The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[TGHusker]

How is everyone feeling about the timing of some states ending their shelter in place orders or slowly starting to open up some businesses at the end of this week or the month?

We aren't ready.  There is still too much unknown.  While I'm working at home, at the office they are just starting to take everyone's temp before entering the building. 

Unfortunately, too many people will die thinking they are safe or in this case thinking it is just political (probably a Trump cult member unfortunately. It is sad when anyone dies and in this case perhaps because of bad political thinking)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441636/john-mcdaniel-killed-coronavirus-dismissing-political-ploy/

 

[BigRedBuster]

3,000 tests per day in Nebraska

Governor Pete Ricketts on Tuesday announced a new program will be set up in Nebraska that will greatly increase the state’s COVID-19 testing capacity.

The initiative, called TestNebraska, will allow for up to 3,000 tests per day, Ricketts said. Currently, 600-800 tests are being completed each day statewide.

 

[TGHusker]

Here is the scary part of opening things up too quick - it isn't the sick who show symptoms that spread the disease by in large - it are those without symptoms that do most of the spreading.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-mostly-spreads-asymptomatically-complicating-reopening-20200420.html

Just two months ago, the discovery that two people infected with the coronavirus had no symptoms was such big scientific news that it was published in the New England Journal of Medicine.



Now, it is becoming clear that much, if not most, of the spread of the virus is by infected people who don’t get sick. New evidence comes from a Boston homeless shelter, an Italian town, a California county, and a Navy aircraft carrier.



“With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy, said at a briefing earlier this month.



That secret power has huge implications for curbing the pandemic, and further dampens the prospects for safely reopening the United States before therapies or a vaccine are available.

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

How is everyone feeling about the timing of some states ending their shelter in place orders or slowly starting to open up some businesses at the end of this week or the month?

It's a risk - seems like more time is the safe route, that being said, all the serological data is stacking up, and it's all saying the virus is far more widespread and less deadly than anticipated. I think as we open back up, we still need to emphasize social distancing and mask wearing. The goal was to flatten the curve, we were never going to eradicate the curve. Many hospitals are far under capacity and able to take on patients as it stands now. 

 

[knapplc]

3,000 tests per day in Nebraska

It's a start, but at 3,000 per day it'll take two years to test the whole state.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

I am very thankful that me and my wife can continue to work from home, and retain most of our pre-COVID outbreak income (wife was given a 10% pay cut).  The Colorado governor has announced a slight alteration to the stay at home orders.  While there isn't much difference in the new "safer at home" orders, I fear that people will think all of the restrictions are lifted, and they can go back to "business as usual", and there will be a rebound in new cases.  While I am not fearful of myself getting the virus, I am most concerned about the overall well-being of the population if there was a significant rebound in cases.

 

[RedDenver]

How is everyone feeling about the timing of some states ending their shelter in place orders or slowly starting to open up some businesses at the end of this week or the month?

I'm torn. One the one hand we greatly risk spreading the virus and hurting the economy yet again. On the other there isn't enough of a safety net for a lot of people to survive not working.

I think we need to starting paying people to stay at home with enough money they can survive, then reopen slowly using test and trace methods. But we'll probably not do anything, which will force a lot of people to start disobeying the stay at home orders and things will be worse both economically and pandemically.

 

[BigRedBuster]

It's a start, but at 3,000 per day it'll take two years to test the whole state.

The idea isn't to test the whole state.  And, it can be expanded.  You're right, it's a start.  I just went through the questionnaire.  It designed to find people who may be asymptomatic and get them tested, then track them.

 

[DevoHusker]

I cannot work from home, and have not missed a day of work since this started. I am careful of who I interact with. I wear a mask and sanitize before and after I enter any business. My wife cannot work from home, as she is a nurse in a busy clinic. She was cut back 30% on hours, and maybe more (not as of yet) but is guaranteed 66% of her normal pay regardless. She is in contact with positive cases daily. She utilizes PPE at work. She changes clothes in the basement immediately after work, and showers before resuming daily activity. 

