To be honest, I think that, to a casual observer, our offense won't look much different than last years. Formations will be similar, we will still run read option plays (though less than last year), and our running game will still be mostly zone. What we will see is an improvement in pass routes. Early on there was some talk of moving to a passing tree. That means about 10 standard routes that are drilled every day, that the WR and QB know like the back of their hands. So fewer 'miscommunications', and even if Tommy isn't right on the money with his throws, it will be enough in the general directions of our talented receivers that they'll be able to adjust and make a grab. I think we will see more passes to and receptions by the TE, especially in red zone situations and as check downs. I expect the running game to struggle a little early as whoever gets the starting spot settles in, but it should be serviceable enough that our offense won't be one dimensional. And, of course, there will be the occasional under center heavy or jumbo set for short yardage, goal line, and the occasional play action situations.
Our defense will look similar enough, as we will still be running primarily as 4-3, nickle and dime formations as needed. Expect cover 2 and cover 4, with the occasional rotation into a cover 3 or cover 6. I expect more zone coverage than man coverage. I expect the front 4 to be much more aggressive, spilling the play to the outside a lot, so expect LBs, CBs, and Safeties to record a lot of tackles in run support. I expect more blitzing in pass situations, especially zone blitzes from the LBs and DBs.
I expect special teams to be more of what we saw last year, and maybe some improvement in field goals and kick returns.
Considering all this, my belief that Tue new staff will fix and improve a lot of the players fundamentals, against the adjustments the players will have to make, and I see 10 or 11 REGULAR SEASON wins.
BYU and Miami will be tough, but winnable. Hill and the BYU offense will really test our defense, but I expect the simpler system which is designed to allow our athletic defensive players to shine will hold them to 28-35 points. BYU always has a solid but rarely exceptional defense, but I expect our improved passing game and zone running to allow us to score enough to win, though the margin is anywhere from 3-10 points. Miami will have some tremendous athletes, and Brad Kaaya WIPO be much improved. I expect them to put up 250+ passing yards on us. Their RB should only be serviceable, and get at most 100ish yards. I see Miami scoring 28-31 points. Tommy will have to be accurate in his passes against Miami's D, because they have some tremendous athletes that can jump routes really well. If we don't turn the ball over more than twice, we should be fine. The big question will be the running game. If Newby or Taylor (depending on who starts) can make one cut in the backfield, hit the most wide open gap, and get 5 yards up field on most running plays, we should be good for 100-120 yards on the ground, and add another 50 from QB scrambles and read options. The O-line will have to do a tremendous job up front, but if they live up to my expectations, we should be fine. We will be at worst 3-1 going into Big 10 play, but I expect 4-0.
The only two games I feel we will lose in the regular season are Wisconsin and MSU.
For Wisconsin, I don't expect their passing game to have improved too much, so 200 yards tops, and that's if our DBs are sleeping. Corey Clement, their RB, is good. He's big, heavy, and fast, but doesn't seem to have the same shake and bake that Gordon had. On the other hand, our D-line and LBs will be much more aggressive, which should limit them to a 4 ypc average. Depending on how well the new staff adjusts to what Wisconsin is doing on O and D, we should win by 10-14 points at best, or lose by 7-10 at worst. There's a lot of unknowns on either side here.
MSU will be a tough one. Their D is always good to exceptional, so it will take either Tommy, our RBs, or both to really step things up to pull off a win. Their O is solid but not exceptional. I see this one being a 3-7 point win or loss, it could go either way. I think it will go to OT. Should be a thriller.
All in all, I expect a 10-2 or 11-1 regular season with a trip to Indy to play against Ohio State. That game, save for a few turnovers going our way and some exceptional play by all phases, should be a 14-17 point loss. We will play a major bowl and, win or lose, be riding high going into the off season.
Of course, any team can win any game any week. There's no such thing as a sure win in football. And I could be way off. We could lose to BYU, Miami, Wisconsin, and MSU and be 8-4 or (with some bad luck) 7-5 going into the post season. But in the end, with as many factors accounted for as I possibly can, I believe that the most likely situation will resemble what I wrote above.
