The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

FrantzHardySwag said:
The numbers in NY and NJ would indicate that covid has swept through the vulnerable population. I really hope we see similar things happen in Florida, Texas, Arizona - definitely something to keep an eye on. 
Click to expand...
I should rephrase. This immunity will have come at a high cost, but the silver lining is less cases and less deaths, and we've been through the worst of it. 

 
FrantzHardySwag said:
I should rephrase. This immunity will have come at a high cost, but the silver lining is less cases and less deaths, and we've been through the worst of it. 
Click to expand...


Yeah. And I think the other thing to consider that I really haven't seen that many people talking about is that it's not just about what is happening right now but about the extrapolation of what will happen in the medium time frames given varying protocols.

Sweden got blasted back in April for having measurably higher per capita death rates than Finland, Denmark, & Norway - but that was their exact strategy. They didn't come to that policy decision because they're heartless; they actually did it based on what their scientific experts were extrapolating about the contagiousness of this pathogen.

 
Undone said:
A friend sent me this yesterday. If the data this Swedish doctor presents is accurate, this is really important.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

TL;DR: This Swedish doctor believes Sweden is already seeing the effects of herd immunity and guesstimates that probably roughly 50% of Swedes have contracted C19.

I think what we're seeing in the U.S. is basically just a dragging out of the inevitable. 
Click to expand...
There's more variables here than the doctor is looking at. If you just used raw statistics then the US should be tapering off in deaths and about done like Sweden supposedly is. We would have roughly 180-200k total deaths from COVID if you use the swedish per capita deaths rate. We'll probably beat that easily.

We need to remember no country is created equal. Some have better healthcare system than others, and everyone has different customs. Sweden is know for already being a socially distant country. My old roommate lived there for a year and kind of hated how nobody socialized and went out after work. If people aren't interacting a lot that's another way to slow/stop a virus. I'd think you would reach an immunity much faster that way because some of the population has already been infected, but you've also naturally reduced the likelihood of transmission with less interactions.

 
ZRod said:
There's more variables here than the doctor is looking at. If you just used raw statistics then the US should be tapering off in deaths and about done like Sweden supposedly is. We would have roughly 180-200k total deaths from COVID if you use the swedish per capita deaths rate. We'll probably beat that easily.

We need to remember no country is created equal. Some have better healthcare system than others, and everyone has different customs. Sweden is know for already being a socially distant country. My old roommate lived there for a year and kind of hated how nobody socialized and went out after work. If people aren't interacting a lot that's another way to slow/stop a virus. I'd think you would reach an immunity much faster that way because some of the population has already been infected, but you've also naturally reduced the likelihood of transmission with less interactions.
Click to expand...


Great points. But just so we're clear, I'm not making a case that pines for a per capita COVID death rate similar to or dissimilar to Sweden. That wasn't the point.

The point of his data is that Sweden seems to be on the tail end of Coronavirus, and we're not. They didn't have any lock-downs and (as far as I've read) didn't enforce masks.

 
Undone said:
Great points. But just so we're clear, I'm not making a case that pines for a per capita COVID death rate similar to or dissimilar to Sweden. That wasn't the point.

The point of his data is that Sweden seems to be on the tail end of Coronavirus, and we're not. They didn't have any lock-downs and (as far as I've read) didn't enforce masks.
Click to expand...
Right, and there norms are also a lot different than ours, and a lot of Europe.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Waldo said:
These past few pages are an example of why I’ll never vote blue in the near future. 
Click to expand...


SIv2O9D.png


 
ZRod said:
Right, and there norms are also a lot different than ours, and a lot of Europe.9
Click to expand...
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

This was a pretty informative article I came across a few weeks ago. Sheds a lot of light on the so-called herd immunity threshold, and how it is extremely circumstantial on community behavior and can be heavily affected by small changes in initial conditions. 
 

IMO, places like New York City and New Orleans are showing signs of herd immunity given that they got hit hard early and have had possibly upwards of 20-30% exposure to the virus as a regional population. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ultimately the herd immunity idea as a strategy for this seems not great to me. Sure, you may get through it quicker, but if this turns out to be endemic then you are going to end up looking bad. Either way, drawing things out gives doctors and scientists more time to study the virus, create better treatments and ultimate create a vaccine. Yes the same amount of people may get the virus in a country who pursues strict measures, but these cases are more spread out making them easier to handle for the healthcare system, as well as giving patients better treatment as time progresses. Ultimately, it should result in less deaths, and so far it has. No one should make sweeping comments about the long term here but we will see as the data comes out.

Also as an aside, of course the scientist who went with herd immunity is going to defend herd immunity lol. Not everyone agrees with him. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/21/coronavirus-swedish-herd-immunity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

 
commando said:
someone did something right.   
Click to expand...




I’ve watched a few interviews with her and she seems pretty great. Also New Zealand has mountains and no apex predators. Perfect combination for someone who wants to hike without thinking about bears. brb heading to Linkedin and monster.com

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Moiraine said:
I’ve watched a few interviews with her and she seems pretty great. Also New Zealand has mountains and no apex predators. Perfect combination for someone who wants to hike without thinking about bears. brb heading to Linkedin and monster.com
Click to expand...
But don't they have every single most venomous snakes, insects, and spiders in the world?  I'd rather fight a bear!

Edit: nevermind, I just did a quick Google and BOY WAS I WRONG!  Not sure what I was thinking but this article says NO venomous animals of any kind...I was apparently thinking of Australia...

https://teara.govt.nz/en/spiders-and-other-arachnids/page-5#:~:text=New Zealand has no harmful,white-tailed spiders from Australia.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
funhusker said:
But don't they have every single most venomous snakes, insects, and spiders in the world?  I'd rather fight a bear!

Edit: nevermind, I just did a quick Google and BOY WAS I WRONG!  Not sure what I was thinking but this article says NO venomous animals of any kind...I was apparently thinking of Australia...

https://teara.govt.nz/en/spiders-and-other-arachnids/page-5#:~:text=New Zealand has no harmful,white-tailed spiders from Australia.
Click to expand...




Yep. They have sheep. 

 
Back
Top