2024 Blackshirts

[BigRedBuster]

I'm saying if you take the entire year's stats at face value, you might miss the current state of things if they are trending in a different direction.  I only threw in the number for a relative comparison as I'm not able to compare for all 60 teams easily.  What this means is we've not been playing like the 25th ranked rush defense the last month, but lower.  This is how you can better gauge current matchups instead of just going off 3 months of numbers when a season has ebbs and flows and changes in competition level.

I don't see how looking at how we did against UTEP, CU (dead last in the NCAA), and N. Iowa is a useful comparison about how good we actually are. I want to know what is happening right now, so I know better what to expect when we face a top 15 one on Friday night. 

It seems people care about stats, rather than how we're playing right this second which is what I'm looking for.  What happened in September has little bearing on how we matchup with Iowa in November.

OK, going by your evaluation.  You use the 4 games we just lost.  Let's look at Iowa's losses.  Iowa is usually considered to have a very good run defense and this is who we play next.

UCLA 211 yards rushing

Mich St 212 yards rushing

OSU 203 yards rushing

ISU 204 yards rushing

 

[teachercd]

The propaganda that iowa has a good defense just needs to stop.

They play crap teams and iowa shortens the game because they suck on offense.  

What they have is a "patient" defense.  

 

[desertshox]

You're missing my point, I don't care about the overall stats and I am not comparing us to anyone else, the numbers were just a reference. I am simply looking at what we've given up the last 5 games to guage how we will do against Iowa. 

Wouldn't you also need to compare iowa's offense to the teams we played to guage how we will do against iowa?

 

[runningblind]

OK, going by your evaluation.  You use the 4 games we just lost.  Let's look at Iowa's losses.  Iowa is usually considered to have a very good run defense and this is who we play next.

UCLA 211 yards rushing

Mich St 212 yards rushing

OSU 203 yards rushing

ISU 204 yards rushing

Wouldn't you also need to compare iowa's offense to the teams we played to guage how we will do against iowa?

Absolutely, and that is a great data point.   This was just the blackshirts thread, so I was only talking about our defense to start with.  I think both teams should be able to run the ball in this one, and hopefully our passing game makes the difference overall as they simply can't throw it well.  

 

[Red Five]

Here is our rushing defense vs B1G teams compared to that teams rushing average.

Opponent / NU rush defense ypc / Opponent total ypc

Illinois 4.26 ypc / 4.20 ypc

Purdue 1.61 ypc / 4.24 ypc

Rutgers 2.44 ypc / 4.40 ypc

Indiana 6.52 ypc / 4.40 ypc

Ohio St 2.06 ypc / 5.15 ypc

UCLA 4.63 ypc / 3.15 ypc

USC 5.69 ypc / 5.17 ypc

Wisconsin 4.60 ypc / 4.54 ypc

In order, this is how our rush defense fared compared to average

Ohio St - 3.09 ypc

Purdue -2.63 ypc

Rutgers -1.96 ypc

Illinois +0.06 ypc

Wisconsin +0.06 ypc

USC +0.52 ypc

UCLA +1.48 ypc

Indiana +2.12 ypc

Really good rush defense vs OSU, Purdue, and Rutgers.  Average rush defense vs Illinois, Wisconsin, and USC.  Bad rush defense vs UCLA and Indiana.

 

[desertshox]

Absolutely, and that is a great data point.   This was just the blackshirts thread, so I was only talking about our defense to start with.  I think both teams should be able to run the ball in this one, and hopefully our passing game makes the difference overall as they simply can't throw it well.  

This is strictly about the Nebraska defense. If Iowa is one dimensional and can't pass, that plays into Nebraska's hand. That's why you have to compare what the 5 previous offense do compared to what Iowa's does. Four of those offenses were able to exploit our weakness and take advantage of the over aggressiveness. Will Iowa be able to do what those other offenses did?

 

[runningblind]

This is strictly about the Nebraska defense. If Iowa is one dimensional and can't pass, that plays into Nebraska's hand. That's why you have to compare what the 5 previous offense do compared to what Iowa's does. Four of those offenses were able to exploit our weakness and take advantage of the over aggressiveness. Will Iowa be able to do what those other offenses did?

