2024 Election Prediction Thread

[knapplc]

So you didn’t support Biden at all for reelection over the last 4 years? 

Yes and no. I didn't want Joe to run in 2020, for precisely this reason. But considering Orange Man Bad was the alternative to Joe Biden, I grudgingly supported him. 

Also, knowing Harris would preserve democracy in the event Biden died, I was OK with that. Orange Man Bad dying and leaving Vance in charge? No, I don't support that.

 

[teachercd]

I think he will make it through his term personally. If Biden made it Trump probably will as well. 

Yeah, this is where I am at too.  My guess, even if he gets really bad is that he will sort of just "ride it out" and hide until his term is over.  

Now, with that said, he is old and just might actually die in office.  

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

They're going to get it. And when he dies in office in the next year or two, JD Vance is going to be president. 

America is going to reap what it has sown. And it will be a bitter harvest.

The one... positive? if you want to call it that, is that Trump policies are massively unpopular. The median voter being massively stupid won't suddenly change. 

If Republicans use their political capital to repeal the ACA, for example, voters will react with extreme negativity. If Trump institutes large tariffs leading to likely price hikes, the public will be massively unhappy. 

The real damage is going to be to the institutions that the average person doesn't want to pay attention to. I also think the damage for what it means to politics in general is bad. Democrats decided to pass massive infrastructure, manufacturing, and pro-union legislation in order to appeal to working class voters in the Rust belt and Sun belt and got absolutely no political benefit for doing so.

The signal to politicians is... why waste political capital on bills to focus on and to help constituents when they're polarized via culture war issues and low-information voters decide based on what they pay to door-dash taco bell? It's going to take a long time for the public to first - feel the pain when politicians ignore them, because both Republicans and Democrats will do so because that's what voters want - and then for politicians to learn to once again respond to them.

 

[knapplc]

The one... positive? if you want to call it that, is that Trump policies are massively unpopular. The median voter being massively stupid won't suddenly change. 

If Republicans use their political capital to repeal the ACA, for example, voters will react with extreme negativity. If Trump institutes large tariffs leading to likely price hikes, the public will be massively unhappy. 

The real damage is going to be to the institutions that the average person doesn't want to pay attention to. I also think the damage for what it means to politics in general is bad. Democrats decided to pass massive infrastructure, manufacturing, and pro-union legislation and got absolutely no political benefit for doing so.

The signal to politicians is... why waste political capital on bills to focus on constituents when they're polarized via culture war issues and low-information voters decide based on what they pay to door-dash taco bell? It's going to take a long time for the public to first - feel the pain when politicians ignore them, because both Republicans and Democrats will do so because that's what voters want - and then for politicians to learn to once again respond to them.

I'll believe it when I see it. 

Voters didn't punish him for his rape conviction.

Voters didn't punish him for stealing classified documents.

Voters didn't punish him for cozying up to dictators.

Voters didn't punish him for January 6. 

Voters appear to think none of that matters. They appear to be enthralled with the culture war the Republicans have dumped into the political arena. 

 

[nic]

Is Trump currently winning the popular vote count? If he does win the popular vote, does that mean states like California will have to give him their electoral votes?

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'll believe it when I see it. 

Voters didn't punish him for his rape conviction.

Voters didn't punish him for stealing classified documents.

Voters didn't punish him for cozying up to dictators.

Voters didn't punish him for January 6. 

Voters appear to think none of that matters. They appear to be enthralled with the culture war the Republicans have dumped into the political arena. 

Voters don't care about any of those things, they care if egg prices go up 20 cents. Voters went into the voting booth yesterday with a very simple mindset.

When Trump President, price low. When Trump not President price high. Vote Trump. The results of last nights election is pretty much the same as other Western Democracies, voters blamed incumbent governments and they pretty much all lost by large margins. The margins in the US are probably going to be slightly less than other countries because of polarization.

If and when he passes policies that negatively impact people personally, like millions of people losing health care coverage because of a repeal of the ACA, Republicans will become massively unpopular. Keep in mind, young voters under 26 on their parents insurance have absolutely no idea which law allows that to happen. All they've ever known is that they get to stay onto their parents health insurance. They have no idea that Trump might take it away from them. Ditto with policies that may raise their costs, like tariffs. 