I don't believe anyone from my employment has tested positive. My wife's boss, and the boss's wife, both tested positive but are now back to work. He had it worse than her, but even he was not severe... he described it as a bad case of bronchitis. My kids and grandkids are all healthy, and have not been affected, thank goodness. My parents are in their 70's, and dad is immunodeficient due to cancer treatments he endured two summers ago. They all have been careful, while locking locking themselves in the basement.  

We started all this on the 11th of March. Tomorrow will be six weeks. My area is just now being advertised Nationally as one of the hottest hot spots outside of New York. But, we can NOT continue like this indefinitely. I don't feel that Ricketts has a crystal ball to tell him when to start reopening the State. But there are areas, not too distant from my county, that have yet to record a single case, and life has continued pretty much the same as ever according to friends in those areas. How can anyone say that on Sunday May 3rd we still need to quarantine and abide by the DHMs...but by God, we are good to go on Monday May 4th. 

At some point, and I say sooner rather than later, we simply have to start relaxing the measures we have put in place. Do so slowly, but steadily. We might see some uptick in cases, but I personally do not think that is the case. New numbers and studies are showing that the overall positive cases are likely MUCH higher than previously reported...so I believe that so many folks have it/had it and will never know, that we have pretty much reached saturation for the folks that have not been able to be indoors the past six weeks with no outside contact. Hundreds of thousands of people have suffered a few days of mild symptoms and returned to normal. The percentage with antibodies built by that mild infection (herd immunity) will never be 100%, but I certainly feel it is much more prevalent than first assumptions.

So, slowly reduce/remove the restrictions, and try to return to normal for the most part. If some folks believe very strongly that they cannot do that, and want to shelter in place until a vaccine is readily available, then by all means choose to do so. We won't have much of an economy to return to if this continues for the 12-18 months they are projecting for a verified vaccine. 

For the rest of us...my friends that need to earn a paycheck and pay bills and feed their kids, or my small business owner/restaurant owner friends, or kids that need socialization and organized sports...let's pick a date (how about May 11th) and, to quote Shawshank, "get busy living or get busy dying."

 

[TGHusker]

The Texas Lt Gov remains a quote machine.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article242167741.html

 

[knapplc]

@DevoHusker I agree with a lot of what you're saying. The absolutely crucial first step is vastly ramped-up testing. Test everyone. Test them twice. Test them again in six weeks. Get a map of the hot spots, figure out where problems are, and clamp down on social distancing in those spots.

If we don't do that, any process of reopening is going to end with more and more and more cases.

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

Just FYI New York doing a mass antibody test starting this week, largest of its kind (I believe) in the world. FDA approved the test. Hell this thing could have rolled through half of NYC so far, for all we know - gonna be very interesting to see these results. 

 

[DevoHusker]

@DevoHusker I agree with a lot of what you're saying. The absolutely crucial first step is vastly ramped-up testing. Test everyone. Test them twice. Test them again in six weeks. Get a map of the hot spots, figure out where problems are, and clamp down on social distancing in those spots.

If we don't do that, any process of reopening is going to end with more and more and more cases.

thanks Knapp...and I agree. Hopefully we can continue to improve testing procedures to get instant results. With the improvements to, and production of,  testing equipment we've seen since the jump, another couple of weeks might be worthwhile.

 

[Decoy73]

Just FYI New York doing a mass antibody test starting this week, largest of its kind (I believe) in the world. FDA approved the test. Hell this thing could have rolled through half of NYC so far, for all we know - gonna be very interesting to see these results. 

Also of interest is what they do with the results.  “You have antibodies. Go back  to work, etc”. I wonder how is that going regulated or documented?  Hopefully they have a plan. 

 

[TGHusker]

My 90 year old dad sent an eml with this on it. Reminds me we aren't the first to walk down this path.