Interesting matchup. SMC has scored under 75 in a game 21 times. Winning this game would be it's 30th victory of the season. They've won 8 straight. And finished ahead of Gonzaga in conference. So they have confidence and a real good team that wins a lot.
Meanwhile Alabama has scored 95 points in a game (or more) 13 times! So if St Mary's can keep this game in the high 60's low 70's then they will take Bama out of their game and then it becomes a nail biter finish.
Bama is also 5-5 in their last 10 games. But, those losses came to Florida (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Mizzou. Most teams would lose those games as well. But worth noting that playing .500 ball can stall a team's overall confidence.