on his way to a 5-7 season.  Scott needs our support, not criticism for his coaching and player development.

In all seriousness, ya, run that simulation 5000 times and only get 3-9 twice ... and what I hear is crediting to Frost that he has just had bad luck.  I mean, why don't we just throw in that the B1G is scheduling us to lose, the refs won't give us a call and the media is biased and against us.  It feels like "cry me a river" and "the lawyer screwed me" instead of the product on the field.  What "win" felt good to you?  For me, it was NW and the way we ran it and then had no fumbles or interceptions. Yet, it is how the team performed in the tight games where we just seek to find a way to break down and implode.  That stuff can't be statistically compiled.  It can't even be coached.  

So, if it is all unfair, and statistically just impossible, how unlucky of Frost to go 4-7, 5-8, 3-5, and 3-9.  You would think it would just be a "strange" year.  But, it's every year  ... and then folks pull out one year, show the 5000 similation and prescribe that it's just an anomaly.  Maybe he is the Andy Dufrane of college football and its all just unfair.  

I suppose that means that 4-8, 5-7 or 6-6 is improvement and with the statistical impossibility that will occur means he will need to get more benefit of the doubt.  If it was fantasy football, we'd all be calling this guy an idiot as he claims he should have been in the championship game ... and have won.

So, if the statistically anomaly goes away, we will go 9-3 easily and probably upset OU or Michigan and really be the Champs [going 10-2 or 11-1] of the East and play OSU in the B1G Championship and a shot at a Natty.  I'm all for it.  The schedule is very easy. I'm not believing that will happen and I'm sure even the next season [if we went say 9-3 this year] that we would again go 9-3 or better under Frost.  

If what I've expressed sounds negative, it is suppose to.  I think the days of, "Ah shucks Coach Frost, that was a tough loss.  Go get 'em next week" need to be over.  It's "WIN BABY WIN" ... or be replaced!

I'm finished with putting the red lipstick on the pig.  This is "pig" and it's horrid.  I'd rather kill the pig and eat the bacon if we get more "statistics" to claim how "good" we are.

 
BigRedN said:
Ya, I agree.  I mean what the heck is going on with Scott actually having to fire half of his staff, reduce his pay and bring in potentially two possible candidates to replace him?  I mean statistically, we could have gone 11-1.  We are only one player away.  This is a really good team.  We love these guys!  Heck, Trev should have locked him into a new contract and deal just like the old AD after Scott was 4-5 on his way to a 5-7 season.  Scott needs our support, not criticism for his coaching and player development.

In all seriousness, ya, run that simulation 5000 times and only get 3-9 twice ... and what I hear is crediting to Frost that he has just had bad luck.  I mean, why don't we just throw in that the B1G is scheduling us to lose, the refs won't give us a call and the media is biased and against us.  It feels like "cry me a river" and "the lawyer screwed me" instead of the product on the field.  What "win" felt good to you?  For me, it was NW and the way we ran it and then had no fumbles or interceptions. Yet, it is how the team performed in the tight games where we just seek to find a way to break down and implode.  That stuff can't be statistically compiled.  It can't even be coached.  

So, if it is all unfair, and statistically just impossible, how unlucky of Frost to go 4-7, 5-8, 3-5, and 3-9.  You would think it would just be a "strange" year.  But, it's every year  ... and then folks pull out one year, show the 5000 similation and prescribe that it's just an anomaly.  Maybe he is the Andy Dufrane of college football and its all just unfair.  

I suppose that means that 4-8, 5-7 or 6-6 is improvement and with the statistical impossibility that will occur means he will need to get more benefit of the doubt.  If it was fantasy football, we'd all be calling this guy an idiot as he claims he should have been in the championship game ... and have won.

So, if the statistically anomaly goes away, we will go 9-3 easily and probably upset OU or Michigan and really be the Champs [going 10-2 or 11-1] of the East and play OSU in the B1G Championship and a shot at a Natty.  I'm all for it.  The schedule is very easy. I'm not believing that will happen and I'm sure even the next season [if we went say 9-3 this year] that we would again go 9-3 or better under Frost.  

