Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[Undone]

So, in other words (or another’s words), what you’re saying is “it is what it is”. The fact is we could’ve and should’ve done better as a country managing this ordeal. We didn’t and there really is no mystery to it. It only seems to escape those whose politics it doesn’t align with.Total and complete lack of responsible leadership. But sure, go ahead and act like that has nothing to do with it.

That’s your response to somebody that lost their job from this whole ordeal?

 

[Undone]

Why do you constantly strawman opinions you disagree with?

I asked funhusker for clarification on his/her point.

 

[knapplc]

I asked funhusker for clarification on his/her point.

So you want to destroy Husker football and all it stands for, correct?

 

[Archy1221]

Do you understand the definition of "flattening the curve"?

This is flattening the curve:



Meanwhile in the US, the  curve looks like this:

View attachment 17149

We plateaued and then started up again after Memorial Day and we continue to rise.  Note this graph is of Active Cases - meaning Positive Tests - Cases with Resolutions (recovery or death)

As far as no health care systems being overwhelmed, I'm not so sure in the case of New York (City).  Anytime you have so many bodies piling up so fast you have to use refrigerated trucks to store all the bodies you have a problem.  Unless, that is, one considers it a bonus to have enough people die that hospital beds keep opening up, for the next set of ready to die victims.

And looking at things from the point of each US state being a separate "country" is EXACTLY why we are in such bad shape as a nation - States do not have the right to just close off their borders to all other states (nor would they since they need truck traffic, etc.).  With policies that vary radically from state to state, we ended up with a hodge-podge that basically left certain areas doing ok, then getting a delayed explosion in cases.  Florida, for example.

This hodge-podge meant that things like sports, happening across all states (football teams are going to have to travel across 1 or more state boundaries for ~1/2 of their games) left the situation very tenuous. 

Do you understand what flattening the curve means?  It is designed to prevent “exponential growth” as to not overwhelm a hospital system. 
mom sure you will notice that even in a flattened curve, growth does go up in the beginning until a plateau occurs, then a downturn.  Does our chart of active cases look anything like the UM exponential growth curve??  I think not.  
As a country we have slowed the unchecked spread and every city that has been hit hard, has managed through any capacity challenges.  
Refrigerated trucks for dead bodies does not mean those propel died because of hospitals triaging who lives and who dies.  It means the processing of dead bodies is backed up, not the care for the people prior to dying.  Hope that helps you understand this a little more.  
And yes, each state should be deciding their own guidelines because it makes ZERO sense for SD, ND, NE, KS, MT, etc..to have total lockdowns of their economy with little to no community spread.  
If we really wanted to stop this at the beginning, then stopping interstate travel outside of shipping/transport would have been the way to go, yet legal challenges would have prevented this.  NY basically seeded a majority of other state infection areas in the beginning.  
 

and Florida is the another perfect reason that each state presents its own issues.  South Florida was by far and away the biggest problem area and they also had the longest lockdown in the beginning of the pandemic.  Most other parts of FL held up relatively well at the states absolute worst point. 

 

[knapplc]

Refrigerated trucks for dead bodies does not mean those propel died because of hospitals triaging who lives and who dies.  It means the processing of dead bodies is backed up, not the care for the people prior to dying.  Hope that helps you understand this a little more.  

Do... do you think this is normal? :blink:

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Jason Sitoke]

We have more deaths because wer'e fat, lazy and entitled. Seriously, is there a fatter country on that list?  

Now get off that keyboard and go jog around the block.  

I believe Palau has a slight advantage at the moment in per capita heifery.  But this is a 60 minute ballgame!

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Undone]

So you want to destroy Husker football and all it stands for, correct?

It's like you can see into my very soul.

 

[Bledred]

The speculation is rampant right now.  There are online articles out there that are saying the B1G already canceled the season and that there WAS a 12-2 vote by Presidents.  

 

[Archy1221]

The theoretical scenario is discussing serious/fatal cases - those requiring hospitalization.  Yes, the overall numbers include asymptomatic cases.

