Husker Future Lines

[Red Five]

Josh’s tweet moved the line from +185 to -300

 

[runningblind]

Was that you that pointed it out the other day?

Yep.

Vegas likes you liking that Iowa win total, too.

Everyone says that, I normally take the under on Iowa too, but then they win 9 or 10 games against all reason.   Way more money has been made betting the under on Nebraska than Iowa in the last decade. 

 

[JJ Husker]

9-1 (or a 10% chance) for NU to make the playoffs.  I think we are quite a bit more of a longshot than that.

Yeah I thought +900 was a bit light. But it’s tough to make money on No at -1000.

$10 to pay $100 or $10 to pay $11. I’ll take the first one and lose my $10. The other just isn’t worth it.

 

[hskrpwr13]

It's interesting that NU is favored in 10 of 12, yet the Win total is at 7.5. 

 

[NsideScoop]

It's interesting that NU is favored in 10 of 12, yet the Win total is at 7.5. 

I’m seeing 9/12. Iowa, USC, and Ohio St as the 3 not favored in

 

[zeWilbur]

It's interesting that NU is favored in 10 of 12, yet the Win total is at 7.5. 

Once you understand that the numbers are just trying to hit the middle of the gambling money in total it makes sense. The bookies just want to take their cut from reading the betting population. They don't think that NU will win 7.5. They think that the bettors will be 50% 7- and 50% 8+.

 

[hskrpwr13]

I’m seeing 9/12. Iowa, USC, and Ohio St as the 3 not favored in

Good catch.

 

[hskrpwr13]

Once you understand that the numbers are just trying to hit the middle of the gambling money in total it makes sense. The bookies just want to take their cut from reading the betting population. They don't think that NU will win 7.5. They think that the bettors will be 50% 7- and 50% 8+.

I get that. But it shows that maybe the Huskers are a bit underrated coming into the season. 

 

[Hilltop]

I get that. But it shows that maybe the Huskers are a bit underrated coming into the season. 

Based on paper...  on the field,  a guy could have made a fortune betting against NU the past decade.   I'm optimistic but I'm not betting a dime until I see them prove it on the field. 

 

[hskrpwr13]

Based on paper...  on the field,  a guy could have made a fortune betting against NU the past decade.   In optimistic but I'm not being a dime until I see them prove it on the field. 

Fair take. I think if they stay on the good size of health, 8-wins should be plenty achievable. 

 

[teachercd]

Remember that those early lines are here in Nebraska.  

Those, for the most part, are not "national" lines just yet.  

When I was in college my local bookie would jack up the NU line 5-7 points, because he/she/they/them knew all the action would be on NU

 

[brophog]

Once you understand that the numbers are just trying to hit the middle of the gambling money in total it makes sense. The bookies just want to take their cut from reading the betting population.

Biggest fallacy in sports betting. The vigorish is just a safeguard, a house edge that protects them over time. There are loads of bets out there where the bookie has significant liability if a certain result pops up. There are also lots of bets where they have a massive edge.

 

[Gage County]

Biggest fallacy in sports betting. The vigorish is just a safeguard, a house edge that protects them over time. There are loads of bets out there where the bookie has significant liability if a certain result pops up. There are also lots of bets where they have a massive edge.

I've never met a bookie that was in it just for the juice, they all play. Same with casinos. 

 

[brophog]

I've never met a bookie that was in it just for the juice, they all play. Same with casinos. 

There's certainly some bookmakers willing to take more of a risk than others. But, if we assume the logic is correct that their primary goal is to split the bet and collect the vig then we're saying they're doing all of this for about 4.5%. There are far better (and often more legal) ways of making 4.5%.

 

[zeWilbur]

They aren't making 4.5% on their money though. They are making that on ALL of the money put on the game for both sides. Do that for every game and it is a lot bigger than you think. And that's before the other things people are dumb enough to bet on like parlays and Raiola winning the Heisman as a freshman. Vegas didn't exactly happen by accident.