2024 Husker Football Schedule

I gotta see whatever model produces 11 wins for a team that couldn't outscore their opponents last year with one of the best scoring defenses in football. 11 wins against 5 bowl teams, per this model. That defense better not miss a beat and that offense better take an enormous leap.

Don't even get me started on UCLA. If I saw that result pop up, I'd be looking for an error somewhere.

 
brophog said:
I gotta see whatever model produces 11 wins for a team that couldn't outscore their opponents last year with one of the best scoring defenses in football. 11 wins against 5 bowl teams, per this model. That defense better not miss a beat and that offense better take an enormous leap.
Click to expand...


I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more? The schedule is not difficult in the slightest, OSU is an L but as much as I hate to say it they can win the rest of them.

 
Husker in WI said:
I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more? The schedule is not difficult in the slightest, OSU is an L but as much as I hate to say it they can win the rest of them.
Click to expand...
That's the thing, it wouldn't take an enormous leap on offense at all.  If the model thinks they can even be top 80 on offense, (although you can argue going from 120 something to top 80 might actually be an enormous leap relatively), and the defense is just as good, they can totally win 11.  People here love to bag on Iowa, but none really seem to actually pay much attention to Iowa.  :lol:   Not that I blame anyone for that, they are boring as sh!+!

Personally I think the defense will take a step back, and while the offense will be better, it won't be that much better.  I am thinking 7-8 wins is the sweet spot for Iowa this year, same as for Nebraska. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Husker in WI said:
I mean they were the 2nd worse scoring offense last year and got to 10 wins. They really need an enormous leap to get one more?
Click to expand...


Yes, they would likely need an enormous leap to get 11 wins.

When you look at points scored and points allowed, they were a 7 win team last year, not a 10 win team. This is why Vegas has them at 7.5, despite that cupcake schedule. Whenever you see a team like Iowa that won 10 games last year, has an easy schedule this year, returns a lot of top players and Vegas just seems off their rocker with a line 3 games off that expectation, ask yourself why that it is.

I'm not saying the bookmakers are right or that Iowa cant win 10+ games, but they don't set lines that far off public perception without a damn good reason.

runningblind said:
If the model thinks they can even be top 80 on offense, (although you can argue going from 120 something to top 80 might actually be an enormous leap relatively), and the defense is just as good, they can totally win 11
Click to expand...


They were 130th last year in scoring. Improving to 80th would be about 9 points per game more for a 57% improvement.

Assuming that and the defense gives up the same paltry sum of a year ago, it's an estimated 10 wins making that 50 rank jump. If the defense even gave up a couple more points per game, it drops to about 9 wins.

To get to an estimated 11 wins, Iowa at it's current defensive scoring rate they would need about 28.5 ppg of offensive scoring. If their scoring defense gave up a couple more points per game, that number shoots up to 31+.

For Iowa to get to 11 wins, using an approximation technique like pythagorean win expectation, Iowa has to come close to doubling its scoring. That's not impossible, even Ferentz has seasons of more than 30 points, but where does the offensive improvement come from?

 
brophog said:
Yes, they would likely need an enormous leap to get 11 wins.

When you look at points scored and points allowed, they were a 7 win team last year, not a 10 win team. This is why Vegas has them at 7.5, despite that cupcake schedule. Whenever you see a team like Iowa that won 10 games last year, has an easy schedule this year, returns a lot of top players and Vegas just seems off their rocker with a line 3 games off that expectation, ask yourself why that it is.

I'm not saying the bookmakers are right or that Iowa cant win 10+ games, but they don't set lines that far off public perception without a damn good reason.

They were 130th last year in scoring. Improving to 80th would be about 9 points per game more for a 57% improvement.

Assuming that and the defense gives up the same paltry sum of a year ago, it's an estimated 10 wins making that 50 rank jump. If the defense even gave up a couple more points per game, it drops to about 9 wins.

To get to an estimated 11 wins, Iowa at it's current defensive scoring rate they would need about 28.5 ppg of offensive scoring. If their scoring defense gave up a couple more points per game, that number shoots up to 31+.

For Iowa to get to 11 wins, using an approximation technique like pythagorean win expectation, Iowa has to come close to doubling its scoring. That's not impossible, even Ferentz has seasons of more than 30 points, but where does the offensive improvement come from?
Click to expand...
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

They gave up less than 15 ppg last year, so saying they need close to 30 to win 11 games is silly.  They simply need to score more than the opponent, which they have shown for a decade they are good at doing.   Games are played on the field and not in probabilities as we all know. 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27/p3

They scored 15.4 ppg, 129th in the country.  If they even improved to 100th, that would be 22-23 points per game which would be plenty in nearly every game with that defense, which is what the model is going off of.