I think they will have a bit of success passing, specifically due to that over aggressiveness you noted.  We will be all about stopping the run, and it will lull our secondary to sleep on a few.  I also think they still will be able to run it even though we know it is coming, but hope I am wrong there. 

 

[gossamorharpy]

So, we are supposed to not count our easier games while comparing to team’s stats that include their easier games?

No you count the games but you also look at it subjectively. Almost half of our schedule ranks in the bottom 20 offensively in the nation. It was a cakewalk of a schedule, outside of Ohio state and Indiana the only other offense we played with a pulse was Colorado who doesn’t run the ball.

its a shame we didn’t have Dana to start the year. Our defense is good enough to have us sitting at 9-2/8-3 right now and fringe playoff contention. It’s also fair to say that they did not play to the fair expectations coming into the season, most notably the secondary and our slow af linebacker vets

 

[gossamorharpy]

If the defense would have taken a big step forward this year like many of you expected,  we would still be watching Satt stink on Saturdays for another year.... and Tony would be the top HC prospect going into the firing season.   It could be worse guys. 

So we should be thankful the defense has underperformed and been inconsistent? Got it 

 

[SouthLincoln Husker]

Fan expectations were maybe too high based our veterans DL & 2nd yr in white's system.  The problem lies in losing some good linebacker & having no depth. We are slow & don't tackle well;  we need an upgrade in talent at this position.  We also lost 2 quality safeties & hill was playing really well until the injury.  Secondary is young under a new coach. This squad who has not been great, has played well enough to win.  Excluding indiana.

 

[Mavric]

The problem with your approach is all of the top defenses also played s#!tty opponents that made their stats look better. We probably are one of the top 25 rush defenses in reality, but we're not elite. The way you're looking at it isn't a good way to judge how good the defense is, because probably 90% of the teams you're comparing us too have let conference opponents rush for more on them.

I agree with your point.  But I think @runningblind's point was that the trend is decidedly in the wrong direction.  Probably not 60th.  But probably closer to that than 25th.

TeamRankings.com lets you look at stats over everyone's last three games (though really annoying that they don't change the ranking number to correlate).  Over that time, we are 61st in rushing yards allowed per game and 107th in yards allowed per attempt.

 

[Red Five]

I agree with your point.  But I think @runningblind's point was that the trend is decidedly in the wrong direction.  Probably not 60th.  But probably closer to that than 25th.

TeamRankings.com lets you look at stats over everyone's last three games (though really annoying that they don't change the ranking number to correlate).  Over that time, we are 61st in rushing yards allowed per game and 107th in yards allowed per attempt.

It all depends on where you cut off "recent".  If you go back 4 games our rushing defense stats will look much better because we shut down OSU's rushing game.  Go back 5 games and the stats will look worse because you are including Indiana.

And if you want to get real "recent", you could say we played good against the run vs Wisconsin holding them to 50 yards below their average (115 vs 164)  Or you could look at it differently and say we played their run game to expectation, since they gained 4.60 ypc vs NU compared to 4.54 ypc for their season average.

 

[Mavric]

It all depends on where you cut off "recent".  If you go back 4 games our rushing defense stats will look much better because we shut down OSU's rushing game.  Go back 5 games and the stats will look worse because you are including Indiana.

Eh ... "much better" is subjective.  Over the past three games we've allowed 124 yards per game.  Over the past four it's 109.  That's better but not all that significant of a difference.  Similarly, over the past three games we've allowed 5.0 yards per attempt.  Over the past four it's 4.2.  Again, that's better but still not very good.

The point is we've definitely been trending the wrong way for some time.

 

[floridacorn]

The propaganda that iowa has a good defense just needs to stop.

They play crap teams and iowa shortens the game because they suck on offense.  

What they have is a "patient" defense.  

I believe there's a lot of truth in this.  At the risk of parsing your words I would say they have been good, but have never been as elite as their stats & rankings suggest.  I would say they are very disciplined and force offenses to be patient. 

As Cover 4 evolved into the more sophisticated man match quarters coverages we see today, they still play it closer to that C4 umbrella coverage than anybody else.  It's always reminded me of the OU game plan vs FSU in the 2001 NC game.  And while saying that, somehow Whipple was able to get Trey Palmer behind their coverage multiple times with a common sucker route.