 

[knapplc]

If and when he passes policies that negatively impact people personally, like millions of people losing health care coverage because of a repeal of the ACA, Republicans will become massively unpopular. Keep in mind, young voters under 26 on their parents insurance have absolutely no idea which law allows that to happen. All they've ever known is that they get to stay onto their parents health insurance. They have no idea that Trump might take it away from them. Ditto with policies that may raise their costs, like tariffs. 

This is entirely possible. Perhaps the pain has to be personal for people to pay attention. But, by the time the electorate wakes up to what they've done to themselves, is it going to be too late? This country is going to change radically in the next couple of years. 

 

[teachercd]

Voters don't care about any of those things, they care if egg prices go up 20 cents. Voters went into the voting booth yesterday with a very simple mindset.

When Trump President, price low. When Trump not President price high. Vote Trump. The results of last nights election is pretty much the same as other Western Democracies, voters blamed incumbent governments and they pretty much all lost by large margins. The margins in the US are probably going to be slightly less than other countries because of polarization.

If and when he passes policies that negatively impact people personally, like millions of people losing health care coverage because of a repeal of the ACA, Republicans will become massively unpopular. Keep in mind, young voters under 26 on their parents insurance have absolutely no idea which law allows that to happen. All they've ever known is that they get to stay onto their parents health insurance. They have no idea that Trump might take it away from them. Ditto with policies that may raise their costs, like tariffs. 

This is spot on.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

This is entirely possible. Perhaps the pain has to be personal for people to pay attention. But, by the time the electorate wakes up to what they've done to themselves, is it going to be too late? This country is going to change radically in the next couple of years. 

Yeah, that's politics. 

This is why I've been saying that if Republicans win, I hope they follow through on the policy proposals they've sold to the public. They should repeal the ACA, they should deport millions of people, they should institute tariffs on imports.

Most of their policy proposals are going to be harmful to the voters who just elected him who did so because they long for the days of $1.50 gas without understanding why gas was $1.50. Those voters need to actually feel the pain of their policies, it's not enough to tell them how dumb they are ahead of time.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Is Trump currently winning the popular vote count? If he does win the popular vote, does that mean states like California will have to give him their electoral votes?

No, if you're referring to the National Popular Vote Compact, that doesn't go into effect until enough states join it to equal 270 electoral votes. Until then, they allocate their EC votes just like any other state, to the states winner.

 

[Archy1221]

So you think the Nazis in America voted for Harris? 

Don’t know.  There wasn’t exit polling on them

I do know there was exit polling on Hispanics and African Americans which showed a move towards Trump.   Strange thing to do if he is indeed worse than Hitler and a Nazi. 

 

[Archy1221]

Imagine a world where she told the most popular podcast host that he could come to her. She knew she couldn’t talk to him for three hours because she is a dud and couldn’t read off the script due to having no persona. 
 

My Venezuelan partner, whose family and self supported Trump, would gladly laugh in your face at your dictator comment. If you want to talk to them about what that ‘entails,’ let me know. 

Gotta love when middle America white dude tells a family who escaped a dictatorship, they are morons and are voting for a dictatorship!  

 

[Mierin]

Yeah, that's politics. 

This is why I've been saying that if Republicans win, I hope they follow through on the policy proposals they've sold to the public. They should repeal the ACA, they should deport millions of people, they should institute tariffs on imports.

Most of their policy proposals are going to be harmful to the voters who just elected him who did so because they long for the days of $1.50 gas without understanding why gas was $1.50. Those voters need to actually feel the pain of their policies, it's not enough to tell them how dumb they are ahead of time.

I agree. Bandaid needs to be ripped off painfully and immediately, taking skin with it. 

 

[Mierin]

This is entirely possible. Perhaps the pain has to be personal for people to pay attention. But, by the time the electorate wakes up to what they've done to themselves, is it going to be too late? This country is going to change radically in the next couple of years. 

I think it happening quick is preferable to a slow burn. A slow burn allows more irreversible change IMO, and potentially allows for another real election where idiots are elected.

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

Don’t know.  There wasn’t exit polling on them

I do know there was exit polling on Hispanics and African Americans which showed a move towards Trump.   Strange thing to do if he is indeed worse than Hitler and a Nazi. 

No one said worse than Hitler or a Nazi but that's a nice straw man. You can try to dodge but there is no way in the world you actually think Nazis are not all voting for trump. There is a reason he specifically says stuff like the enemy within. But yes you are totally correct slightly more black and Hispanic people voted voted for trump relative to his opponent this year so Nazis said nope this time we support the woman for president and not for Trump again.