Then, in the scenario you describe, if we have way more asymptomatic tests, then we should have a much lower death rate per case than similar countries.  In other words, if extra testing is simply doing a better job of revealing asymptomatic cases within the US vs other countries, we should have a much lower rate of death per million than those similar countries.

Here is the date for the top ten countries in terms of number of cases, comparing their death rates (per million), cases rate (per million), and the death rate per cases:












Country


Cases


Deaths/Million


Cases/Million


         Deaths/Total     Cases




United States


5,251,000


502


15,855


0.0317




Brazil


3,057,000


479


14,373


0.0333




India


2,267,000


33


1,641


0.0201




Russia


892,000


103


6,117


0.0168




South Africa


563,000


179


9,490


0.0189




Mexico


486,000


411


3,764


0.1092




Peru


478,000


638


14,476


0.0441




Colombia


398,000


258


7,805


0.0331




Chile


375,000


530


19,601


0.0270




Spain


370,000


611


7,915


0.0772







So, if the reason the US has so many more cases is because we find more asymptomatic cases vs the rest of the world (due to all the extra testing we do), we would then expect the US to have a lower Deaths/Total Cases ratio, since we would have more "benign" cases of coronavirus.  Looking at the top 10 countries, and the US ranks 5th out of 10 countries.  To me, this indicates that the US rate of asymptomatic detection is not particularly higher or lower than the rest of the world.

I would expect the US to have better health care, on average, than Brazil, India, Peru, Colombia, and Chile.  Yet two of those countries have a lower rate of deaths per cases than the US, two have comparable levels to the US and one has a higher death rate. 

India and Russia are both lower than the US, but I wonder if this is due to how they diagnosis the cause of death - perhaps they just say pneumonia and leave it at that.  Before looking at this data I would have expected them to have higher death rates per cases than the US.  It looks like Mexico is still in the early stages of testing - they only seem to test those that are seriously ill, thus the death rate that is currently 3x higher than the US.  If Mexico starts to ramp up testing we will see if they start to fall more in line with the other countries.

The only "early outbreak" country on this list is Spain and their rate is also very high, although I would assume they are still doing a lot of testing.  Their high death rate per case may be due to the fact that not much was known about treatment when they suffered through their outbreak.  Something similar may have happened in NYC as well - we've seen much lower death rates per cases in the US since then, and I think, based on what we see above, it is not really due to some incredible increase in asymptomatic cases relative to serious/fatal cases.

My thought is the reality is diluted somewhat by the additional testing we do in the US - we are probably still missing some asymptomatic cases due to false negatives, which if they tested positive would lower the US rate some.  At this time I don't think the number is significant, but it may be bigger than we think.

And now look into how each country classifies a death as a Covid-19 death.  Your chart is basically comparing apples to oranges.  It’s kinda equatable to Comparing each countries life expectancy to ours.  We include every baby born, others include a baby that makes it at least 1 month, some 3 months etc...  And including India and Russia doesn’t make sense.  Might as well include China’s false numbers.  

 

[Archy1221]

Ya good one.  Let’s make the most outlandish law breaking example and run with that one to say we’re not a feee society. 

AKA an "analogy"

Thanks for playing.

By the way I never said pure freedom and your analogy didn’t quite hit the mark you were hoping.  Glad I got to play 

 

[JJ Husker]

That’s your response to somebody that lost their job from this whole ordeal?

I guess so  :dunno

But I was responding to what he said and the apparent disregard for doing anything resembling controlling the spread of the virus. If it hurt your feelings, look somewhere else for an apology. I'm fed up with people supporting a certain President and then acting like his failed leadership had absolutely no effect on the sh#tshow we have now. It's the way it is now for reason. Time to hold those that enable it accountable.

 

[Archy1221]

Do... do you think this is normal? :blink:

Nice strawman. You sure have a nasty habit of acting like I say things I never said.  

 

[knapplc]

Nice strawman. You sure have a nasty habit of acting like I say things I never said.  

Hi. Funny story. Quoting you is not a "straw man."