Do I think they win 11?  Of course not, but I wouldn't be shocked either. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This is so exciting yo !

@ Ohio State - October 26

UCLA - November 2

@ USC - November 16

Wisconsin - November 23

@ Iowa - November 29

Huskers are going to face these guys and be like

 "Oh yeah? Whatchu gonna do, brah..."

tumblr_pzbh9bq3P31uvyu9yo2_540.gifv


 
BoNeyard said:
If you ignore the past 7 years, you look at Nebraska's schedule and there is potential for a 7-0 start and finishing 8-4 or 9-3. 
Click to expand...




And it’d feel good…

I know myself, and if we go 7-0 I’ll be thinking about a national championship. But today’s Moiraine would be ecstatic if we go 7-0 and then beat 2 of those teams. 

Although I’m already way too hopeful and thinking we could definitely beat 3 of them. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BoNeyard said:
If you ignore the past 7 years, you look at Nebraska's schedule and there is potential for a 7-0 start and finishing 8-4 or 9-3. 
Click to expand...
7-0 to start and losing 4 of 5 to finish, probably including both Iowa and Wisconsin would be pretty stinking lame and I would question whether or not we are actually, truly, better this year than last. I'd much rather start 5-2, and beat 3 of those last 5 to get to 8-4. That would be way more satisfying and to me show more progress.  No more crapping the bed in November.

 
Not sure I buy Kansas State/Tulane - let alone Auburn/Cal - being more watchable than Nebraska/Colorado.

But there is a lot of Husker watchability down the stretch!


GVrXl22WIAALMbw


 
Mavric said:
Not sure I buy Kansas State/Tulane - let alone Auburn/Cal - being more watchable than Nebraska/Colorado.

But there is a lot of Husker watchability down the stretch!


Click to expand...
I was confused until I saw that it's based on power rankings. This is honestly just a stupid thing to give the label of "watchability." It would be hard to come up with a real list because there are a lot of factors to it, whereas the way they came up with this is very lazy and simple.

Here is my attempt, assuming there are 67 games between 134 teams.

#1 Texas at Michigan, obviously
#T2 Colorado at Nebraska because it's an old rivalry and people are interested in watching Deion either because they love him or want to watch him fail. And some might want to see what Raiola does.
#T2 NC State vs Tennessee
#4 Cal at Auburn 
#5 Arkansas at OSU

#25 SC at UK - this is 2 unranked SEC teams, but knowing how rankings work I'm sure the winner will jump to #15 after this game and the other team will receive votes if it's a close game. It's no more interesting to people outside the SEC than Nebraska vs. Minnesota is outside the B1G.

#39 KSU at Tulane - KSU is ranked but this looks boring as heck. And if it's not boring, KSU sucks.
#40 ISU at Iowa because Iowa is the least watchable team in America but both are in P4 conferences and it's a rivalry.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Moiraine said:
I was confused until I saw that it's based on power rankings. This is honestly just a stupid thing to give the label of "watchability." It would be hard to come up with a real list because there are a lot of factors to it, whereas the way they came up with this is very lazy and simple.

Here is my attempt, assuming there are 67 games between 134 teams.

#1 Texas at Michigan, obviously
#T2 Colorado at Nebraska because it's an old rivalry and people are interested in watching Deion either because they love him or want to watch him fail. And some might want to see what Raiola does.
#T2 NC State vs Tennessee
#4 Cal at Auburn 
#5 Arkansas at OSU

#25 SC at UK - this is 2 unranked SEC teams, but knowing how rankings work I'm sure the winner will jump to #15 after this game and the other team will receive votes if it's a close game. It's no more interesting to people outside the SEC than Nebraska vs. Minnesota is outside the B1G.

#39 KSU at Tulane - KSU is ranked but this looks boring as heck. And if it's not boring, KSU sucks.
#40 ISU at Iowa because Iowa is the least watchable team in America but both are in P4 conferences and it's a rivalry.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of it, except Iowa/IA State.  Who doesn't like watching a good train wreck?  I'd throw that at #4.  I love tuning in to see just how bad they are on offense, and if they still win despite having no business doing so.  I don't watch the whole thing mind you, that's a flip over and check in kind of game.

 
We'll see if we can really "Chase 3" and win the close ones.  

Considering I doubt this weekends game would be on this list, we can rack up the wins if we can win the (expected to be) close ones.


 
Back
Top