If what I've expressed sounds negative, it is suppose to.  I think the days of, "Ah shucks Coach Frost, that was a tough loss.  Go get 'em next week" need to be over.  It's "WIN BABY WIN" ... or be replaced!

I'm finished with putting the red lipstick on the pig.  This is "pig" and it's horrid.  I'd rather kill the pig and eat the bacon if we get more "statistics" to claim how "good" we are.
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Not disagreeing with anything you said.  Some might say that it really shows the ineptidude of the staff to post that bad of a record with a team that is stastically way better.  But to me it shows that we could very easily could flip our record from 3-9 to 9-3 just like UCF did when they were 0-11.  

 
Undone said:
@Mavric: I think this points as much as anything to Frost & Lubick's scheme & play calling being very overblown on the list of problems. We really didn't have much trouble moving the ball down the field, and we ranked ahead of Wisconsin & Iowa in points per game (and I understand Iowa's number goes down from that curb stomping in the B1G title game but still).
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Stop.

Most teams play "bend don't break" on defense.  Not just Nebraska.

It goes from the 20 yard line to the defense' 25.  And that is where the rubber meets the road.

Did we move the ball between the 25's?  Yes

Did the opponent's defensive game plan necessitate that?  Yes 

Do stats show we were effective on offense between the 20's?  Yes

Does that mean we were super awesome on offense between the 20's,... or does it indicate that our opponent's defense was playing safe until you get around field goal range?  Yes

And then, .... the defense will tighten up to make you score touchdowns.

One would look at things both ways, and realize moving the ball from 25-25 is allowed across the board.  

It does not indicate you have a super efficient offense in between those lines.  

How does one not understand that? 

What you do from the 25 to the goal line is where you find truth in your offense.  Touchdowns, then FG's, then missed opportunities for any kind of points.

 
Huskerfollower4life said:
If your not added to any particular watch lists does that mean you can't be nominated? I ask bc what happens if a player has a breakout year but he was ignored before the season started. Example (Omar Manning)? He is turning into a sleeper or people have forgot he was the number #1 juco wr 2 years ago and have written him off and aren't expecting much from him. I say sometimes it takes time for kids to adjust to a new environment. Im hoping he proves people wrong!!! Can someone please answer??????
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If your strategy is to get into the red zone and kick field goals then you're setting yourself up for failure.  Maybe not in the computer simulation multiverse.  Maybe not in the Twighlight Zone.  But in the actual game of football, it's not a good strategy. 

 
Big Ten seems to love FGs so competing in the Big Ten - punt pass and kick league - seems logical.  But, I agree, you need to ‘settle’ for FGs not plan for them.  
It feels like Frost has struggled to finish drives with TDs and has struggled to score more than 30 very often.  Even vs some of our weakest opponents, getting 60 is a stretch.  And that’s with the Frost version of the fun n gun - hurry up - chunk yards - offense.  As result, Frost - I suspect - gets impatient and anxious and opts to go for 4th downs and so on, perhaps feeling he needs TDs not 3s on every possible chance because he won’t get many more chances as the second have plays out.  4th quarters have not been very good under Frost.  For a variety of reasons but lack of a good power run game, imo, is a major issue.  

 
Farms said:
Not disagreeing with anything you said.  Some might say that it really shows the ineptidude of the staff to post that bad of a record with a team that is stastically way better.  But to me it shows that we could very easily could flip our record from 3-9 to 9-3 just like UCF did when they were 0-11.  
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Yep, agreed.  Sure could.  The part that complicates that is that we have compiled four years of the same stuff ... and then this stats come out and people make it out like it's just one year ... and it's not.  

If any year could/would/should be 9-3 ... it's this year.  For me, I don't think it means anything in terms of "restore the order" ... but at least we won't be the laughing stock that it feels we are.

It's so bad, I actually have a new avatar for when we lose to spell Nebraska with a "K".  Geez.

 

Mark - Big Red K 150.jpg

 
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