The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

Who will you vote for in November - new ballot:

  • Harris

    Votes: 28 71.8%

  • Trump

    Votes: 3 7.7%

  • Kennedy

    Votes: 5 12.8%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 7.7%
  • Total voters
    39
Dr. Strangelove said:
I've been saying it for like a year now. I don't think American's were allowed to bet on it, were they?

His odds are probably at 90% right now, maybe higher.
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This is America!

Of course you can bet on it!  The only things we can't do are get guys to shut the f#&% up about what women can do and legalize weed in Nebraska...

 
teachercd said:
Trump -320

This is just moving ALL over the place.
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Betting markets are just reacting to live data, like this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

teachercd said:
Guess we will never know.
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If there's one thing that this election showed is that polls were pretty accurate, and will end up undercounting Trump support by ~2%. Against Biden, Trump was winning those polls by pretty large margins. It's safe to say that this election would've been a wipeout if Biden stayed on the ticket, it'll end up being a loss similar to 2016 with Kamala.

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
Yup, Trump going to win tonight.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

You can get sort of live forecasts for the election results. While it's early, trends are showing a heavy shift towards Trump in nearly all areas - rural counties, suburbs, and Harris margin in cities isn't enough.

The lesson of this election is that: nothing a candidate says or does matters, canvasing or outspending your opponent doesn't matter. What mattered was being the party in power during inflation and voters were upset about it. Incumbent governments lost in every election in western countries all over. The only governments that were in power during inflation that haven't had elections are Germany, where the incumbent government is extremely unpopular, Canada where the incumbent government is EXTREMELY unpopular, and up until the United States.

The elections in the US will end up the closest, but it won't be enough. 
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Ya, this thought went through my head when I was listening to an individual say he voted for Clinton and Biden but voted for Trump because the economy hasn’t been good lately. 

People have always been and will always be stupid when it comes to what they think the president can/can’t control and whether things can get a hell of a lot worse. 

 
Moiraine said:
Ya, this thought went through my head when I was listening to an individual say he voted for Clinton and Biden but voted for Trump because the economy hasn’t been good lately. 

People have always been and will always be stupid when it comes to what they think the president can/can’t control and whether things can get a hell of a lot worse. 
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To voters, the economy is never good. That person is unaware that he's probably living through the best economy a person has experienced, but because that economy is happening 12 months after huge price increases, they don't realize it.

 
Well NYT went from 69% Trump chance of winning to 67% in the past 15 mins. 

I think Harris’s most likely victory is 270-268 now. 

Moiraine said:
Well NYT went from 69% Trump chance of winning to 67% in the past 15 mins. 

I think Harris’s most likely victory is 270-268 now. 
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A minute later and it’s back up to 69%. 

 
Moiraine said:
Well NYT went from 69% Trump chance of winning to 67% in the past 15 mins. 

I think Harris’s most likely victory is 270-268 now. 

A minute later and it’s back up to 69%. 
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Yeah, FiveThirtyEight has trump at about 75%.

The only hope Harris has is that the models are under estimating the available vote in major Democrat cities - Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee. So far, the reports from those cities aren't at the margins Harris needs to win any of those states. There is still a chance that the late voters broke for Harris and that she wins those states, but honestly it's just a matter of time before it's evident the numbers won't materialize. 

In all likelihood, the election will not be official tonight, but the trends of the available vote will be clear. Harris will simply not have the margins in the cities to keep up, and she's going to lose every swing state.

 
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